Models of travel demand with endogenous preference change and heterogeneous agents

In the literatures of regional science, urban economics, and urban development planning, a working assumption is that individuals respond to incentives and regulations, given their preferences. Models for planning and policy analyses are used to consider what might occur if the incentives or regulations were different. In these models, however, preferences are usually assumed to be given and stable, and agents are usually assumed to be homogeneous. This paper focuses on the implications of making preferences in models of policy implementation endogenously determined and time varying heterogeneous agents. We consider first the recent literature on intertemporal choice and preference change, which cuts across many disciplines, and more briefly the literature on norm-regarding behavior. We then elaborate a simple model of transportation demand—from a static to a dynamic orientation, from fixed and exogenously given preferences of strictly self-regarding agents to endogenously determined and policy-induced preferences of heterogeneous agents—and illustrate its characteristics with simple numerical examples.     

Heavy metal pollution in sediments of a typical mariculture zone in South China

The heavy metal inventory and the ecological risk of the estuarine sediments in Hailing Bay, an important maricultural zone along the southern coast of China, were investigated. Results show that the surface sediments were mainly polluted by As (2.17-20.34 mg/kg), Ni (1.37-42.50mg/kg), Cu (1.21-58.84 mg/kg) and Zn (11.69-219.22 mg/kg). Furthermore, the aquafarming zone was significantly more polluted than the non-aquafarming zone, and cluster analysis suggested additional sources of heavy metal input in the aquafarming zone. As, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn were mainly present in the non-bioavailable residual form in the surface sediments, whereas Cd was predominantly in the highly mobile acid soluble and reducible fractions. The ecological risk of the polluted sediments stemmed mainly from Cd, and from As, Cu and Pb to less degrees. The highest potential risks occurred near the aquaculture base, indicating the need to control heavy metal inputs from aquafarming activities.     

Application of saddlepoint approximation in reliability analysis of dynamic systems

The application of the saddlepoint approximation to reliability analysis of dynamic systems is investigated. The failure event in reliability problems is formulated as the exceedance of a single performance variable over a prescribed threshold level. The saddlepoint approximation technique provides a choice to estimate the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the performance variable. The failure probability is obtained as the value of the complement CDF at a specif ied threshold. The method requires computing the saddlepoint from a simple algebraic equation that depends on the cumulant generating function (CGF) of the performance variable. A method for calculating the saddlepoint using random samples of the performance variable is presented. The applicable region of the saddlepoint approximation is discussed in detail. A 10-story shear building model with white noise excitation illustrates the accuracy and effi ciency of the proposed methodology.     

Lateral continuity of basement seismic reflections in 15 Ma ultrafast-spreading crust at ODP Site 1256

The Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) initiated drilling at Site 1256D in the Guatemala Basin, about 1,000 km off the East Pacific Rise to penetrate plutonic rocks, anticipated to be relatively shallow in this region, formed at an ultra-fast spreading rate. IODP Expedition E312 successfully drilled into gabbros at ~1,150 m in basement. Multi-channel seismic traces show weak laterally coherent sub-basement reflections at borehole depths. Synthetic reflectivity seismograms were computed using a Ricker wavelet and impedance profiles from borehole sonic logs. These seismograms show significant sub-basement amplitude peaks. A zero-offset vertical seismic profile, shot on E312, was processed to investigate the authenticity of these reflections and their relationship to borehole geology. A dual scheme of the median filtering and F–K dip filtering was used. Tests with synthetic seismograms indicate the approach is effective at reasonable SNR levels. Downgoing energy is clearly identified but negligible upgoing energy is visible over random noise. These results indicate that lava flows and igneous contacts in upper ocean crust have significant topography on lateral scales less than the Fresnel Zone (~300 m) due to igneous and tectonic processes.     

