Three-phase numerical model of water migration in partially frozen geological media: model formulation,validation, and applications

Water in the subsurface of the Earth’s cold regions—and possibly the subsurface of Mars—resides in the liquid, vapor, and ice phases. However, relatively few simulations addressing full three-phase, nonisothermal water dynamics in below-freezing porous media have been undertaken. This paper presents a nonisothermal, three-phase approach to modeling water migration in partially frozen porous media. Conservation equations for water (as ice, liquid, and vapor) and a single gas species (in the gas phase and dissolved in water) are coupled to a heat transport equation and solved by a finite-volume method with fully implicit time stepping. Particular attention is given to the method of spatial differencing when the pore space is partially filled with ice. The numerical model is able to reproduce freezing-induced water redistribution observed in laboratory experiments. Simulations of Earth permafrost dynamics and of the formation and evolution of a planetary-scale cryosphere on Mars demonstrate the new capabilities.     

Projections of the impacts of climate change on the water deficit and on the precipitation erosive indexes in Mantaro River Basin,Peru

Projections of climate change are essential to guide sustainable development plans in the tropical Andean countries such as Peru. This study assessed the projections of precipitation and potential evaporation, rain erosive potential, and precipitation concentration in the Mantaro River Basin, in the Peruvian Andes, which is important for agriculture and energy production in Peru. We assumed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario and simulated the global climate change by the HadCM3 global climate model. Due to the steepness of the mountain slopes and the narrowness of the river valley, this study uses the downscaling of the global model simulations by the regional Eta model down to 20-km resolution. The downscaling projections show decrease in the monthly precipitation with respect to the baseline period, especially during the rainy season, between February and April, until the end of the 21st century. Meanwhile, a progressive increase in the monthly evaporation from the baseline period is projected. The Modified Fournier Index (MFI) shows a statistically significant downward trend in the Mantaro River Basin, which suggests a possible reduction in the rain erosive potential. The Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) shows a statistically significant increasing trend, which indicates increasingly more irregular temporal distribution of precipitation towards the end of the century. The results of this study allow us to conclude that there should be a gradual increase in water deficit and precipitation concentration. Both changes can be negative for agriculture, power generation, and water supply in the Mantaro River Basin in Peru.     

Wave breaking on turbulent energy budget in the ocean surface mixed layer

As an important physical process at the air-sea interface, wave movement and breaking have a significant effect on the ocean surface mixed layer （OSML）. When breaking waves occur at the ocean surface, turbulent kinetic energy （TKE） is input downwards, and a sublayer is formed near the surface and turbulence vertical mixing is intensively enhanced. A one-dimensional ocean model including the Mellor-Yamada level 2.5 turbulence closure equations was employed in our research on variations in turbulent energy budget within OSML. The influence of wave breaking could be introduced into the model by modifying an existing surface boundary condition of the TKE equation and specifying its input. The vertical diffusion and dissipation of TKE were effectively enhanced in the sublayer when wave breaking was considered. Turbulent energy dissipated in the sublayer was about 92.0% of the total depth-integrated dissipated TKE, which is twice higher than that of non-wave breaking. The shear production of TKE decreased by 3.5% because the mean flow fields tended to be uniform due to wave-enhanced turbulent mixing. As a result, a new local equilibrium between diffusion and dissipation of TKE was reached in the wave-enhanced layer. Below the sublayer, the local equilibrium between shear production and dissipation of TKE agreed with the conclusion drawn from the classical law-of-the-wall （Craig and Banner, 1994）.     

