Probabilistic Assessment of Tsunami Recurrence in the Indian Ocean

The Indian Ocean is one of the most tsunamigenic regions of the world and recently experienced a mega-tsunami in the Sumatra region on 26 December 2004 (M _W 9.2 earthquake) with tsunami intensity I (Soloviev-Imamura intensity scale) equal to 4.5, causing heavy destruction of lives and property in the Indian Ocean rim countries. In this study, probabilities of occurrences of large tsunamis with tsunami intensities I ≥ 2.0 and I ≥ 3.0 (average wave heights H ≥ 2.83 m and H ≥ 5.66 m, respectively) during a specified time interval were calculated using three stochastic models, namely, Weibull, gamma and lognormal. Tsunami recurrence was calculated for the whole Indian Ocean and the special case of the Andaman-Sumatra-Java (ASJ) region, excluding the 1945 Makran event from the main data set. For this purpose, a reliable, homogeneous and complete tsunami catalogue with I ≥ 2.0 during the period 1797–2006 was used. The tsunami hazard parameters were estimated using the method of maximum likelihood. The logarithm of likelihood function (ln L) was estimated and used to test the suitability of models in the examined region. The Weibull model was observed to be the most suitable model to estimate tsunami recurrence in the region. The sample mean intervals of occurrences of tsunamis with intensity I ≥ 2.0 and I ≥ 3.0 were calculated for the observed data as well as for the Weibull, gamma and lognormal models. The estimated cumulative and conditional probabilities in the whole Indian Ocean region show recurrence periods of about 27–30 years (2033–2036) and 35–36 years (2039–2040) for tsunami intensities I ≥ 2.0 and I ≥ 3.0, respectively, while it is about 31–35 years (2037–2041) and 41–42 years (2045–2046) for a tsunami of intensity I ≥ 2.0 and I ≥ 3.0, respectively, in the ASJ region. A high probability (>0.9) of occurrence of large tsunamis with I ≥ 2.0 in the next 30–40 years in the Indian Ocean region was revealed.     

Effect of linear waves on kinetic Alfvén wave localization and turbulent spectrum

We have presented the localization of kinetic Alfvén wave (KAW) in intermediate β plasma (m _e /m _i ?β?1) by developing a model based on pump kinetic Alfvén wave and finite amplitude magnetosonic fluctuations. When KAW is perturbed by these background magnetosonic fluctuations, filamentary structures of KAW magnetic field are formed. First, a semi analytical model based on paraxial approximation has been developed to understand this evolution process. Localized structures and magnetic fluctuation spectrum of KAW has also been studied numerically for finite frequency of KAW. The calculated magnetic fluctuation spectrum follows two types of scalings. Above the proton gyroradius scale lengths (in inertial range), spectrum follows Kolmogorovian scaling. Below this scale dispersion starts and the spectrum steepens to about \(k_{x}^{-2.5}\) . The result shows the steepening of power spectra which can be responsible for particle acceleration in solar wind due to the energy transfer from larger to smaller lengthscales. Obtained magnetic turbulent spectra are consistent with observations of Cluster spacecraft in solar wind.     

Unified numerical study of shallow foundation on structured soft clay under unconsolidated and consolidated-undrained loadings

Abstract

Based on a new elasto-plastic constitutive model, this paper presents a soil–water coupled numerical prediction of the bearing capacity for shallow foundation constructed on Ballina soft clay for unconsolidated undrained (UU) and consolidated undrained (CU) conditions. This elasto-plastic constitutive Shanghai model has an advantage of describing the mechanical behaviour of over-consolidated and structured soil under different loading and drainage conditions, by using one set of material parameter. In this paper, the Shanghai model used for both UU and CU conditions has the same initial parameters obtained from laboratory test results. The loading conditions and consolidation stages vary based on construction details. The predicted bearing pressure-settlement responses for UU and CU, approves the field observation. The phenomenon of gaining the bearing capacity due to consolidation is captured and explained by the use of soil–water coupled numerical analysis with a new elasto-plastic model. The stress strain behaviour, stress paths and the decay of the structure of elements at different depths presented in this study, reveal the mechanism for the difference between UU and CU conditions to understand the foundation behaviour. Effect of the initial degree of soil structure on the bearing capacity is also addressed. Overall, this approach provides the integrated solution for the shallow foundation design problems under short and long-term loadings.     

Pre-and post-construction status of panam reservoir and its environs using remotely sensed and ancillary data

The success of water-resources projects can be evaluated by using remotely sensed and ancillary data supported by ground-based information. Surficial features in the vicinity of Panam reservoir of the Mahi-Kadana river-valley project, have been demarcated using IRS data of 1991 (post-commission) and 1969 topographic sheet information (prior to commission) and have been evaluated. Observed positive and negative changes indicate that the project maintains its environment-friendly function.     

