The effect of tides and storms on the sediment transport across a Dutch barrier island

Under natural conditions, barrier islands might grow vertically and migrate onshore under the influence of long‐term sea level rise. Sediment is transported onshore during storm‐induced overwash and inundation. However, on many Dutch Wadden Islands, dune openings are closed off by artificial sand‐drift dikes that prevent the influx of sediment during storms. It has been argued that creating openings in the dune row to allow regular flooding on barrier islands can have a positive effect on the sediment budget, but the dominant hydrodynamic processes and their influence on sediment transport during overwash and inundation are unknown. Here, we present an XBeach model study to investigate how sediment transport during overwash and inundation across the beach of a typical mesotidal Wadden Sea barrier island is influenced by wave, tide and storm surge conditions. Firstly, we validated the model XBeach with field data on waves and currents during island inundation. In general, the XBeach model performed well. Secondly, we studied the long‐term sediment transport across the barrier island. We distinguished six representative inundation classes, ranging from frequently occurring, low‐energy events to infrequent, high‐energy events, and simulated the hydrodynamics and sediment transport during these events. An analysis of the model simulations shows that larger storm events cause larger cross‐shore sediment transport, but the net sediment exchange during a storm levels off or even becomes smaller for the largest inundation classes because it is counteracted by larger mean water levels in the Wadden Sea that oppose or even reverse sediment transport during inundation. When taking into account the frequency of occurrence of storms we conclude that the cumulative effect of relatively mild storms on long‐term cross‐shore sediment transport is much larger than that of the large storm events. © 2017 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Assessing vertical diffusion in a stratified lake using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model

Vertical turbulent diffusivity (K_z), which can be estimated from water temperature, is a key factor in the evolution of water quality in lentic waters. In this study, we analysed the capability of a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model (EFDC) to capture water temperature and vertical diffusivity in Lake Arendsee in the Northern German plain. Of particular interest to us is to evaluate the model performance for capturing the diffusion minimum within the metalimnion and analyse the response of the metalimnetic K_z to meteorological forcing, namely changing wind speed and warming. The comparison confirmed that the calibrated model could reproduce both stratification dynamics and vertical diffusion profiles in the lake. The model was also shown to be able to capture the duration and vertical extent of the metalimnetic diffusion minimum. The scenario results illustrate that, compared to air temperature, wind velocity appeared to be the more influential meteorological variable on the vertical exchange within the metalimnion. While increasing wind velocities mostly affected the minimum values of K_z in the metalimnion and thus led to intensified vertical exchange, the reduction of wind velocity mostly affected the depth of minimal K_z, but not its absolute value.     

Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change

Approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon (C) are stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost zone, more than twice as much C than in the atmosphere. The overall amount, rate, and form of C released to the atmosphere in a warmer world will influence the strength of the permafrost C feedback to climate change. We used a survey to quantify variability in the perception of the vulnerability of permafrost C to climate change. Experts were asked to provide quantitative estimates of permafrost change in response to four scenarios of warming. For the highest warming scenario (RCP 8.5), experts hypothesized that C release from permafrost zone soils could be 19–45 Pg C by 2040, 162–288 Pg C by 2100, and 381–616 Pg C by 2300 in CO₂ equivalent using 100-year CH₄ global warming potential (GWP). These values become 50 % larger using 20-year CH₄ GWP, with a third to a half of expected climate forcing coming from CH₄ even though CH₄ was only 2.3 % of the expected C release. Experts projected that two-thirds of this release could be avoided under the lowest warming scenario (RCP 2.6). These results highlight the potential risk from permafrost thaw and serve to frame a hypothesis about the magnitude of this feedback to climate change. However, the level of emissions proposed here are unlikely to overshadow the impact of fossil fuel burning, which will continue to be the main source of C emissions and climate forcing.     

The relation between stellar mass and weak lensing signal around galaxies: implications for modified Newtonian dynamics

We study the amplitude of the weak gravitational lensing signal as a function of stellar mass around a sample of relatively isolated galaxies. This selection of lenses simplifies the interpretation of the observations, which consist of data from the Red-Sequence Cluster Survey and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. We find that the amplitude of the lensing signal as a function of stellar mass is well described by a power law with a best-fitting slope  α= 0.74 ± 0.08  . This result is inconsistent with modified Newtonian dynamics (MOND), which predicts  α= 0.5  (we find  α > 0.5  with 99.7 per cent confidence). As a related test, we determine the MOND mass-to-light ratio as a function of luminosity. Our results require dark matter for the most luminous galaxies ( L ≳ 10¹¹ L_⊙). We rule out an extended halo of gas or active neutrinos as a way of reconciling our findings with MOND. Although we focus on a single alternative gravity model, we note that our results provide an important test for any alternative theory of gravity.     