An Analytical Model For Threshold Crossing Rates Of Concentration Fluctuations In Dispersing Plumes

A simple analytical model is developed for the meanupcrossing rate of plume concentration fluctuations assuming that thisprocess can be well approximated by a lognormal process. The resultingexpression requires only the specification of the in-plume fluctuationintensity and in-plume Taylor micro-time scale and, hence, does notexplicitly involve the joint probability density function of theconcentration and its derivative. The analytical model provides agood fit to some field measurements of the mean upcrossing rate ina dispersing plume.     

An inter-comparison of tidal solutions computed with a range of unstructured grid models of the Irish and Celtic Sea Regions

Three finite element codes, namely TELEMAC, ADCIRC and QUODDY, are used to compute the spatial distributions of the M₂, M₄ and M₆ components of the tide in the sea region off the west coast of Britain. This region is chosen because there is an accurate topographic dataset in the area and detailed open boundary M₂ tidal forcing for driving the model. In addition, accurate solutions (based upon comparisons with extensive observations) using uniform grid finite difference models forced with these open boundary data exist for comparison purposes. By using boundary forcing, bottom topography and bottom drag coefficients identical to those used in an earlier finite difference model, there is no danger of comparing finite element solutions for “untuned unoptimised solutions” with those from a “tuned optimised solution”. In addition, by placing the open boundary in all finite element calculations at the same location as that used in a previous finite difference model and using the same M₂ tidal boundary forcing and water depths, a like with like comparison of solutions derived with the various finite element models was possible. In addition, this open boundary was well removed from the shallow water region, namely the eastern Irish Sea where the higher harmonics were generated. Since these are not included in the open boundary, forcing their generation was determined by physical processes within the models. Consequently, an inter-comparison of these higher harmonics generated by the various finite element codes gives some indication of the degree of variability in the solution particularly in coastal regions from one finite element model to another. Initial calculations using high-resolution near-shore topography in the eastern Irish Sea and including “wetting and drying” showed that M₂ tidal amplitudes and phases in the region computed with TELEMAC were in good agreement with observations. The ADCIRC code gave amplitudes about 30 cm lower and phases about 8° higher. For the M₄ tide, in the eastern Irish Sea amplitudes computed with TELEMAC were about 4 cm higher than ADCIRC on average, with phase differences of order 5°. For the M₆ component, amplitudes and phases showed significant small-scale variability in the eastern Irish Sea, and no clear bias between the models could be found. Although setting a minimum water depth of 5 m in the near-shore region, hence removing wetting and drying, reduced the small-scale variability in the models, the differences in M₂ and M₄ tide between models remained. For M₆, a significant reduction in variability occurred in the eastern Irish Sea when a minimum 5-m water depth was specified. In this case, TELEMAC gave amplitudes that were 1 cm higher and phases 30° lower than ADCIRC on average. For QUODDY in the eastern Irish Sea, average M₂ tidal amplitudes were about 10 cm higher and phase 8° higher than those computed with TELEMAC. For M₄, amplitudes were approximately 2 cm higher with phases of order 15° higher in the northern part of the region and 15° lower in the southern part. For M₆ in the north of the region, amplitudes were 2 cm higher and about 2 cm lower in the south. Very rapid M₆ tidal-phase changes occurred in the near-shore regions. The lessons learned from this model inter-comparison study are summarised in the final section of the paper. In addition, the problems of performing a detailed model–model inter-comparison are discussed, as are the enormous difficulties of conducting a true model skill assessment that would require detailed measurements of tidal boundary forcing, near-shore topography and precise knowledge of bed types and bed forms. Such data are at present not available.     

