Chinese summer extreme rainfall often brings huge economic losses, so the prediction of summer extreme rainfall is necessary. This study focuses on the predictability of the leading mode of Chinese summer extreme rainfall from empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis. The predictors used in this study are Arctic sea ice concentration(ASIC) and regional sea surface temperature(SST) in selected optimal time periods. The most important role that Arctic sea ice(ASI) plays in the appearance of EOF1 may be strengthening the high pressure over North China, thereby preventing water vapor from going north. The contribution of SST is mainly at low latitudes and characterized by a significant cyclone anomaly over South China. The forecast models using predictor ASIC(PA), SST(PS), and the two together(PAS) are established by using data from 1980 to 2004. An independent forecast is made for the last 11 years(2005-2015). The correlation coefficient(COR) skills between the observed and cross-validation reforecast principal components(PC) of the PA, PS, and PAS models are 0.47, 0.66, and 0.76, respectively. These values indicate that SST is a major cause of Chinese summer extreme rainfall during 1980-2004. The COR skill of the PA model during the independent forecast period of 2004-2015 is 0.7, which is significantly higher than those of the PS and PAS models. Thus, the main factor influencing Chinese summer extreme rainfall in recent years has changed from low latitudes to high latitudes. The impact of ASI on Chinese summer extreme rainfall is becoming increasingly significant. 相似文献
More than 240 items of historical records containing climatic information were retrieved from official historical books, local
chronicles, annals and regional meteorological disaster yearbooks. By using moisture index and flood/drought (F/D) index obtained
from the above information, the historical climate change, namely wet-dry conditions in borderland of Shaanxi Province, Gansu
Province and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (BSGN, mainly included Ningxialu, Hezhoulu, Gongchanglu, Fengyuanlu and Yan’anlu
in the Yuan Dynasty) was studied. The results showed that the climate of the region was generally dry and the ratio between
drought and flood disasters was 85/38 during the period of 1208–1369. According to the frequencies of drought-flood disasters,
the whole period could be divided into three phases. (1) 1208–1240: drought dominated the phase with occasional flood disasters.
(2) 1240–1320: long-time drought disasters and extreme drought events happened frequently. (3) 1320–1369: drought disasters
were less severe when flood and drought disasters happened alternately. Besides, the reconstructed wet-dry change curve revealed
obvious transition and periodicity in the Mongol-Yuan Period. The transitions occurred in 1230 and 1325. The wet-dry change
revealed 10- and 23-year quasi-periods which were consistent with solar cycles, indicating that solar activity had affected
the wet-dry conditions of the study region in the Mongol-Yuan Period. The reconstructed results were consistent with two other
study results reconstructed from natural evidences, and were similar to another study results from historical documents. All
the above results showed that the climate in BSGN was characterized by long-time dry condition with frequent severe drought
disasters during 1258 to 1308. Thus, these aspects of climatic changes might have profound impacts on local vegetation and
socio-economic system. 相似文献
为了研究碱湖N2O释放速率及其对盐度与pH的响应,选取内蒙古大克泊碱湖的五个沉积物样点,采用15N同位素标记模拟实验,研究反硝化和厌氧氨氧化的速率、相对比例和气体产生情况,揭示高盐和高pH对碱湖氮移除的影响。发现大克泊湖潜在氮移除速率为0~16.06 n mol N mL-1 h-1,潜在反硝化速率为0~12.62 n mol N mL-1 h-1,潜在厌氧氨氧化速率为0~9.81 n mol N mL-1 h-1;当盐度34.00 g·L-1与pH 10.22时,厌氧氨氧化对氮移除贡献较大,达到43.18%~71.79%。反硝化过程气体产物以N2为主,几乎无N2O气体释出。另外,该区域潜在氮移除速率与pH呈正相关关系,与TOC、NO-3、HCO-3呈负相关关系;未发现氮移除速率与盐度之间的相关关系。因此,在研究的碱湖中,氮移除过程中主要为N2排放,而N2O低于检测水平;氮移除过程的影响因素复杂且不限于最主要的环境变量(盐度与pH)。这些结果为研究湖泊N2O排放提供了数据基础。 相似文献