Tracking CO2 plume migration during geologic sequestration using a probabilistic history matching approach

Tracking the migration of the CO₂ plume is essential in order to better manage the operation of geologic sequestration of CO₂. However, the large cost of most monitoring technologies, such as time-lapse seismic, limits their application. We investigated the application of a probabilistic history matching methodology using routine measurements of injection data, which are affected by the presence of large-scale heterogeneities, as an inexpensive alternative to track the migration of CO₂ plume in an aquifer. The approach is demonstrated first through a synthetic example in which the ability to detect the presence of flow barriers was tested. In a second example, we applied our method to the In Salah field, one of the largest geological sequestration projects in the world, where the main direction of high permeability features was inferred. The accuracy and reproducibility of the results show that our approach for assisted history matching is an economic and viable option for plume monitoring during geologic CO₂ sequestration.     

Cognitive and affective responses of Florida tourists after exposure to hurricane warning messages

Tourists are particularly vulnerable to natural disasters such as hurricanes since they might be less informed and prepared than residents of disaster-prone areas. Thus, understanding how the traits of a tropical cyclone as well as specific characteristics of tourists influence affective and cognitive responses to a hurricane warning message is a critical component in disaster planning. Using scenarios that presented tropical cyclones with different relevant characteristics (such as category at landfall), tourists’ knowledge, experience with hurricanes, trip traits, and the location of the survey (coastal or inland), this study contributes to the literature on sociological issues related to natural disasters. The findings suggest that risk perceptions and fear are influenced differently by the traits of the hurricanes and tourists’ knowledge and experience. Risk is strongly influenced by the projected category of the hurricane at landfall, while fear is not as sensitive to this extremely relevant trait of cyclones. The results also suggest that the influence of risk and fear on evacuation likelihood is strong and positive. This study shows the value of studying cognitive and affective responses to uncertain events.     

Structural geometry of the early Precambrian terrane south of Coimbatore in the “Palghat Gap”, southern India

The ENE-plunging macroscopic folds, traced by calc gneiss interbanded with marble and sillimanite schist within the Peninsular Gneiss around Suganapuram in the ‘Palghat gap’ in southern India, represent structures of the second generation (D₂). They have folded the axial planes of a set of D₁ isoclinal folds on stratification coaxially, so that the mesoscopic D₁ folds range from reclined in the hinge zones, through inclined to upright in the limb zones of the D₂ folds. Orthogonal relation between stratification and axial planar cleavage, and ‘M’ shaped folds on layering locate the hinge zones of the D₁ folds, whereas folds on axial planar cleavage with ‘M’ shaped folds are the sites of the D₂ fold hinges. Extreme variation in the shapes of the isoclinal D₁ folds from class 1B through class 1C to nearly class 2 of Ramsay is a consequence of buckling followed by flattening on layers of widely varying viscosity contrast. The large ENE-trending structures in this supracrustal belt within the Peninsular Gneiss in the ‘Palghat gap’ could not have evolved by reorientation of NS-trending structures of the Dharwar tectonic province to the north by movement along the Moyar-Bhavani shear zone which marks the boundary between the two provinces. This is because the Moyar and Bhavani faults are steep dipping reverse faults with dominant dip-slip component. Deceased     

Rare earth element geochemistry and Rb-Sr geochronology of Archaean stromatolitic cherts of the Dharwar craton, south India

Stromatolites associated with cherty dolomites of the Vanivilaspura Formation of the Archaean Dharwar Supergroup show a morphology indicative of the deposition of the latter in a intertidal to subtidal environment. The cherts are moderately high in their Al/Al + Fe ratios but depleted in Fe₂C₃ and also most trace elements. Unlike most other Archaean cherts, the Vanivilaspur cherts exhibit significant negative Ce anomaly, which is interpreted to have resulted from contemporary manganese deposition. The Rb/Sr ratios in the cherts show a sufficient spread to define a linear correlation line in the Rb-Sr evolution diagram corresponding to an age of 2512 ± 159 Ma and initial Sr ratio of 0.7128 ± 0.0012 (2σ). While this age is strikingly close to that of regional metamorphism in the Dharwar craton, the initial ratio is distinctly higher than that of the associated volcanics. Acid leaching experiments on the cherts suggest that they may have been isotopically equilibrated on a mm to cm scale about 500 Ma later than the time of regional metamorphism.     

Neogene deep sea benthic foraminiferal diversity in the Indian Ocean: Paleoceanographic implications

The species diversity indices, as defined by the number of species,S; Shannon-Wiener index,H(S) and Buzas-Gibson index,É, of DSDP sites 219, 220, 237 and 238 were measured to determine the benthic foraminiferal diversity patterns in the Indian Ocean deep sea sequences during the Neogene. The Time-Stability hypothesis could satisfactorily explain the observed diversity patterns. The general patterns of diversity suggest environmental stability during the Neogene. However, few small fluctuations in diversity during the Middle Miocene (c.14·8 Ma), Late Miocene (c.6·0 Ma) and Late Pliocene (c.2·0 Ma) may possibly be the effects of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) activity in this region. The benthic foraminiferal diversity in the tropical Indian Ocean is more than the high latitudinal areas with comparable depths.     

