A predictability study of simulated North Atlantic multidecadal variability

 The North Atlantic is one of the few places on the globe where the atmosphere is linked to the deep ocean through air–sea interaction. While the internal variability of the atmosphere by itself is only predictable over a period of one to two weeks, climate variations are potentially predictable for much longer periods of months or even years because of coupling with the ocean. This work presents details from the first study to quantify the predictability for simulated multidecadal climate variability over the North Atlantic. The model used for this purpose is the GFDL coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model used extensively for studies of global warming and natural climate variability. This model contains fluctuations of the North Atlantic and high-latitude oceanic circulation with variability concentrated in the 40–60 year range. Oceanic predictability is quantified through analysis of the time-dependent behavior of large-scale empirical orthogonal function (EOF) patterns for the meridional stream function, dynamic topography, 170 m temperature, surface temperature and surface salinity. The results indicate that predictability in the North Atlantic depends on three main physical mechanisms. The first involves the oceanic deep convection in the subpolar region which acts to integrate atmospheric fluctuations, thus providing for a red noise oceanic response as elaborated by Hasselmann. The second involves the large-scale dynamics of the thermohaline circulation, which can cause the oceanic variations to have an oscillatory character on the multidecadal time scale. The third involves nonlocal effects on the North Atlantic arising from periodic anomalous fresh water transport advecting southward from the polar regions in the East Greenland Current. When the multidecadal oscillatory variations of the thermohaline circulation are active, the first and second EOF patterns for the North Atlantic dynamic topography have predictability time scales on the order of 10–20 y, whereas EOF-1 of SST has predictability time scales of 5–7 y. When the thermohaline variability has weak multidecadal power, the Hasselmann mechanism is dominant and the predictability is reduced by at least a factor of two. When the third mechanism is in an extreme phase, the North Atlantic dynamic topography patterns realize a 10–20 year predictability time scale. Additional analysis of SST in the Greenland Sea, in a region associated with the southward propagating fresh water anomalies, indicates the potential for decadal scale predictability for this high latitude region as well. The model calculations also allow insight into regional variations of predictability, which might be useful information for the design of a monitoring system for the North Atlantic. Predictability appears to break down most rapidly in regions of active convection in the high-latitude regions of the North Atlantic. Received: 28 October 1996 / Accepted: 21 March 1997     

Absence of olivine orientation fabric in highly shocked Martian dunite

Shock is often given as the cause for many observations in meteorites due to the assumed previous exposure of most meteorites to at least one impact event that ultimately led to their ejection from their parent body. Here we present electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) results on a substantially shocked dunitic achondrite, chassignite Northwest Africa (NWA) 8694, and question the general culpability of shock exposure for the formation of preferred orientation fabrics of meteoritic olivine crystals. Despite the ubiquitous presence of substantial shock indicators, the EBSD results for NWA 8694 reveal an absence of preferred orientation of olivine crystals, displaying instead an overall random fabric. We propose that the passage of shock waves through olivine crystals within a solid, crystalline, dunitic rock does not produce an overall preferred orientation, nor is it likely to actively form a whole‐rock random fabric but instead has likely no bearing on the formation of olivine orientation fabrics.     

Self-consistent computation of γ-ray spectra due to proton–proton interactions in black hole systems

In the inner regions of an accretion disc around a black hole, relativistic protons can interact with ambient matter to produce electrons, positrons and γ-rays. The resultant steady-state electron and positron particle distributions are self-consistently computed taking into account Coulomb and Compton cooling,  e⁻ e⁺  pair production (due to γ–γ annihilation) and pair annihilation. While earlier works used the diffusion approximation to obtain the particle distributions, here we solve a more general integro-differential equation that correctly takes into account the large change in particle energy that occurs when the leptons Compton scatter off hard X-rays. Thus this formalism can also be applied to the hard state of black hole systems, where the dominant ambient photons are hard X-rays. The corresponding photon energy spectrum is calculated and compared with broad-band data of black hole binaries in different spectral states. The results indicate that the γ-ray spectra  ( E > 0.8 MeV)  of both the soft and hard spectral states and the entire hard X-ray/γ-ray spectrum of the ultrasoft state could be due to p–p interactions. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that there always exists in these systems a γ-ray spectral component due to p–p interactions that can contribute between 0.5 and 10 per cent of the total bolometric luminosity. The model predicts that GLAST would be able to detect black hole binaries and provide evidence for the presence of non-thermal protons, which in turn would give insight into the energy dissipation process and jet formation in these systems.     

Zeeman-doppler imaging: A new option for magnetic field study of Ap and solar-type stars

In the task of studying stellar magnetic fields, polarimetric methods have been intensively used in Ap stars. But the observational material classically used to reconstruct stellar magnetic structures (average longitudinal magnetic field as a function of rotational phase) is not rich enough in spatial information to derive geometries more complex than centered or decentered dipoles.In solar-type stars, all evidences of activity recently detected on their surfaces (starspots, flares, ...) indicate they are most likely magnetic stars. But polarimetric methods have always failed in these stars, probably due to the complex magnetic topologies encountered which even prevented until now a simple detection (Borra, Edwards, and Mayor, 1984). With the Zeeman broadening measurement technique proposed by Robinson (1980), no reliable results can be derived for rapid rotators, which are otherwise presumed to be the best candidates for magnetic detections. Once more, if temperature inhomogeneity charts are already available for solar-type stars (Vogt, 1987), spatial information on their magnetic distributions has conversely not yet been obtained.The new option, recently proposed by Semel (1989) and qualified by Donati, Semel, and Praderie (1989), is based on the rotational modulation study of a rapid rotator Stokes parameter V(), obtained with both high spectral resolution R, and high signal-to-noise ratio S/N. Since the magnetic information used refers to localized strips on the stellar disc (as a consequence of the star rotation), multipolar structures can thus be resolved.A new instrumentation and observing procedure have been defined for ZDI, in order to obtain very high S/N data. The method has been successfully tested on two bright magnetic Ap stars: a magnetic detection was obtained on UMa and a 15-point phase coverage of ² CVn is available for the reconstruction of complete 2D abundance and magnetic mappings of its photosphere.Concerning solar-type stars, a numerical simulation was carried out in order to determine the observational constraints required for the detection of typical magnetic field similar to those reported in slow rotators with the Robinson method (Saar, 1988). The specifications needed are S/N 400 per 40 mÅ pixel and R - 6 × 10⁴.     

