A GIS-based multi-criteria analysis model for earthquake vulnerability assessment using Choquet integral and game theory

Developing an accurate model for discharge estimation techniques of the ungauged river basin is a crucial challenge in water resource management especially in under-development regions. This article is a thorough review of the historical improvement stages of this topic to understand previous challenges that faced researchers, the shortfalls of methods and techniques, how researchers prevailed and what deficiencies still require solutions. This revision focuses on data-driven approaches and GIS-based methods that have improved the accuracy of estimation of hydrological variables, considering their advantages and disadvantages. Past studies used artificial intelligence and geo-statistical methods to forecast the runoff at ungauged river basins, and mapping the spatial distribution has been considered in this study. A recommendation for future research on the potential of a hybrid model utilizing both approaches is proposed and described.     

Facies Analysis and Sequence Stratigraphy of the Qal’eh Dokhtar Formation (Middle–Upper Jurassic) in the West of Boshrouyeh, East Central Iran

The study area is located in the east Tabas Block in Central Iran. Facies analysis of the Qal’eh Dokhtar Formation (middle Callovian to late Oxfordian) was carried out on two stratigraphic sections and applied to depositional environment and sequence stratigraphy interpretation. This formation conformably overlies and underlies the marly-silty Baghamshah and the calcareous Esfandiar formations, respectively. Lateral and vertical facies changes documents low- to high energy environments, including tidal-flat, beach to intertidal, lagoon, barrier, and open-marine. According to these facies associations and absence of resedimentation deposits a depositional model of a mixed carbonate–siliciclastic ramp was proposed for the Qal’eh Dokhtar Formation. Seven third-order depositional sequences were identified in each two measured stratigraphic sections. Transgressive systems tracts (TSTs) show deepening upward trends, i.e. shallow water beach to intertidal and lagoonal facies, while highstand systems tracts (HST) show shallowing upward trends in which deep water facies are overlain by shallow water facies. All sequence boundaries (except at the base of the stratigraphic column) are of the no erosional (SB2) types. We conclude eustatic rather than tectonic factors played a dominant role in controlling carbonate depositional environments in the study area.     

New Relationship for Estimation of Wave Overtopping on Vertical Walls

Soft computing tools in the form of combination of multiple nonlinear regression and M5'' model tree were used for estimation of overtopping rate at the vertical coastal structures. For reliable and precise estimation of overtopping rate, the experimental data available in the database CLASH were used. The dimensionless overtopping rate was estimated in terms of conventional dimensionless parameters including the relative crest freeboard R_c/H_s, seabed slope tanθ, deep water wave steepness S_om, surf similarity ξ_om and local relative water depth h_t/H_s. The accuracy of the new model was compared with other existing models and also evaluated with some field measurements. The results indicated that the model presented in this paper is more accurate than other existing models. With statistical parameters, it is shown that the accuracy of predictions in the new model is better than that of other models.     

Development of synthetic soil mixture for experimental shaking table tests on building frames resting on soft soils

In this study, a synthetic soil mixture has been developed and proposed for experimental soil-structure interaction shaking table tests on building frames with shallow foundations resting on soft soil deposits. The proposed mix provides adequate undrained shear strength to mobilise the required shallow foundation bearing capacity underneath the structural model while meeting both criteria of dynamic similarity between the model and the prototype to model soft soils in shaking table tests. To find the most appropriate mixture, different mixes with different proportions of mix components were examined in the soils laboratory. Performing bender element tests, the shear wave velocity of the soil specimens was acquired at different cure ages and the results were examined and compared. Based on the test results, a synthetic clay mixture consisting of kaolinite clay, bentonite, fly ash, lime and water has been proposed for experimental shaking table tests.     

