Analysis of climate policy targets under uncertainty

Although policymaking in response to the climate change threat is essentially a challenge of risk management, most studies of the relation of emissions targets to desired climate outcomes are either deterministic or subject to a limited representation of the underlying uncertainties. Monte Carlo simulation, applied to the MIT Integrated Global System Model (an integrated economic and earth system model of intermediate complexity), is used to analyze the uncertain outcomes that flow from a set of century-scale emissions paths developed originally for a study by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program. The resulting uncertainty in temperature change and other impacts under these targets is used to illustrate three insights not obtainable from deterministic analyses: that the reduction of extreme temperature changes under emissions constraints is greater than the reduction in the median reduction; that the incremental gain from tighter constraints is not linear and depends on the target to be avoided; and that comparing median results across models can greatly understate the uncertainty in any single model.     

Competitiveness of terrestrial greenhouse gas offsets: are they a bridge to the future?

Activities to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by biological soil or forest carbon sequestration predominantly utilize currently known, readily implementable technologies. Many other greenhouse gas emission reduction options require future technological development or must wait for turnover of capital stock. Carbon sequestration options in soils and forests, while ready to go now, generally have a finite life, allowing use until other strategies are developed. This paper reports on an investigation of the competitiveness of biological carbon sequestration from a dynamic and multiple strategy viewpoint. Key factors affecting the competitiveness of terrestrial mitigation options are land availability and cost effectiveness relative to other options including CO₂ capture and storage, energy efficiency improvements, fuel switching, and non-CO₂ greenhouse gas emission reductions. The analysis results show that, at lower CO₂ prices and in the near term, soil carbon and other agricultural/forestry options can be important bridges to the future, initially providing a substantial portion of attainable reductions in net greenhouse gas emissions, but with a limited role in later years. At higher CO₂ prices, afforestation and biofuels are more dominant among terrestrial options to offset greenhouse gas emissions. But in the longer run, allowing for capital stock turnover, options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the energy system and biofuels provide an increasing share of potential reductions in total US greenhouse gas emissions.     

比较行星地质学的研究方法、现状和展望

比较行星地质学是人类认识自然和人类本身形成与演化的前缘学科,是实现太阳系探测三大科学目标的主要手段.比较行星地质学研究主要回答3个问题:行星的现状是什么样的?行星的过去是什么样的?行星的过去、现在与太阳系其他行星的可比性如何?行星地质学的研究内容与研究地球地质相似,即撞击作用、火山(岩浆)作用、构造作用和夷平作用等,这些是塑造行星地貌最主要的地质作用,其中撞击构造是其他行星更为常见的地质作用.行星地质学的研究方法是利用遥感获得的各种影像、光波和电磁波等数据,以及在行星表面直接勘察获得的数据和取回的样品,对行星表面和地表以下的成分、结构和形成与演化过程进行研究.我国积极参与深空探测将获得第一手行星地质数据,国际深空探测计划的持续实施和数据的广泛共享为中国科学家积极参与行星地质学和比较行星学的研究提供了广阔空间,同时也为研究和认识地球提供新的和更全面的视野.     

Overprinting porphyry‐type veinlets on the intrusive rocks and phreatomagmatic breccias in the Southwest prospect,southwestern Sto. Tomas II (Philex), Baguio District,Philippines