The vibrational characteristics of a twelve-storey steel frame building

The Ralph M. Parsons World Headquarters building, a twelve-storey steel frame structure, was subjected to a series of forced vibration tests. The natural frequencies, three-dimensional mode shapes and damping coefficients of nine modes of vibration were determined. Other features of this investigation included the study of non-linearities associated with increasing levels of response, detailed measurements of the deformation of the first floor and the ground surrounding the structure, and measurements of strain in one of the columns of the structure during forced excitation. The dynamic characteristics of the building determined by these tests are compared to those predicted by a finite element model of the structure. The properties of primarily translational modes are predicted reasonably well, but adequate prediction of torsional motions is not obtained. The comparison between measured and predicted strains suggests that estimates of stress determined from finite element analyses of buildings might be within 25 per cent of those experienced by the structure for a known excitation.     

Fluctuations of electron precipitation to the dayside auroral zone modulated by compression and expansion of the magnetosphere

Concurrent variations of CNA fluctuations and geomagnetic fluctuations are classified into Type 1 (substorm-type), Type 2 (Pc5-type), and Type 3 which is the object of the present study. Type 3 apparently has peculiar characteristics in that CNA fluctuations at a certain auroral-zone station show a pronounced positive correlation with magnetic fluctuations at distant low-latitude stations. The magnetic fluctuations of this type are identified to generalized Si which tends to take place much more frequently than the so-called Si. The CNA fluctuations of this type are found to take place on the dayside auroral zone only when preceded by a magnetic substorm on the night side. Considering the change of the growth rate of electron cyclotron instability and enhancement of pitch angle diffusion due to the change of magnetic field intensity, the following model is proposed to explain the occurrence mechanism of Type 3 concurrent variations. The CNA fluctuations take place only when two conditions are satisfied; generation of the accelerated electrons in association with substorm onset and modulation of the precipitation of the electrons by compression and expansion of the magnetosphere, in other words, by generalized Si.     

Impact of lightning on organic matter-rich soils: influence of soil grain size and organic matter content on underground fires

A detailed study was carried out on a piece of land that had been struck by lightning during the violent rainstorm that raged over the Island of S?o Miguel (Azores Archipelago) in late October 2006. Temperature and gas measurements (CO₂, CO, H₂S and CH₄) were performed in four study trenches, dug in an area of ∼3 m², where an underground fire had been initiated by the impact with a lightning stroke, followed by the emission of a column of gases and smoke. The soil under study was originally a well-pedogenized about 80 cm thick bed, made of volcanic clayey to silty tephra fallouts and contained 5.5–9.7% of organic matter. The underground fire was monitored for one week and revealed a peak release of 404 ppm CO and 3.4% CO₂ originating from a horizon located about 45 cm under the soil surface. Measurements of temperature, performed one week after the impact, indicated a maximum value of 326°C inside the soil, while 516.5°C were measured on the surface of a lava block interred about 20 cm under the surface. Subsequently, a stratigraphic and sedimentologic study proved the role of the grain-size of the soil and of the organic matter content of the different horizons of the impact area, in determining the ratio between anoxic/oxidised combustion conditions and in the progress of the process itself. It was also noticed that combustion was not total all over in the soil bed and that the process had slightly migrated toward SW during the observation period. The combustion process went on for about ten days, in spite of several other violent rainstorms, until it was artificially extinguished through the excavations made to obtain study trenches. This particular circumstance evidenced the potential natural hazard represented by this kind of atmospheric event, especially in a land where the volcanic nature of the soil may easily mislead inexperienced observers and, consequently, delay proper action.     

Floating and fixed artificial habitats: Spatial and temporal patterns of benthic communities in a coral reef environment

While natural marine habitats with motion capabilities, e.g., kelps and seaweeds, have been studied alongside their associated fouling communities, little is known of the effect of motion on the communities of floating artificial habitats such as buoys, rafts, and pontoons, particularly in tropical systems. Hydrodynamic features greatly differ between floating and fixed artificial substrata, which in turn affect the structure of their associated communities. This study tested the hypothesis that floating and fixed artificial installations in a tropical reef system (Eilat, Red Sea) would support different benthic communities throughout space and time. Specifically, we examined differences in communities recruited onto settlement plates between floating and fixed installations deployed at three different sites, along a two-year monitoring period. The three sites exhibited distinct differences in species assemblages between the monitoring dates (6, 12, 18 and 24 months post deployment), mainly between the first and the last two dates. The average level of dissimilarity between floating and fixed installations increased over time at all sites. Over 50% of the dissimilarity between the floating and fixed installations resulted from five taxonomic groups i.e., bryozoans, bivalves, barnacles, sponges, including the amount of bare space on the settlement plates. The contribution of these groups to the dissimilarity changed both temporally within each site, and spatially among sites. The observed differences were related to the hydrodynamic characteristics of floating and fixed habitats, interacting with biotic features such as predation, successional processes and seasonality; and abiotic features including small-scale spatial changes, light, and position in the water column.