Attribution of changes in the water balance of a tropical catchment to land use change using the SWAT model

Changes in the water balance of the Samin catchment (277.9 km²) on Java, Indonesia, can be attributed to land use change using the Soil Water Assessment Tool model. A baseline‐altered method was used in which the simulation period 1990–2013 was divided into 4 equal periods to represent baseline conditions (1990–1995) and altered land use conditions (1996–2001, 2002–2007, and 2008–2013). Land use maps for 1994, 2000, 2006, and 2013 were acquired from satellite images. A Soil Water Assessment Tool model was calibrated for the baseline period and applied to the altered periods with and without land use change. Incorporating land use change resulted in a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.7 compared to 0.6 when land use change is ignored. In addition, the model performance for simulations without land use change gradually decreased with time. Land use change appeared to be the important driver for changes in the water balance. The main land use changes during 1994–2013 are a decrease in forest area from 48.7% to 16.9%, an increase in agriculture area from 39.2% to 45.4%, and an increase in settlement area from 9.8% to 34.3%. For the catchment, this resulted in an increase of the runoff coefficient from 35.7% to 44.6% and a decrease in the ratio of evapotranspiration to rainfall from 60% to 54.8%. More pronounced changes can be observed for the ratio of surface runoff to stream flow (increase from 26.6% to 37.5%) and the ratio of base flow to stream flow (decrease from 40% to 31.1%), whereas changes in the ratio of lateral flow to stream flow were minor (decrease from 33.4% to 31.4%). At sub‐catchment level, the effect of land use changes on the water balance varied in different sub‐catchments depending on the scale of changes in forest and settlement area.     

Evolution of a bifurcation in a meandering river with adjustable channel widths,Rhine delta apex,The Netherlands

Rivers may dramatically change course on a fluvial plain. Such an avulsion temporarily leads to two active channels connected at a bifurcation. Here we study the effect of dynamic meandering at the bifurcation and the effect of channel width adjustment to changing discharge in both downstream branches on the evolution of a bifurcation and coexisting channels. As an example, we reconstructed the last major avulsion at the Rhine delta apex. We combined historical and geological data to reconstruct a slowly developing avulsion process spanning 2000 years and involving channel width adjustment and meandering at the bifurcation. Based on earlier idealised models, we developed a one‐dimensional model for long‐term morphodynamic prediction of upstream channel and bifurcates connected at the bifurcation node. The model predicts flow and sediment partitioning at the node, including the effect of migrating meanders at the bifurcation and channel width adjustment. Bifurcate channel width adaptation to changing discharge partitioning dramatically slows the pacing of bifurcation evolution because the sediment balance for width adjustment and bed evolution are coupled. The model further shows that meandering at the bifurcation modulates channel abandonment or enlargement periodically. This explains hitherto unrecognised reactivation signals in the sedimentary record of the studied bifurcation meander belts, newly identified in our geological reconstruction. Historical maps show that bifurcation migration due to meander bend dynamics increases the bifurcation angle, which increases the rate of closure of one bifurcate. The combination of model and reconstruction identifies the relevant timescales for bifurcation evolution and avulsion duration. These are the time required to fill one downstream channel over one backwater length, the time to translate one meander wavelength downstream and, for strong river banks, the adaptation timescale to adjust channel width. The findings have relevance for all avulsions where channel width can adjust to changing discharge and where meandering occurs. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Arctic sea ice and atmospheric circulation under the abrupt4xCO2 scenario

We analyze sea ice changes from eight different earth system models that have conducted experiment abrupt4xCO2 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5). In response to abrupt quadrupling of CO2 from preindustrial levels, Arctic temperatures dramatically rise by about 10°C—16°C in winter and the seasonal sea ice cycle and sea ice concentration are significantly changed compared with the pre-industrial control simulations(pi Control). Changes of Arctic sea ice concentration are spatially correlated with temperature patterns in all seasons and highest in autumn. Changes in sea ice are associated with changes in atmospheric circulation patterns at heights up to the jet stream. While the pattern of sea level pressure changes is generally similar to the surface air temperature change pattern, the wintertime 500 h Pa circulation displays a positive Pacific North America(PNA) anomaly under abrupt4xCO2-pi Control. This large scale teleconnection may contribute to, or feedback on, the simulated sea ice cover change and is associated with an intensification of the jet stream over East Asia and the north Pacific in winter.     