Hydrological response to future land-use change and climate change in a tropical catchment

Hydrological response to expected future changes in land use and climate in the Samin catchment (278 km²) in Java, Indonesia, was simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model. We analysed changes between the baseline period 1983–2005 and the future period 2030–2050 under both land-use change and climate change. We used the outputs of a bias-corrected regional climate model and six global climate models to include climate model uncertainty. The results show that land-use change and climate change individually will cause changes in the water balance components, but that more pronounced changes are expected if the drivers are combined, in particular for changes in annual streamflow and surface runoff. The findings of this study will be useful for water resource managers to mitigate future risks associated with land-use and climate changes in the study catchment.     

An evaluation of Arctic cloud and radiation processes during the SHEBA year: simulation results from eight Arctic regional climate models

Eight atmospheric regional climate models (RCMs) were run for the period September 1997 to October 1998 over the western Arctic Ocean. This period was coincident with the observational campaign of the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) project. The RCMs shared common domains, centred on the SHEBA observation camp, along with a common model horizontal resolution, but differed in their vertical structure and physical parameterizations. All RCMs used the same lateral and surface boundary conditions. Surface downwelling solar and terrestrial radiation, surface albedo, vertically integrated water vapour, liquid water path and cloud cover from each model are evaluated against the SHEBA observation data. Downwelling surface radiation, vertically integrated water vapour and liquid water path are reasonably well simulated at monthly and daily timescales in the model ensemble mean, but with considerable differences among individual models. Simulated surface albedos are relatively accurate in the winter season, but become increasingly inaccurate and variable in the melt season, thereby compromising the net surface radiation budget. Simulated cloud cover is more or less uncorrelated with observed values at the daily timescale. Even for monthly averages, many models do not reproduce the annual cycle correctly. The inter-model spread of simulated cloud-cover is very large, with no model appearing systematically superior. Analysis of the co-variability of terms controlling the surface radiation budget reveal some of the key processes requiring improved treatment in Arctic RCMs. Improvements in the parameterization of cloud amounts and surface albedo are most urgently needed to improve the overall performance of RCMs in the Arctic.     

High resolution climate simulations over the Arctic

The regional atmospheric climate model HIRHAM has been applied to the Arctic. Simulations for the whole year 1990 and for an ensemble of winter months (January of 1985-1995) have been performed. The comparison of the simulations with observational data analyses shows that the general spatial patterns are in good agreement with the data, in both the vertical structure and the annual cycle. For an additional validation of the model results, a multivariate classification of large-scale circulation patterns has been applied to the January ensemble model simulations.     

Spatial Planning on the Semantic Web

Land use regulations are an important but often underrated legal domain. In densely populated regions such as the Netherlands, spatial plans have a profound impact on both (local) governments and citizens. This article describes our work on a ‘Legal Atlas’. Using Semantic Web technology we combine distributed geospatial data, textual data and controlled vocabularies to support users in answering questions such as: “What activity is allowed here?” Spatial norms are represented using OWL 2 in a way that enables intuitive visualisation of their effects: map‐based legal case assessment. Users can represent a (simple) case by selecting or drawing an area on the map. Given a designation for that area, the system can assess whether this is allowed or not. The same solution also enables the comparison of two or more sets of spatial norms that govern the same region. We discuss the advantages and drawbacks of a number of alternative solutions for representing and integrating metadata of spatial plans, and the representation of normative conflicts and exceptions between norms.     

Reservoirs as sentinels of catchments: the Rappbode Reservoir Observatory (Harz Mountains, Germany)

Reservoirs can be viewed as sentinels of their catchments and a detailed monitoring of reservoir systems informs about biogeochemical and hydrological processes at the catchment scale. We developed a comprehensive online monitoring system at Rappbode reservoir, the largest drinking water reservoir in Germany, and its inflows. The Rappbode Reservoir Observatory comprises of a set of online-sensors for the measurement of physical, chemical, and biological variables and is complemented by a biweekly limnological sampling schedule. Measurement stations are deployed at the four major inflows into the system, at the outlets of all pre-reservoirs, as well as in the main reservoir. The newly installed monitoring system serves both scientific monitoring and process studies, as well as reservoir management. Particular emphasis is paid to the monitoring of short-term dynamics and many variables are measured at high temporal resolution. As an example, we quantitatively documented a flood event which mobilised high loads of dissolved organic carbon and changed the characteristics of the receiving reservoir from eutrophic to dystrophic within a few days. This event could have been completely missed by conventional biweekly sampling programs, but is relevant for biogeochemical fluxes at the catchment scale. We also show that the high frequency data provide a deeper insight into ecosystem dynamics and lake metabolism. The Rappbode Reservoir Observatory; moreover, offers a unique study site to apply, validate, and develop state of the art lake models to improve their predictive capabilities.