Statistical landslide susceptibility assessment in a dynamic environment: A case study for Lanzhou City,Gansu Province,NW China

This study presents a statistical landslide susceptibility assessment (LSA) in a dynamic environment. The study area is located in the eastern part of Lanzhou, NW China. The Lanzhou area has exhibited rapid urbanization rates over the past decade associated with greening, continuous land use change, and geomorphic reshaping activities. To consider the dynamics of the environment in the LSA, multitemporal data for landslide inventories and the corresponding causal factors were collected. The weights of evidence (WofE) method was used to perform the LSA. Three time stamps, i.e., 2000, 2012, and 2016, were selected to assess the state of landslide susceptibility over time. The results show a clear evolution of the landslide susceptibility patterns that was mainly governed by anthropogenic activities directed toward generating safer building grounds for civil infrastructure. The low and very low susceptibility areas increased by approximately 10% between 2000 and 2016. At the same time, areas of medium, high and very high susceptibility zones decreased proportionally. Based on the results, an approach to design the statistical LSA under dynamic conditions is proposed, the issues and limitations of this approach are also discussed. The study shows that under dynamic conditions, the requirements for data quantity and quality increase significantly. A dynamic environment requires greater effort to estimate the causal relations between the landslides and controlling factors as well as for model validation.     

Assessments on slope instabilities triggered by engineering excavations near a small settlement (Turkey)

In this study, the mechanisms of slope instabilities triggered by engineering excavations at location of a planned tunnel portal in the northwest region of Turkey were assessed, and stability of the current slopes which has impacts on safety of a settlement (village) and agricultural fields was investigated. In the first stage of the study, in order to identify the geological units and structural properties of the sedimentary rocks in the area, to clarify the mechanisms of instabilities and to characterize discontinuity and rock mass properties field works were conducted. In this content, geotechnical boreholes, geophysical explorations between the boreholes, line surveys to explore discontinuity properties, preparation of slope profiles using topographical techniques and sampling of rock blocks and discontinuity planes were performed. In the second stage, laboratory tests were carried out on the samples to determine the geomechnical properties of the slope forming materials and discontinuities. Then, back analyses of the instabilities were made to assess the responsible shear strength parameters of the geological units during failures by considering laboratory shear test results too. Based on the backanalyses of the failures, the strength properties of the slope debris were estimated, and it has been clarified that the residual shear strength properties are the factors controlling slip mechanism along the beddings. Following the stability analyses, it is understood that a further instability along the mass or bedding planes in the failed and redesigned area are not expected, if the current slope geometry is not changed. However, safety factor calculated for the slope in the debris is 1.1 which is well below the recommended value in the literature. The minimum safety factor for currently stable slopes which were cut at the eastern part of the failed area is 1.22 which is also less than that suggested in literature. Some remedial measures such as mini-pile or slope flattening are suggested after analyses to increase the factor of safety for this part below the settlement.     

Quantitative morphometric analysis of the Jama River profile in a tectonically active margin (Northwestern Ecuador)

The longitudinal profile of a river channel can be described in function of mathematical expressions. The logarithmic fit is the most used method to describe the relative equilibrium of a channel elevation profile. Rivers showing zones of high channel gradient and convex-upward profiles can be evaluated in function of the offset distance with respect to the logarithmic curve. The Jama River profile has been constructed using differential GPS data for the downstream reach and 4-m-grid DEM data base for the remaining headward profile. The resulting longitudinal profile shows a prominent knickpoint of about 80 m in elevation characterized by sharp local convexity. The offset distance in vertical direction from the logarithmic plot is interpreted as the successive accumulation of multiple uplift episodes associated with the Jama Fault System activity. The horizontal offset is suggested to represent the remaining retreated distance for the upstream propagation of the Jama knickpoint. The highly resistant Cretaceous rocks outcropping along the Jama knickpoint reach acts as an inflection point between two subprofiles that show well-fitted logarithmic curves, thereby representing a temporary partitioned equilibrium along the Jama River profile.     