Cometary charge exchange diagnostics in UV and X‐ray

Since the initial discovery of cometary charge exchange emission, more than 20 comets have been observed with a variety of X‐ray and UV observatories. This observational sample offers a broad variety of comets, solar wind environments and observational conditions. It clearly demonstrates that solar wind charge exchange emission provides a wealth of diagnostics, which are visible as spatial, temporal, and spectral emission features. We review the possibilities and limitations of each of those in this contribution (© 2012 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Structure and seasonal changes in atmospheric boundary layer on coast of the east Antarctic continent

The temperature, humidity, and vertical distribution of ozone in the Antarctic atmospheric boundary layer（ABL） and their seasonal changes are analyzed, by using the high-resolution profile data obtained during the International Polar Year 2008 to 2009 at Zhongshan Station, to further the understanding of the structure and processes of the ABL. The results show that the fre- quency of the convective boundary layer in the warm season accounts for 84% of its annual occurrence frequency. The frequency of the stable boundary layer in the cold season accounts for 71% of its annual occurrence frequency. A neutral boundary layer ap- pears rarely. The average altitude of the convective boundary layer determined by the parcel method is 600 m; this is 200 to 300 m higher than that over inland Antarctica. The average altitude of the top of the boundary layer determined by the potential tempera- ture gradient and humidity gradient is 1 200 m in the warm season and 1 500 m in the cold season. The vertical structures of ozone and specific humidity in the ABL exhibit obvious seasonal changes. The specific humidity is very high with greater vertical gradi- ent in the warm season and very low with a lesser gradient in the cold season under 2 000 m. The atmospheric ozone in the ABL is consumed by photochemical processes in the warm season, which results in a slight difference in altitude. The sub-highest ozone center is located in the boundary layer, indicating that the ozone transferred from the stratosphere to the troposphere reaches the low boundary layer during October and November in Antarctica.     

Influence of the back-barrier basin length on the geometry of ebb-tidal deltas

The characteristics of ebb-tidal deltas are determined by the local hydrodynamics. The latter depend, among others, on the geometry of the adjacent back-barrier basin. Therefore, interventions in the back-barrier basin can affect the geometry of ebb-tidal deltas. In this study, the effect of the length of the back-barrier basin on the sand volume and spatial symmetry of ebb-tidal deltas is quantified with the use of a numerical model. It is found that the length of the back-barrier basin affects the tidal prism, the amplitude and phase of the primary tide and its overtides, and the residual currents that, together, determine the sand volume of the ebb-tidal delta. In particular, it is found that no unique relationship exists between tidal prism and sand volume of an ebb-tidal delta. The spatial symmetry of ebb-tidal deltas is also found to be affected by the length of the back-barrier basin. This is because the basin length determines the phase difference between alongshore and cross-shore tidal currents. The numerical model results give a possible explanation for the changes that are observed in the geometry of the ebb-tidal deltas that are located seaward of the Texel Inlet and Vlie Inlet after the closure of the Zuiderzee.     

Simulation and evaluation of 2-m temperature over Antarctica in polar regional climate model

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis ERA40,National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) 20th-century reanalysis,and three station observations along an Antarctic traverse from Zhongshan to Dome-A stations are used to assess 2-m temperature simulation skill of a regional climate model.This model(HIRHAM) is from the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in Germany.Results show:(1) The simulated multiyear averaged 2-m temperature field pattern is close to that of ERA40 and NCEP;(2) the cold bias relative to ERA40 over all of Antarctic regions is 1.8℃,and that to NCEP reaches 5.1℃;(3) bias of HIRHAM relative to ERA40 has seasonal variation,with a cold bias mainly in the summer,as much as 3.4℃.There is a small inland warm bias in autumn of 0.3℃.Further analysis reveals that the reason for the cold bias of 2-m temperature is that physical conditions of the near-surface boundary layer simulated by HIRHAM are different from observations:(1) During the summer,observations show that near-surface atmospheric stability conditions have both inversions and non-inversions,which is due to the existence of both positive and negative sensible heat fluxes,but HIRHAM almost always simulates a situation of inversion and negative sensible heat flux;(2) during autumn and winter,observed near-surface stability is almost always that of inversions,consistent with HIRHAM simulations.This partially explains the small bias during autumn and winter.     

Sensitivity of high-resolution Arctic regional climate model projections to different implementations of land surface processes

This paper discusses the effects of vegetation cover and soil parameters on the climate change projections of a regional climate model over the Arctic domain. Different setups of the land surface model of the regional climate model HIRHAM were realized to analyze differences in the atmospheric circulation caused by (1) the incorporation of freezing/thawing of soil moisture, (2) the consideration of top organic soil horizons typical for the Arctic and (3) a vegetation shift due to a changing climate. The largest direct thermal effect in 2 m air temperature was found for the vegetation shift, which ranged between −1.5 K and 3 K. The inclusion of a freeze/thaw scheme for soil moisture shows equally large sensitivities in spring over cool areas with high soil moisture content. Although the sensitivity signal in 2 m air temperature for the experiments differs in amplitude, all experiments show changes in mean sea level pressure (mslp) and geopotential height (z) throughout the troposphere of similar magnitude (mslp: −2 hPa to 1.5 hPa, z: −15 gpm to 5 gpm). This points to the importance of dynamical feedbacks within the atmosphere-land system. Land and soil processes have a distinct remote influence on large scale atmospheric circulation patterns in addition to their direct, regional effects. The assessment of induced uncertainties due to the changed implementations of land surface processes discussed in this study demonstrates the need to take all those processes for future Arctic climate projections into account, and demonstrates a clear need to include similar implementations in regional and global climate models.