Reservoir operation using system dynamics under climate change impacts: a case study of Yamchi reservoir,Iran

This paper proposes a decision support system for Yamchi reservoir operation in semi-arid region of Iran. The paper consists of the following steps: Firstly, the potential impacts of climate change on the streamflow are predicted. The study then presents the projections of future changes in temperature and precipitation under A2 scenario using the LARS-WG downscaling model and under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 using the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) in the northwestern of Iran. To do so, a general circulation model of HadCM3 is downscaled by using the LARS-WG model. As a result, the average temperature, for the horizon 2030 (2011–2030), will increase by 0.77 °C and precipitation will decrease by 11 mm. Secondly, the downscaled variables are used as input to the artificial neural network to investigate the possible impact of climate change on the runoffs. Thirdly, the system dynamics model is employed to model different scenarios for reservoir operation using the Vensim software. System dynamics is an effective approach for understanding the behavior of complex systems. Simulation results demonstrate that the water shortage in different sectors (including agriculture, domestic, industry, and environmental users) will be enormously increased in the case of business-as-usual strategy. In this research, by providing innovative management strategies, including deficit irrigation, the vulnerability of reservoir operation is reduced. The methodology is evaluated by using different modeling tests which then motivates using the methodology for other arid/semi-arid regions.     

A correlation between P-wave velocity and Schmidt hardness with mechanical properties of travertine building stones

As known, P-wave velocity and Schmidt hardness are non-destructive tests, which have been used for many years in geological, geotechnical, and civil engineering as an index tests for a quick assessment of rocks mechanical properties due to its rapidity and easiness, and non-destructiveness. The purpose of this study is to investigate the correlation between P-wave velocity and Schmidt hardness with some of mechanical properties of travertine building stones by empirical equations. Moreover, we have compared the accuracy of P-wave velocity and Schmidt hardness to estimate the mechanical properties of rocks. For this purpose, 15 types of travertine have been collected from various quarries of Iran and tested. The tests include the determination of P-wave velocity and Schmidt hardness, and mechanical properties include the unconfined compressive strength, Brazilian tensile strength, and point load strength. Using data analysis, empirical equations have been developed for estimating the mechanical properties from P-wave velocity and Schmidt hardness. To check the validity of the empirical equations, a t test was performed, which confirmed the validity of the proposed empirical equations. Moreover, the results show that P-wave velocity appears to be more reliable than the Schmidt hardness for estimating the mechanical properties. Consequently, we propose empirical equations avoiding from cumbersome and time consuming tests for determining the mechanical properties of rocks.     

Groundwater risk assessment based on optimization framework using DRASTIC method

Due to anthropogenic influences and large amounts of pollutant released into the groundwater, it is vital to investigate groundwater quality and to characterize susceptible areas to contamination. In this paper, a new optimization-based methodology is proposed for determining groundwater risk using DRASTIC model based on genetic algorithm optimization model and Wilcoxon test. The correlation coefficient between DRASTIC/modified DRASTIC indices and nitrate concentrations in monitoring wells is used as a criteria for evaluating the efficiency of the proposed models. In this regard, because of the unsatisfactory original DRASTIC’s result, sensitivity analysis, genetic algorithm (GA), and Wilcoxon test (1945) are carried out to tackle the subjectivity associated with the original DRASTIC model and obtain better and reliable results. The results indicate that application of Wilcoxon test and GA optimization outperforms the others. Consequently, the correlation coefficient increased remarkably as compared to the original DRASTIC model (from 0.57 to 0.82). The proposed optimization process is adaptable to be applied in different case studies; mainly since it has the ability to optimize the weights of the model based on hydrogeological characteristics of the aquifer. Finally, the risk maps of the models are prepared using ArcGIS® to determine the most vulnerable areas.     