A landslide inventory system as a base for automated process and risk analyses

Landslide research requires consistent and widespread data. Many countries within the European Union have national landslide inventories to fulfill these demands for their respective research. However, those inventories were usually not intended to provide the technical basis for automated process and risk analyses during their design phase. The ongoing development of Germany’s national landslide database offers the opportunity to do this differently. This paper introduces a landslide inventory system called WISL suitable for data handling as well as for novel automated process and risk analyses on a national scale. WISL is designated to form the technical infrastructure for a German national database. Its core consists of an open source relational database management system (PostgreSQL), standardized input and registration methods as well as integrated analyses modules, which avoid large data movement and allow for rapid risk analyses. We present proof-of-concept results of endangered infrastructure related to automated risk mappings based on topography and proximity of active landslides. The use of open source software and the application of a standardized input and data acquisition system for experts, coupled with custom analysis modules, constitutes a step toward automated risk maps by a mere ‘button-press’. Future developments for the inventory lie in the field of refining and inventing analysis modules and collecting data, for which WISL provides a firm technical base.     

Parameterisation of the Planetary Boundary Layer for Diagnostic Wind Models

The planetary boundary-layer (PBL) parameterization is a key issue for the definition of initial wind flow fields in diagnostic models. However, PBL theories usually treat separately stable, neutral, and convective stability conditions, so that their implementation in diagnostic wind models is not straightforward. In the present paper, an attempt is made to adopt a comprehensive PBL parameterisation, covering stable/neutral and unstable atmospheric conditions, which appears suitable to diagnostic models. This parameterisation is implemented into our diagnostic mass-consistent code. A validation of the consistency between the implemented PBL parameterisations has been checked through an analysis of the sensitivity of the vertical wind profiles to atmospheric stability.     

A global perspective on African climate

We describe the global climate system context in which to interpret African environmental change to support planning and implementation of policymaking action at national, regional and continental scales, and to inform the debate between proponents of mitigation v. adaptation strategies in the face of climate change. We review recent advances and current challenges in African climate research and exploit our physical understanding of variability and trends to shape our outlook on future climate change. We classify the various mechanisms that have been proposed as relevant for understanding variations in African rainfall, emphasizing a “tropospheric stabilization” mechanism that is of importance on interannual time scales as well as for the future response to warming oceans. Two patterns stand out in our analysis of twentieth century rainfall variability: a drying of the monsoon regions, related to warming of the tropical oceans, and variability related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The latest generation of climate models partly captures this recent continent-wide drying trend, attributing it to the combination of anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and greenhouse gases, the relative contribution of which is difficult to quantify with the existing model archive. The same climate models fail to reach a robust agreement regarding the twenty-first century outlook for African rainfall, in a future with increasing greenhouse gases and decreasing aerosol loadings. Such uncertainty underscores current limitations in our understanding of the global climate system that it is necessary to overcome if science is to support Africa in meeting its development goals.     

Generation mechanisms for mesoscale eddies in the Gulf of Lions: radar observation and modeling

Coastal mesoscale eddies were evidenced during a high-frequency radar campaign in the Gulf of Lions (GoL), northwestern Mediterranean Sea, from June 2005 to January 2007. These anticyclonic eddies are characterized by repeated and intermittent occurrences as well as variable lifetime. This paper aims at studying the link between these new surface observations with similar structures suggested at depth by traditional acoustic Doppler current profiler measurements and investigates the eddy generation and driving mechanisms by means of an academic numerical study. The influence of the wind forcing on the GoL circulation and the eddy generation is analyzed, using a number of idealized configurations in order to investigate the interaction with river discharge, buoyancy, and bathymetric effects. The wind forcing is shown to be crucial for two different generation mechanisms: A strong northerly offshore wind (Mistral) generates a vortex column due to the bathymetric constraint of a geostrophic barotropic current, which can surface after the wind relaxes; a southerly onshore wind generates a freshwater bulge from the Rhône river discharge, which detaches from the coast and forms a well-defined surface anticyclonic eddy based on buoyancy gradients. These structures are expected to have important consequences in terms of dispersion or retention of biogeochemical material at local scales.     