Tectonics of southwestern Mexico,isotopic evidence,nuclear Central America,Late Cretaceous break up

In the paleogeographic reconstruction of Mexico and northern Central America, an ever-increasing amount of evidence shows that the entire region is a collage of suspect terranes transported from abroad, whose timing and sense of motion are now beginning to be understood. Among these, the Chortis block (nuclear Central America) and the Baja California Peninsula have been proposed as pieces of continent separated from the Pacific coast of southwestern Mexico, that have moved either southeastward by the Farallon plate or northwestward by the Kula plate. Previous studies mainly confined to the northern margin of the Chortis block, confirmed a left-lateral displacement of 130 km in Neogene time. Further studies made northwestward along the Mexican coast provided a better understanding of magmatic and metamorphic processes in the area, and suggested times of detachment increased to 30 Ma, 40 Ma, and 66 Ma. The pre-detachment westernmost position of the block has changed, depending on the model chosen, from Puerto Vallarta and beyond, to the current position. Here we show that the isotopic mineral ages from coastal granites along the coast from Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco (80 Ma) to Puerto Angel, Oaxaca (11 Ma) record systematic decrease of cooling ages from NW to SE. This pattern is interpreted to result from the progressive uplift of rocks exposed at the present-day coast in that direction, such uplift occurred in response to the development of the Middle America Trench at the newly formed continental margin when the Chortis block was sliding at an average rate of 1.5 cm/year in a sinistral sense to its present position. Our results also constrain the position of the Kula-Farallon spreading axis north of Puerto Vallarta. These observations led us to conclude that several indicators point to this time and region for the onset of strike-slip drifting of the Chortis block toward its current position. Here, we also present several view points in terms of other possilble interpretations to different tectonic, geologic and isotopic data sets published recently by different authors.     

现代浮游有孔虫对南海西南部上升流的响应

现代夏季风系统导致了南海西南部（越南岸外）上升流的发育,但浮游有孔虫对夏季上升流的响应如何尚缺乏实测资料,这不利于准确地利用有孔虫来重建古上升流的活动进而反演过去夏季风的强度变化。本研究利用2014年4月14日至11月1日布放于南海西南部夏季上升流区的时间序列沉积物捕获器材料,详细鉴定并定量统计了其所含浮游有孔虫类型。通过分析样品中浮游有孔虫各属种的通量和百分含量变化,结合区域气候环境资料,探讨南海西南部夏季上升流区浮游有孔虫对夏季风的响应,为古上升流与夏季风研究提供现代依据。研究结果表明初级生产力是控制上升流区浮游有孔虫通量变化的首要因素,喜营养种在上升流发育期增多而寡营养种含量下降。因此高表层生产力指示种,如Neogloboquadrina dutertrei可能是追溯南海西南部夏季上升流变化最可靠的指标。

     

Integration of reflection seismic and sediment grain-size data from Lake Khubsugul (Northern Mongolia): a reply to Prokopenko and Kendall

Prokopenko and Kendall (J Paleolimnol doi:, 2008) criticise the work presented in Fedotov et al. (J Paleolimnol 39:335–348, 2008), and instead propose an alternative interpretation for the grain-size evolution recorded in the KDP-01 core, retrieved from the central part of Lake Khubsugul. Their interpretation is based (i) on a seismic-stratigraphic re-interpretation of sparker seismic profile khub012 (which they copied from Fedotov et al. (EOS Trans 87:246–250, 2006)), (ii) on the presupposition that changes in lake level are the dominant control on facies distribution in Lake Khubsugul, and (iii) on the invalidation of our age-depth model. In this reply to their comment, we demonstrate that they interpreted seismic artefacts and geometries caused by changes in profile orientation as true stratigraphic features and that the lake-level reconstruction they derive from this interpretation is therefore incorrect. We also demonstrate that their grain-size predictions, which they consider to be predominantly driven by changes in lake level, are inconsistent with the measured sulphate concentration, which is a demonstrated proxy of lake level in Lake Khubsugul, and with the measured grain-size record. Finally, we point out that even if there would be a problem with the age-depth model, this problem would not affect the part of the sedimentary sequence discussed in Fedotov et al. (J Paleolimnol 39:335–348, 2008).     

The first extra-large helium-rich gas field identified in a tight sandstone of the Dongsheng Gas Field,Ordos Basin,China

Science China Earth Sciences - Helium gas is a scarce but important strategic resource, which is usually associated with natural gas. Presently, only one extra-large helium-rich gas field has been...