The Southwest prospect is located at the southwestern periphery of the Sto. Tomas II porphyry copper–gold deposit in the Baguio District, northwestern Luzon, Philippines. The Southwest prospect hosts a copper‐gold mineralization related to a complex of porphyry intrusions, breccia facies, and overlapping porphyry‐type veinlets emplaced within the basement Pugo metavolcanics rocks and conglomerates of the Zigzag Formation. The occurrences of porphyry‐type veinlets and potassic alteration hosted in the complex are thought to be indications of the presence of blind porphyry deposits within the Sto. Tomas II vicinity. The complex is composed of at least four broadly mineralogically similar dioritic intrusive rocks that vary in texture and alteration type and intensity. These intrusions were accompanied with at least five breccia facies that were formed by the explosive brecciation, induced by the magmatic–hydrothermal processes and phreatomagmatic activities during the emplacement of the various intrusions. Hydrothermal alteration assemblages consisting of potassic, chlorite–magnetite, propylitic and sericite–chlorite alteration, and contemporaneous veinlet types were developed on the host rocks. Elevated copper and gold grades correspond to (a) chalcopyrite–bornite assemblage in the potassic alteration in the syn‐mineralization early‐mineralization diorite (EMD) and contemporaneous veinlets and (b) chalcopyrite‐rich mineralization associated with the chalcopyrite–magnetite–chlorite–actinolite±sericite veinlets contemporaneous with the chlorite–magnetite alteration. Erratic remarkable concentrations of gold were also present in the late‐mineralization Late Diorite (LD). High X_Mg of calcic amphiboles (>0.60) in the intrusive rocks indicate that the magmas have been oxidizing since the early stages of crystallization, while a gap in the composition of Al between the rim and the cores of the calcic amphiboles in the EMD and LD indicate decompression at some point during the crystallization of these intrusive rocks. Fluid inclusion microthermometry suggests the trapping of immiscible fluids that formed the potassic alteration, associated ore mineralization, and sheeted quartz veinlets. The corresponding formation conditions of the shallower and deeper quartz veinlets were estimated at pressures of 50 and 30 MPa and temperatures of 554 and 436°C at depths of 1.9 and 1.1 km. Temperature data from the chlorite indicate that the chalcopyrite‐rich mineralization associated with the chlorite–magnetite alteration was formed at a much lower temperature (ca. 290°C) than the potassic alteration. Evidence from the vein offsetting matrix suggests multiple intrusions within the EMD, despite the K‐Ar ages of the potassic alteration in EMD and hornblende in the LD of about the same age at 3.5 ± 0.3 Ma. The K‐Ar age of the potassic alteration was likely to be thermally reset as a result of the overprinting hydrothermal alteration. The constrained K‐Ar ages also indicate earlier formed intrusive rocks in the Southwest prospect, possibly coeval to the earliest “dark diorite” intrusion in the Sto. Tomas II deposit. In addition, the range of δ³⁴S of sulfide minerals from +1.8‰ to +5.1‰ in the Southwest prospect closely overlaps with the rest of the porphyry copper and epithermal deposits in the Sto. Tomas II deposit and its vicinity. This indicates that the sulfides may have formed from a homogeneous source of the porphyry copper deposits and epithermal deposits in the Sto. Tomas II orebody and its vicinity. The evidence presented in this work proves that the porphyry copper‐type veinlets and the adjacent potassic alteration in the Southwest prospect are formed earlier and at a shallower level in contrast with the other porphyry deposits in the Baguio District.     

The role of tidal,wave and river currents in the evolution of mixed‐energy deltas: Example from the Lajas Formation (Argentina)

Many modern deltas show complex morphologies and architectures related to the interplay of river, wave and tidal currents. However, methods for extracting the signature of the individual processes from the stratigraphic architecture are poorly developed. Through an analysis of facies, palaeocurrents and stratigraphic stacking patterns in the Jurassic Lajas Formation, this paper: (i) separates the signals of wave, tide and river currents; (ii) illustrates the result of strong tidal reworking in the distal reaches of deltaic systems; and (iii) discusses the implications of this reworking for the evolution of mixed‐energy systems and their reservoir heterogeneities. The Lajas Formation, a sand‐rich, shallow‐marine, mixed‐energy deltaic system in the Neuquén Basin of Argentina, previously defined as a tide‐dominated system, presents an exceptional example of process variability at different scales. Tidal signals are predominantly located in the delta front, the subaqueous platform and the distributary channel deposits. Tidal currents vigorously reworked the delta front during transgressions, producing intensely cross‐stratified, sheet‐like, sandstone units. In the subaqueous platform, described for the first time in an ancient outcrop example, the tidal reworking was confined within subtidal channels. The intensive tidal reworking in the distal reaches of the regressive delta front could not have been predicted from knowledge of the coeval proximal reaches of the regressive delta front. The wave signals occur mainly in the shelf or shoreface deposits. The fluvial signals increase in abundance proximally but are always mixed with the other processes. The Lajas system is an unusual clean‐water (i.e. very little mud is present in the system), sand‐rich deltaic system, very different from the majority of mud‐rich, modern tide‐influenced examples. The sand‐rich character is a combination of source proximity, syndepositional tectonic activity and strong tidal‐current reworking, which produced amalgamated sandstone bodies in the delta‐front area, and a final stratigraphic record very different from the simple coarsening‐upward trends of river‐dominated and wave‐dominated delta fronts.