Delineation of groundwater potential zones using remote sensing,GIS, and AHP technique in Tehran–Karaj plain,Iran

Evaluation of groundwater resources in dry areas without enough data is a challenging task in many parts of the world, including Tehran–Karaj plain in Iran, which includes Tehran, the capital city of Iran and Karaj, one of Iran’s biggest cities. Water demand due to increasing agricultural and industrial activities caused many problems in the field of water resources management. In this study, the potential of groundwater resources was evaluated using remote sensing, geographic information system (GIS), and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) for the first time. Digital Elevation Model from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission was used to generate a slope map and drainage density map. Three Landsat-8 satellite images were utilized to provide lineament density and land cover/land use maps. Geological and soil type maps were provided from the Geological Survey and Mineral Explorations of Iran (GSI). Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission data were used to prepare average annual precipitation map. Discharge values from 102 pumping wells in the time period of 2002–2014 were used to evaluate the results. Seven data layers were prepared, and the geodatabase was made in GIS. The layers and their classes were assigned weights using AHP method. Finally, the layers were overlaid based on their weights, and the potential map of groundwater resources was generated. The area was classified into five zones with very high, high, moderate, low, and very low potentials. The zones covered 5.95, 32.90, 22.70, 10.20, and 28.25% of the study area, respectively. The results showed good agreement with the field data obtained from discharge wells.     

Evaluation of water quality trends in the Maroon River Basin,Iran, from 1990 to 2010 by WQI and multivariate analyses

This research aimed to investigate the long-term spatiotemporal changes of surface water quality of the Maroon River by implementing Water Quality Index (WQI) and multivariate statistical analyses such as non-metric multidimensional scaling and cluster analyses, as complementary tools to investigate spatial variations in water quality parameters and also delineate areas in terms of water quality conditions in the period under study. The other purposes of this study were to evaluate the physicochemical properties of the Maroon River water and assess the effects of each water quality parameter on the WQI values. Relationship between quality scale of hydrochemical parameters and the resulting WQI scores was determined employing linear regression analysis. Moreover, the suitability of water quality was evaluated for irrigation purposes using conventional indices, electrical conductivity (EC), sodium adsorption ratio (SAR), and percent sodium (Na%). The monitoring stations were placed in high and very high categories according to the assessment of irrigation water quality with EC. Considering WQI, the upper (S1, S2, and S4) and lower (S3, S5, and S6) monitoring stations of the Maroon River distributed in category C3 (high salinity) and C4–C5 (very high salinity), respectively. The findings of WQI presented an increasing trend from upstream toward downstream in the Maroon River. The findings of the linear regression analysis showed no significant correlation between WQI scores with pH and SO₄ ^2? concentrations even though the relationship is weak. These results suggest that pH and SO₄ ^2? concentrations could be the secondary driving parameters behind the variations in WQI scores. It can be inferred that the Maroon River water is appropriate for irrigation based on Na% and SAR. However, it also exhibits high EC. Therefore, for mitigating the adverse impacts of polluted water authors recommend multidimensional management practices such as transferable discharge permit programs in the study area.     

A comparative assessment between linear and quadratic discriminant analyses (LDA-QDA) with frequency ratio and weights-of-evidence models for forest fire susceptibility mapping in China

Forest fire is known as an important natural hazard in many countries which causes financial damages and human losses; thus, it is necessary to investigate different aspects of this phenomenon. In this study, performance of four models of linear and quadratic discriminant analysis (LDA and QDA), frequency ratio (FR), and weights-of-evidence (WofE) was investigated to model forest fire susceptibility in the Yihuang area, China. For this purpose, firstly, a forest fire locations map was prepared implementing MODIS satellite images and field surveys. Then, it was classified into two groups including training (70%) and validation (30%) by a random algorithm. In addition, 13 forest fire effective factors were prepared and used such as slope degree, slope aspect, altitude, Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), plan curvature, land use, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), annual rainfall, distance from roads and rivers, wind effect, annual temperature, and soil texture. Using the training dataset and effective factors, LDA, QDA, FR, and WofE models were applied and forest fire susceptibility maps were prepared. Finally, area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristics (ROC) was implemented for investigating the performance of the models. The results depicted that WofE had the best performance (AUC = 82.2%), followed by FR (AUC = 80.9%), QDA (AUC = 78.3%), and LDA (AUC = 78%), respectively. The results of this study showed the high contribution of altitude, slope degree, and temperature. On the other hand, it was seen that slope aspect and soil had the lowest importance in forest fire susceptibility mapping. From the AUC results, it can be concluded that FR, WofE, LDA, and QDA had acceptable performance and could be used for forest fire susceptibility mapping at the regional scale.     