Geology,geochemistry and geochronology of the Archaean Peninsular Gneiss around Gorur,Hassan District,Karnataka, India

The Peninsular Gneiss around Gorur in the Dharwar craton, reported to be one of the oldest gneisses, shows nealy E-W striking gneissosity parallel to the axial planes of a set of isoclinal folds (DhF₁). These have been over printed by near-coaxial open folding (DhF₁₂) and non-coaxial upright folding on almost N-S trend (DhF₂). This structural sequence is remarkably similar to that in the Holenarasipur schist belt bordering the gneisses as well as in the surpracrustal enclaves within the gneisses, suggesting that the Peninsular Gneiss has evolved by migmatization synkinematically with DhF₁ deformation. The Gorur gneisses are high silica, low alumina trondhjemites enriched in REE (up to 100 times chondrite), with less fractionated REE patterns (Ce_N/Yb_N < 7) and consistently negative Eu anomalies (Eu/Eu* = 0.5 to 0.7). A whole rock Rb-Sr isochron of eight trondhjemitic gneisses sampled from two adjacent quarries yields an age of 3204 ± 30 Ma with Sr _i of 0.7011 ± 6 (2σ). These are marginally different from the results of Beckinsale and coworkers (3315 ± 54 Ma, Sr _i = 0.7006 ± 3) based on a much wider sampling. Our results indicate that the precursors of Gorur gneisses had a short crustal residence history of less than a 100 Ma.     

Generation of critical stochastic earthquakes

A stochastic critical excitation is defined as that excitation with a given variance that maximizes the variance in the dynamic response of a system. A non-stationary filtered shot noise is used to develop a stochastic critical excitation model of an earthquake ground motion process, and the response statistics for a linear system are determined in both time and frequency domains. The sensitivity of response to several assumed earthquake pulse arrival rate functions is examined. Responses to recorded strong ground motion and to stochastic critical excitations with the same total energy are compared to assess the degree of conservatism in the procedure. An application of the procedure to seismic qualification of equipment is presented.     

A comparative evaluation of IRS-1A LISS-II and landsat MSS images using computer-aided lineament data analysis

Lineament patterns detected from remotely sensed data provide useful information to geoscientists, specially in the study of basement tectonics, groundwater targetting and mineral exploration. Improvements in the spatial resolution of satellite images have resulted in the detection of short and faint lineaments which have hitherto gone unnoticed The IRS-1A LISS-II data offers a significant improvement in spatial resolution as compared to the Landsat MSS. A set of computer programmes developed for analysis of lineaments were used to study the parameters such as lineament frequency, length and density in order to quantify the added information derived using IRS-1A LISS-II images. The incremental contribution of LISS-II images are of the order of 100 per cent for lineament frequency and about 60 per cent for total line kilometers of lineaments detected.     

Simultaneous calibration of surface flow and baseflow simulations: a revisit of the SWAT model calibration framework

Accurate analysis of water flow pathways from rainfall to streams is critical for simulating water use, climate change impact, and contaminants transport. In this study, we developed a new scheme to simultaneously calibrate surface flow (SF) and baseflow (BF) simulations of soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) by combing evolutionary multi‐objective optimization (EMO) and BF separation techniques. The application of this scheme demonstrated pronounced trade‐off of SWAT's performance on SF and BF simulations. The simulated major water fluxes and storages variables (e.g. soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and groundwater) using the multiple parameters from EMO span wide ranges. Uncertainty analysis was conducted by Bayesian model averaging of the Pareto optimal solutions. The 90% confidence interval (CI) estimated using all streamflows substantially overestimate the uncertainty of low flows on BF days while underestimating the uncertainty of high flows on SF days. Despite using statistical criteria calculated based on streamflow for model selection, it is important to conduct diagnostic analysis of the agreement of SWAT behaviour and actual watershed dynamics. The new calibration technique can serve as a useful tool to explore the trade‐off between SF and BF simulations and provide candidates for further diagnostic assessment and model identification. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How to construct future IDF curves,under changing climate,for sites with scarce rainfall records?

Optimal designs of stormwater systems rely very much on the rainfall Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves. As climate has shown significant changes in rainfall characteristics in many regions, the adequacy of the existing IDF curves is called for particularly when the rainfall are much more intense. For data sparse sites/regions, developing IDF curves for the future climate is even challenging. The current practice for such regions is, for example, to ‘borrow’ or ‘interpolate’ data from regions of climatologically similar characteristics. A novel (3‐step) Downscaling‐Comparison‐Derivation (DCD) approach was presented in the earlier study to derive IDF curves for present climate using the extracted Dynamically Downscaled data an ungauged site, Darmaga Station in Java Island, Indonesia and the approach works extremely well. In this study, a well validated (3‐step) DCD approach was applied to develop present‐day IDF curves at stations with short or no rainfall record. This paper presents a new approach in which data are extracted from a high spatial resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM; 30 × 30 km over the study domain) driven by Reanalysis data. A site in Java, Indonesia, is selected to demonstrate the application of this approach. Extremes from projected rainfall (6‐hourly results; ERA40 Reanalysis) are first used to derive IDF curves for three sites (meteorological stations) where IDF curves exist; biases observed resulting from these sites are captured and serve as very useful information in the derivation of present‐day IDF curves for sites with short or no rainfall record. The final product of the present‐day climate‐derived IDF curves fall within a specific range, +38% to +45%. This range allows designers to decide on a value within the lower and upper bounds, normally subjected to engineering, economic, social and environmental concerns. Deriving future IDF curves for Stations with existing IDF curves and ungauged sites with simulation data from RCM driven by global climate model (GCM ECHAM5) (6‐hourly results; A2 emission scenario) have also been presented. The proposed approach can be extended to other emission scenarios so that a bandwidth of uncertainties can be assessed to create appropriate and effective adaptation strategies/measures to address climate change and its impacts. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.