Estimation of petrol and diesel adulteration with kerosene and assessment of usefulness of selected automobile fuel quality test parameters

Kerosene is common adulterant utilized for mixing with diesel. Five fuel-adulterant mixtures in different proportions by volume were prepared and individually tested for density and kinematic viscosity. The mixtures were administered to six light cargo vehicles and the tail pipe exhaust emission was tested for opacity value. No appreciable density variation at different levels of adulteration was observed. Density was within the prescribed value even at higher adulteration. Considerable decrease in kinematic viscosity, a departure from prescribed viscosity, was noted at higher adulteration level. The percent opacity value decreased sharply even at small level of adulteration. The probable amount of kerosene present as an adulterant in diesel dispensed at filling stations in Kathmandu city ranged between 35% and 50%. The observations suggest density test is not a good indicator of diesel adulteration. Kinematic viscosity and opacity value are useful diesel adulteration test parameters. Existing diesel adulteration warrants initiation of strict compliance regulation.     

Identifying Water Storage Variation in Krishna Basin,India from <Emphasis Type="Italic">in situ</Emphasis> and Satellite based Hydrological Data

Terrestrial water storage (TWS), a sum total of water stored on or beneath the earth’s surface, transits in response to hydroclimatic processes such as precipitation, evapo-transpiration, runoff etc. and serves an indicator of hydrological condition of a region. We analyse spatio-temporal variance of water storage in Krishna Basin, India, derived from in-situ groundwater data and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data in order to determine physical causes of variations, and compare the variance with climatic factors such as Cumulative Rainfall Departure (CRD) and drought index i.e. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). GRACE satellite based TWS is found to reflect insitu groundwater changes and also shows a relationship with drought patterns as indicated by a good correlation with SPI. The largest part of TWS represents seasonal flux, and at an interannual scale, TWS depicts spatio-temporal variability in response to drought index viz. SPI. We infer that the groundwater storage derived from GRACE time-variable gravity solutions can be utilised to complement in-situ observations at basin scale and it reflects climatic forcing quite well.     

Geo-chemical Behavior of Uranium in the Sambhar Salt Lake, Rajasthan (India): Implications to "Source" of Salt and Uranium "Sink"

Among several salt lakes in the Thar Desert of western India, the Sambhar is the largest lake producing about 2 × 10⁵ tons of salt (NaCl) annually. The “lake system” (lake waters, inflowing river waters, and sub-surface brines) provides a unique setting to study the geo-chemical behavior of uranium isotopes (²³⁸U, ²³⁴U) in conjunction with the evolution of brines over the annual wetting and evaporation cycles. The concentration of ²³⁸U and the total dissolved solids (TDS) in lake water increase from ~8 μg L⁻¹ and ~8 g L⁻¹ in monsoon to ~1,400 μg L⁻¹ and 370 g L⁻¹, respectively, during summer time. The U/TDS ratio (~1 μg g⁻¹ salt) and the ²³⁴U/²³⁸U activity ratio (1.65 ± 0.05), however, remain almost unchanged throughout the year, except when U/TDS ratio approaches to 3.8 at/or beyond halite crystallization. These observations suggest that uranium behaves conservatively in the lake waters during the annual cycle of evaporation. Also, uranium and salt content (TDS) are intimately coupled, which has been used to infer the origin and source of salt in the lake basin. Furthermore, near uniform ratios in evaporating lake waters, when compared to the ratio in seawater (~0.1 μg g⁻¹ salt and 1.14 ± 0.02, respectively), imply that aeolian transport of marine salts is unlikely to be significant source of salt to the lake in the present-day hydrologic conditions. This inference is further consistent with the chemical composition of wet-precipitation occurring in and around the Sambhar lake. The seasonal streams feeding the lake and groundwaters (within the lake’s periphery) have distinctly different ratios of U/TDS (2–69 μg g⁻¹ salt) and ²³⁴U/²³⁸U (1.15–2.26) compared to those in the lake. The average U/TDS ratio of ~1 μg g⁻¹ salt in lake waters and ~19 μg g⁻¹ salt in river waters suggest dilution of the uranium content by the recycled salt and/or removal processes presently operating in the lake during the extraction of salt for commercial use. Based on mass-balance calculations, a conservative estimate of "uranium sink" (in the form of bittern crust) accounts for ~5 tons year⁻¹ from the lake basin, an estimate similar to its input flux from rivers, i.e., 4.4 tons year⁻¹.     

Hydrogeological typologies of the Indo-Gangetic basin alluvial aquifer,South Asia

The Indo-Gangetic aquifer is one of the world’s most important transboundary water resources, and the most heavily exploited aquifer in the world. To better understand the aquifer system, typologies have been characterized for the aquifer, which integrate existing datasets across the Indo-Gangetic catchment basin at a transboundary scale for the first time, and provide an alternative conceptualization of this aquifer system. Traditionally considered and mapped as a single homogenous aquifer of comparable aquifer properties and groundwater resource at a transboundary scale, the typologies illuminate significant spatial differences in recharge, permeability, storage, and groundwater chemistry across the aquifer system at this transboundary scale. These changes are shown to be systematic, concurrent with large-scale changes in sedimentology of the Pleistocene and Holocene alluvial aquifer, climate, and recent irrigation practices. Seven typologies of the aquifer are presented, each having a distinct set of challenges and opportunities for groundwater development and a different resilience to abstraction and climate change. The seven typologies are: (1) the piedmont margin, (2) the Upper Indus and Upper-Mid Ganges, (3) the Lower Ganges and Mid Brahmaputra, (4) the fluvially influenced deltaic area of the Bengal Basin, (5) the Middle Indus and Upper Ganges, (6) the Lower Indus, and (7) the marine-influenced deltaic areas.