Evaluation of the Instability Risk of the Dam Slopes Simulated with Monte Carlo method (Case Study: Alborz Dam)

Embankment dams are one of the most important geotechnical structures that their failures can lead to disastrous damages. One of the main causes of dam failure is its slope instability. Slope Stability analysis has traditionally been performed using the deterministic approaches. These approaches show the safety of slope only with factor of safety that this factor cannot take into account the uncertainty in soil parameters. Hence, to investigate the impact of uncertainties in soil parameters on slope stability, probabilistic analysis by Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) method was used in this research. MCS method is a computational algorithm that uses random sampling to compute the results. This method studies the probability of slope failure using the distribution function of soil parameters. Stability analysis of upstream and downstream slopes of Alborz dam in all different design modes was done in both static and quasi-static condition. Probability of failure and reliability index were investigated for critical failure surfaces. Based on the reliability index obtained in different conditions, it can be said that the downstream and upstream slope of the Alborz dam is stable. The results show that although the factor of safety for upstream slope in the state of earthquake loading was enough, but the results derived from probabilistic analysis indicate that the factor of safety is not adequate. Also the upstream slope of the Alborz dam is unstable under high and uncontrolled explosions conditions in steady seepage from different levels under quasi-static terms.

     

“H” Shaped Echelon Joints Under Uniaxial Loading

Geotechnical and Geological Engineering - In this investigation, the failure behaviour of “H” shaped non-persistent cracks under uniaxial load has been examined using experimental tests...     

Prediction of safety factors for slope stability: comparison of machine learning techniques

Natural Hazards - Because of the disasters associated with slope failure, the analysis and forecasting of slope stability for geotechnical engineers are crucial. In this work, in order to forecast...     

Early Mesozoic sedimentary‒tectonic evolution of the Central-East Iranian Microcontinent: Evidence from a provenance study of the Nakhlak Group

In Central Iran, the mixed siliciclastic?carbonate Nakhlak Group of Triassic age is commonly seen to have a Cimmerian affinity, although it shows considerable resemblances with the Triassic Aghdarband Group in far northeastern Iran, east of Kopeh-Dagh area, with Eurasian affinity. The Nakhlak Group is composed of the Alam (Late Olenekian?Anisian), Baqoroq (Late Anisian??Early Ladinian), and Ashin (Ladinian??Early Carnian) formations consisting mainly of volcanoclastic sandstone and shale and fossiliferous limestone. The Baqoroq Formation contains also metamorphic detritus. Sandstone petrofacies reflect the detrital evolution from active volcanism to growing orogen and again active volcanism. Textural and modal analyses of volcanic lithic fragments from the Alam Formation reflect the eruption style and magma composition of a felsic to intermediate syn-sedimentary arc activity. The detrital modes of the Baqoroq Formation sediments suggest a recycled orogenic source followed by arc activity in a remnant fore-arc basin. The sandstone samples from the Ashin Formation demonstrate a continuity of felsic to intermediate arc activity. Major and trace element concentrations of the Nakhlak Group clastic samples support sediment supply from first-cycle material and felsic magmatic arc input. The enrichment in LREE, the negative Eu anomalies, and the flat HREE patterns indicate origination from the old upper continental crust and young arc material. The chemical index of alteration (CIA ～51–70 for sandstone and 64–76 for shale samples) indicates medium degrees of chemical weathering at the source. Petrographical and geochemical evidence together with facies analysis constructed the following depositional conditions for the Nakhlak Group sediments: In the Olenekian, a fore-arc shallow to deep marine depositional basin developed that later was filled by recycled and arc-related detritus and changed into a continental basin in the Anisian. Ladinian extension let to a deepening of the basin. With respect to the similarities between the Nakhlak and Aghdarband (NE Iran) groups and unusual present-day position of the Nakhlak Group with no stratigraphic connection to the surrounding area, the development of first a fore-arc basin and later change into a back-arc depositional basin in close relation with the Aghdarband basin at the southern Eurasian active margin in the Triassic are here proposed. Understanding the basin development recorded in the Nakhlak Group provides constraints on the closure history of Palaeotethys and of the tectonic evolution of early Mesozoic basins at the southern Eurasian margin before the Cimmerian Orogeny.     