Estimating width of the stable channels using multivariable mathematical models

Predicting behavior and the geometry of the channels and alluvial rivers in which the erosion and sediment transport are in equilibrium is one of the most important topics in river engineering. Various researchers have proposed empirical equations to estimate stable river width (W). In this research, empirical equations were examined and tested with a comprehensive available data set consisting of 1644 points collected from 29 stable rivers in various parts of the world. The data set covers a wide range of flow conditions, river geometry, and bed sediments. This data set is classified in two groups (W < 600 m and W ≥ 600 m) for presenting the new models. The new linear and nonlinear multivariable equations were fitted to these two groups, and the best models were selected by preliminary tests and diagnostic determined for each group. The determination coefficient of these models ranged from 0.87 to 0.96. The results show that the models presented in this paper are more accurate with respect to the previously presented models. In the second part, “Artificial neural networks,” perceptron was used and a new methodology for estimating stable channel width was developed. Comparison of the statistical methods presented in this paper and the results of perceptron neural network revealed preferential recent method.     

Depositional Controls on the Ichnology of Ordovician Wave-dominated Marine Facies: New Evidence from the Shirgesht Formation, Central Iran

The Lower Ordovician Shirgesht Formation in central Iran is composed of siliciclastic and carbonate rocks deposited in diverse coastal and marine shelfal environments (tidal flat, lagoon, shoreface, offshore-shelf and carbonate ramp). Five facies associations contain diverse ichnofossil assemblages that show distinct proximal to distal trends formed in a wide range of physical-chemical conditions. The ethological groups of trace fossils in the Shirgesht Formation reflect a gradient of depositional stress conditions across a wave-influenced shoreline and shelf. Deposits of wave-influenced environments make up a significant component of the geological record of shallow marine settings, and the ability to determine paleoenvironments in detail in such successions is critical for reconstruction of depositional histories and sequence-stratigraphic interpretation.The Cruziana ichnofacies of the study shows highly diverse suites that record the establishment of a benthic community under stable conditions and a long-term colonization window. The Skolithos ichnofacies recognized is a low diversity opportunistic ichnocommunity suite that resulted from colonization after tempestite deposition in a stressed environment. The strata record an onshore to offshore replacement of the Cruziana ichnofacies (with abundant feeding traces of deposit-feeders) by the Skolithos ichnofacies (dominated by suspension-feeders and predators). A transitional zone between the two ichnofacies coincides with the offshore-transition/distal lower-surface deposits. The distribution of ichnofacies, the diversity and range of ethological characteristics reflected by the ichnogenera, and the wide range of wave-dominated coastal facies demonstrate the potential to use individual trace fossils and ichnofacies for significantly refined palaeoenvironmental analysis of wave-dominated coastal settings, particularly in Ordovician successions.     

Spatiotemporal trends of temperature extremes in Bangladesh under changing climate using multi-statistical techniques

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - The rise in the frequency and magnitude of extreme temperature phenomena across the globe has led to the recurrent incidence of global climate hazards, which...     

A hybrid clustering-fusion methodology for land subsidence estimation

In many parts of Canada, limited data are available for hydrodynamic model inputs, and the ability to generate quality flood grids through 1D, 2D or 3D methods is nonviable. In this paper, the capability of simplified flood models, which rely solely on digital terrain models (DTMs), was explored to assess the quality and speed of their results. Results were validated against historic floods in two locations. Three non-physics-based simplified conceptual flood models were tested: (1) planar method, (2) inclined plane and (3) height above nearest drainage network (HAND) model. The accuracy and performance were evaluated using three criteria: inundation extent, water depth and computation time. Findings show that the HAND model is the best predictor of inundation extent, with Probability of Detection and Critical Success Index being higher than 0.90 in both study areas. Though the preprocessing time for the HAND model is lengthy, once completed, the time to simulate flooding at a variety of water levels is rapid, making this model the most suitable choice for web-based, on-demand flood inundation mapping. Knowledge of the fit of these flood models and associated uncertainty can be helpful to emergency managers such that they can better understand exposure and vulnerability while preparing flood response plans.