Interacting effects of multiple factors on the morphological evolution of the meandering reaches downstream the Three Gorges Dam

Elucidating the influence of dams on fluvial processes can inform river protection and basin management. However, relatively few studies have focused on how multiple factors interact to affect the morphological evolution of meandering reaches. Using hydrological and topographical data, we analyzed the factors that influence and regulate the meandering reaches downstream the Three Gorges Dam (TGD). Our conclusions are as follows. (1) The meandering reaches can be classified into two types based on their evolution during the pre-dam period: G1 reaches, characterized by convex point bar erosion and concave channel deposition (CECD), and G2 reaches, characterized by convex point bar deposition and concave channel erosion (CDCE). Both reach types exhibited CECD features during the post-dam period. (2) Flow processes and sediment transport are the factors that caused serious erosion of the low beaches located in the convex point bars. However, changes in the river regime, river boundaries and jacking of Dongting Lake do not act as primary controls on the morphological evolution of the meandering reaches. (3) Flood discharges ranging from 20,000 to 25,000 m³/s result in greater erosion of convex point bars. The point bars become scoured if the durations of these flows, which are close to bankfull discharge, exceed 20 days. In addition, the reduction in bedload causes the decreasing of point bar siltation in the water-falling period. (4) During the post-dam period, flood abatement, the increased duration of discharges ranging from 20,000 to 25,000 m³/s, and a significant reduction in sediment transport are the main factors that caused meandering reaches to show CECD features. Our results are relevant to other meandering reaches, where they can inform estimates of riverbed change, river management strategies and river protection.     

Numerical simulation of the genesis of typhoon Durian (2001) over the South China Sea: The effect of sea surface temperature

Typhoon Durian (2001),which formed over the South China Sea (SCS),was simulated by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The genesis of typhoon Durian which formed in the monsoon trough was reproduced by numerical simulations. The simulated results agree reasonably well with observations. Two numerical experiments in which the sea surface temperature (SST) was either decreased or increased were performed to investigate the impact of the SST on the genesis of the ty-phoon. When the SST was decreased by 5℃ uniformly for all grids in the model,the winds calculated became divergent in the lower troposphere and convergent in the upper troposphere,creating conditions in which the amount of total latent heat release (TLHR) was low and the tropical cyclone (TC) could not be formed. This simulation shows the importance of the convergence in the lower tropo-sphere and the divergence in the upper troposphere for the genesis of the initial vortex. When the SST was increased by 1℃ uni-formly for all grids,a stronger typhoon was generated in the results with an increase of about 10 m s-1 in the maximum surface wind speed. Only minor differences in intensity were noted during the first 54 h in the simulation with the warmer SST,but apparent dif-ferences in intensity occurred after 54 h when the vortex began to strengthen to typhoon strength. This experiment shows that warmer SST will speed the strengthening from tropical storm strength to typhoon strength and increase the maximum intensity reached,while only minor impact can be seen during the earlier stage of genesis before the TC reaches the tropical storm strength. The results sug-gest that the amount of TLHR may be the dominant factor in determining the formation and the intensification of the TC.     

The Oeschinensee rock avalanche,Bernese Alps,Switzerland: a co-seismic failure 2300 years ago?

Landslide deposits dam Lake Oeschinen (Oeschinensee), located above Kandersteg, Switzerland. However, past confusion differentiating deposits of multiple landslide events has confounded efforts to quantify the volume, age, and failure dynamics of the Oeschinensee rock avalanche. Here we combine field and remote mapping, topographic reconstruction, cosmogenic surface exposure dating, and numerical runout modeling to quantify salient parameters of the event. Differences in boulder lithology and deposit morphology reveal that the landslide body damming Oeschinensee consists of debris from both an older rock avalanche, possibly Kandertal, as well as the Oeschinensee rock avalanche. We distinguish a source volume for the Oeschinensee event of 37 Mm³, resulting in an estimated deposit volume of 46 Mm³, smaller than previous estimates that included portions of the Kandertal mass. Runout modeling revealed peak and average rock avalanche velocities of 65 and 45 m/s, respectively, and support a single-event failure scenario. ³⁶Cl surface exposure dating of deposited boulders indicates a mean age for the rock avalanche of 2.3 ± 0.2 kyr. This age coincides with the timing of a paleo-seismic event identified from lacustrine sediments in Swiss lakes, suggesting an earthquake trigger. Our results help clarify the hazard and geomorphic effects of rare, large rock avalanches in alpine settings.