Analysis of the climate change effect on wheat production systems and investigate the potential of management strategies

In an emergency, schools are responsible for the safety of students until they can be reunited with their families. This study explored emergencies (i.e. bomb threat, a flood, and an earthquake) in three case study schools in New Zealand. Within each case, a selection of stakeholders (i.e. school leaders, staff, and parents) shared their experiences of responding to emergency events in the school. Lessons from participants’ experiences established factors before, during, and after an emergency that contribute to an effective response. Foremost among those factors was the importance of prior preparation. The study also identified recurring response activities, irrespective of emergency type, which enabled the development of a six-stage model of an effective school-based emergency response. The stages are: (1) Alerts; (2) Safety behaviours; (3) Response actions; (4) Student release/Family reunification; (5) Temporary school closure; and (6) Business as usual. The present study contributes to our understanding of research investigating how schools respond to emergencies and therefore seeks to enhance school safety efforts.     

Identifying regional dust transport pathways: ­application of kinematic trajectory modelling to a trans‐Tasman case

A kinematic trajectory model is used to investigate potential pathways of dust transport from Australia to New Zealand. Historically, these have been assumed to follow rather direct west–east trajectories spanning 2 to 3 days, often resulting in red snow events in the Southern Alps of New Zealand. However, results from the present study which examined the route taken by air parcels originating in southern Australia during dust storms on 24 and 25 May 1994, indicate that trans‐Tasman dust transport trajectories are more diverse than previously thought, and display considerable variation during single events. These more divergent pathways tie in more closely with aeolian dust sedimentation patterns identified by ocean coring in the Tasman Sea, and may account for the deposition of Australian dust on sub‐Antarctic islands located well south of the Australian continent. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Experimental study and numerical simulation of soil water and salt transport under dry drainage conditions

Coal mining has serious impacts on local environment, including damage to the land and soil by subsidence, damage to ground-water systems through the fracturing and subsiding of overlying rocks, contamination of surface waters with acid mine drainage, and pollution of the atmosphere by release of toxic gases. The damage to ground water and its consequent impacts on the regional environment is the core of research of the coal mining from the perspective of environment protection. The present paper focuses on the changes of surface vegetation coverage, the pollutants released from pit coal power plants, and the damages to the ground aquifers induced by mining activities in arid Eastern Junggar coalfield of China. At first, the authors investigated the changes of surface vegetation coverage, since mining began in the 2000s using Landsat data. Results show that the low surface vegetation coverage (grade 1 plus grade 2) in the southern part of the region decreased from 11.62?×?10⁸ m² in 2003 to 9.57?×?10⁸ m² in 2017 (?17.6%), while it increased from 11.58?×?10⁸ m² in 2003 to 12.70?×?10⁸ m² in 2017 (+?9.7%) in the eastern part. The high surface vegetation coverage (grade 3 plus grade 4) in the southern part increased from 1.94?×?10⁸ m² in 2003 to 4.00?×?10⁸ m² in 2017 (+?106.2%), while it decreased from 4.39?×?10⁸ m² in 2003 to 3.26?×?10⁸ m² in 2017 (?25.74%) in the eastern part. The data of annual precipitation during the same period in this area show that the changes of surface vegetation coverage have less relationship with the annual precipitation, which indicates that the mining activities is probably the major factor for that. Second, a statistic of air pollutants generated from pit coal power plants was made based on data of references. Results show that the estimated gaseous pollutant emissions increased as 865.23 tons of smoke particles, 5940.73 tons of SO₂, and 7584.48 tons of NO₂ in 2013, which increased rapidly with 9.73 times the smoke particle, 21.69 times the SO₂, and 9.24 times the NO₂ than that of 2007. And then, the physical and numerical simulation of the damage of mining activities to aquifers was made to show the permeability of the reference points of overlying aquifers varies associated with mining activities. Results show that the porous rock matrix permeability has a negative relationship with fluctuation during mining, while the fracture permeability shows a positive one. Finally, a case investigation in southern area surrounding this coalfield was illustrated. Result shows that the local ground-water level decreased by 16 m difference from the altitude level of?+?774 m in 2003 to?+?758 m in 2013. Data and results from this study presented the already and the potential pollutions and damages to local environment induced by the mining activities in this region.

     

Seismic hazard analysis and local site effect of the 2017 Mw 7.3 Sarpol-e Zahab,Iran, earthquake

Natural Hazards - A strong earthquake occurred on November 12, 2017, in Sarpol-e Zahab city, western Iran, with the moment magnitude ( $$M_{{\text{w}}}$$ ) of 7.3 and a focal depth of...     

Aftershock probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Bushehr province in Iran using ETAS model

Natural Hazards - Aftershock probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (APSHA) has a key role in risk management after a major earthquake. The main goal of the current study is to assess aftershock...