Spatio-temporal variation of transition probability of bursting events over the ripples at the bed of open channel

In this study, the turbulent flow structure over the ripples at the bed of open channel was investigated experimentally. An analysis of bursting process was used to recognize the susceptible regions for sediment entrainment and deposition over the ripples. Two artificial ripples were built according to the ripples, formed by nature. Three different configurations of ripples were used by changing the wavelength. According to analysis of bursting event it was found that at the stoss side of ripples, quadrants (II) and (IV) were dominant to the quadrants (I) and (III) and at the lee side of the ripple it was vice versa. Also the transition probabilities of the bursting events were determined. The results showed that stable organizations of each class of the events had highest transition probabilities whereas cross organizations had lowest transition probabilities. Additionally, an effort was made to find the average inclination angle of the bursting events in quadrants (II) and (IV). The results showed that the mean angle of events in quadrants (II) and (IV) increases at the downstream of stoss side to the crest in each experimental test. Also, at the lee side where the sediment particles were deposited, the inclination angles had the highest values.     

Earthquake hazard assessment in the Zagros Orogenic Belt of Iran using a fuzzy rule-based model

Producing accurate seismic hazard map and predicting hazardous areas is necessary for risk mitigation strategies. In this paper, a fuzzy logic inference system is utilized to estimate the earthquake potential and seismic zoning of Zagros Orogenic Belt. In addition to the interpretability, fuzzy predictors can capture both nonlinearity and chaotic behavior of data, where the number of data is limited. In this paper, earthquake pattern in the Zagros has been assessed for the intervals of 10 and 50 years using fuzzy rule-based model. The Molchan statistical procedure has been used to show that our forecasting model is reliable. The earthquake hazard maps for this area reveal some remarkable features that cannot be observed on the conventional maps. Regarding our achievements, some areas in the southern (Bandar Abbas), southwestern (Bandar Kangan) and western (Kermanshah) parts of Iran display high earthquake severity even though they are geographically far apart.     

Modification of the DRASTIC Framework for Mapping Groundwater Vulnerability Zones

The DRASTIC technique is commonly used to assess groundwater vulnerability. The main disadvantage of the DRASTIC method is the difficulty associated with identifying appropriate ratings and weight assignments for each parameter. To mitigate this issue, ratings and weights can be approximated using different methods appropriate to the conditions of the study area. In this study, different linear (i.e., Wilcoxon test and statistical approaches) and nonlinear (Genetic algorithm [GA]) modifications for calibration of the DRASTIC framework using nitrate (NO₃) concentrations were compared through the preparation of groundwater vulnerability maps of the Meshqin-Shahr plain, Iran. Twenty-two groundwater samples were collected from wells in the study area, and their respective NO₃ concentrations were used to modify the ratings and weights of the DRASTIC parameters. The areas found to have the highest vulnerability were in the eastern, central, and western regions of the plain. Results showed that the modified DRASTIC frameworks performed well, compared to the unmodified DRASTIC. When measured NO₃ concentrations were correlated with the vulnerability indices produced by each method, the unmodified DRASTIC method performed most poorly, and the Wilcoxon–GA–DRASTIC method proved optimal. Compared to the unmodified DRASTIC method with an R² of 0.22, the Wilcoxon–GA–DRASTIC obtained a maximum R² value of 0.78. Modification of DRASTIC parameter ratings was found to be more efficient than the modification of the weights in establishing an accurately calibrated DRASTIC framework. However, modification of parameter ratings and weights together increased the R² value to the highest degree.