Latitudinal and temporal shifts in the radial growth-climate response of Siberian larch in the Polar Urals

This paper presents a dendroclimatic analysis of Siberian larch trees sampled along a latitudinal 260-km transect located in the Polar Urals,Russia. Three standardised chronologies were built over a length of 230–293 years using 79 individual tree-ring chronologies collected in the southern,middle and northern parts of the Polar Urals.Bootstrapped correlation functions showed that the annual growth of the larches was mainly influenced by the air temperatures in June and July. The relative role of the temperatures increased from south to north. Daily air temperature data analysis revealed that the duration of the growing season in the northern part of the Polar Urals is 24 days less than that in the southern part. At the present time, air temperatures exceeded threshold of 8~℃, 5 days earlier than it did in the beginning of the 20 th century In response to the increase in the duration of the growing season and the changing winter conditions in the Polar Urals over the last 130 years, radial growth–temperature relationships in larches have weakened;this effect was strongly pronounced in the southern part of the Polar Urals.     

Estimating aboveground biomass using Pléiades satellite image in a karst watershed of Guizhou Province,Southwestern China

Biomass in karst terrain has rarely been measured because the steep mountainous limestone terrain has limited the ability to sample woody plants.Satellite observation, especially at high spatial resolution, is an important surrogate for the quantification of the biomass of karst forests and shrublands. In this study, an artificial neural network(ANN) model was built using Pléiades satellite imagery and field biomass measurements to estimate the aboveground biomass(AGB) in the Houzhai River Watershed, which is a typical plateau karst basin in Central Guizhou Province, Southwestern China. A back-propagation ANN model was also developed.Seven vegetation indices, two spectral bands of Pléiades imagery, one geomorphological parameter,and land use/land cover were selected as model inputs. AGB was chosen as an output. The AGB estimated by the allometric functions in 78 quadrats was utilized as training data(54 quadrats, 70%),validation data(12 quadrats, 15%), and testing data(12 quadrats, 15%). Data-model comparison showed that the ANN model performed well with an absolute root mean square error of 11.85 t/ha, which was 9.88%of the average AGB. Based on the newly developed ANN model, an AGB map of the Houzhai River Watershed was produced. The average predicted AGB of the secondary evergreen and deciduous broadleaved mixed forest, which is the dominant forest type in the watershed, was 120.57 t/ha. The average AGBs of the large distributed shrubland,tussock, and farmland were 38.27, 9.76, and 11.69 t/ha, respectively. The spatial distribution pattern ofthe AGB estimated by the new ANN model in the karst basin was consistent with that of the field investigation. The model can be used to estimate the regional AGB of karst landscapes that are distributed widely over the Yun-Gui Plateau.     

Global patterns in above-ground net primary production and precipitation-use efficiency in grasslands

The above-ground net primary production(ANPP) and the precipitation-use efficiency(PUE) regulate the carbon and water cycles in grassland ecosystems, but the relationships among the ANPP, PUE and precipitation are still controversial. We selected 717 grassland sites with ANPP and mean annual precipitation(MAP) data from 40 publications to characterize the relationships ANPP–MAP and PUE–MAP across different grassland types. The MAP and ANPP showed large variations across all grassland types, ranging from 69 to 2335 mm and 4.3 to 1706 g m~(-2), respectively. The global maximum PUE ranged from 0.19 to 1.49 g m~(-2) mm~(-1) with a unimodal pattern. Analysis using the sigmoid function explained the ANPP–MAP relationship best at the global scale. The gradient of the ANPP–MAP graph was small for arid and semi-arid sites(MAP 400 mm). This study improves our understanding of the relationship between ANPP and MAP across dry grassland ecosystems. It provides new perspectives on the prediction and modeling of variations in the ANPP for different grassland types along precipitation gradients.     

Assessment of prospective hazards resulting from the 2017 earthquake at the world heritage site Jiuzhaigou Valley,Sichuan, China

On August 8, 2017, a Ms = 7.0 magnitude earthquake occurred in the Jiuzhaigou Valley, in Sichuan Province, China(N: 33.20°, E: 103.82°). Jiuzhaigou Valley is an area recognized and listed as a world heritage site by UNESCO in 1992. Data analysis and field survey were conducted on the landslide, collapse, and debris flow gully, to assess the coseismic geological hazards generated by the earthquake using an unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV), remote-sensing imaging, laser range finders, geological radars, and cameras. The results highlighted the occurrence of 13 landslides, 70 collapses, and 25 potential debris flow gullies following the earthquake. The hazards were classified on the basis of their size and the potential property loss attributable to them. Consequently, 14 large-scale hazards, 30 medium-sized hazards, and 64 small hazards accounting for 13%, 28%, and 59% of the total hazards, respectively, were identified. Based on the variation tendency of the geological hazards that ensued in areas affected by the Kanto earthquake(Japan), Chi-chi earthquake(Taiwan China), and Wenchuan earthquake(Sichuan China), the study predicts that, depending on the rain intensity cycle, the duration of geological hazard activities in the Jiuzhaigou Valley may last over ten years and will gradually decrease for the following five to ten yearsbefore returning to pre-earthquake levels. Thus,necessary monitoring and early warning systems must be implemented to ensure the safety of residents,workers and tourists during the construction of engineering projects and reopening of scenic sites to the public.     

Impacts of tourism development on the physical environment of Mussoorie,a hill station in the lower Himalayan range of India

Tourism in mountainous regions is a significant source of revenue generation. However, it has also been associated with many adverse environmental consequences. This study aims at assessing the negative impacts of the incessant upsurge in tourism development on the physical environment of Mussoorie, a well-known mountain tourist destination in India. The impact indicators for the region were identified and assessed by qualitative and quantitative analysis of field observations. The observations indicated the aggravation of traffic congestion, atmospheric pollution, undisposed solid waste, water scarcity and infrastructure unavailability as the prevalent issues, especially during the peak tourist months. The extent of the consequential damage to the environment was evaluated by conducting an assessment of tourism-induced human disturbance on the natural landscape of the town. Slope, slope aspect, vegetation cover, road network and drainage network were incorporated as the determining landscape attributes to prepare thematic maps of landscape quality (perceivable intrinsic properties) and landscape fragility (vulnerability to anthropogenic disturbances) using GIS technique. An absorption capacity map was finally prepared to characterize the study area into regions of different conservation needs. The results identified the need for planning appropriate preservation strategies for different tourist places in the town. The study can be used by the policy makers for implementing the regulatory measures against potential disturbances due to mass-tourism.     

Differentiated payments for environmental services schemes: Amethodology proposal

Payment schemes for environmental services face serious budget constraints in Mexico. Payments are equally distributed among forest owners, and the governmental agencies that make payments to beneficiaries do not evaluate the amount of environmental services produced by forested areas. This lack of evaluation could lead to economic and environmental deficiencies that restrict the possible benefits of such programmes. In general, these programmes do not achieve their conservation objectives, and local beneficiaries are not involved in the design or application of these programmes. Similarly, the Payments for Hydrological Environmental Services (PHES) programme of the State of Mexico, Mexico, makes equal payments to beneficiaries of forested areas considering tree density. The objective of the present work was to create a methodology for determining differentiated payments schemes for hydrological environmental services, prioritising areas that contribute the most to groundwater recharge and promote the participation of society. In the Nevado de Toluca Natural Protected Area, the environmental criteria of forest type, tree density and aquifer overexploitation as well as social participation were considered in a multi-criteria analysis implemented in a Geographic Information System. A methodology was developed to determine differentiated payments based on specific forest characteristics that influence the potential capacity of forests to recharge groundwater reserves in addition to the level of social participation. In particular, social participation is key as it could ensure the viability of PHES programmes as conservation alternatives in forested areas with high groundwater recharge potential.     

Using multispectral landsat and sentinel-2 satellite data to investigate vegetation change at Mount St. Helens since the great volcanic eruption in 1980

Long-term analyses of vegetation succession after catastrophic events are of high interest for an improved understanding of succession dynamics. However, in many studies such analyses were restricted to plot-based measurements. Contrarily, spatially continuous observations of succession dynamics over extended areas and time-periods are sparse. Here, we applied a change vector analysis (CVA) to investigate vegetation succession dynamics at Mount St. Helens after the great volcanic eruption in 1980 using Landsat. We additionally applied a supervised random forest classification using Sentinel-2 data to map the currently prevailing vegetation types. Change vector analysis was performed with the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the urban index (UI) for three subsequent decades after the eruption as well as for the whole observation time between 1984 and 2016. The influence of topography on the current vegetation distribution was examined by comparing altitude, slope angles and aspect values of vegetation classes derived by the random forest classification. Wilcox- Rank-Sum test was applied to test for significant differences between topographic properties of the vegetation classes inside and outside of the areas affected by the eruption. For the full time period, a total area of 516 km² was identified as re-vegetated, whereas the area and magnitude of re-growing vegetation decreased during the three decades and migrated closer to the volcanic crater. Vegetation losses were mainly observed in regions unaffected by the eruption and related mostly to timber harvesting. The vegetation type classification reached a high overall accuracy of approximately 90%. 36 years after the eruption, coniferous and deciduous trees have established at formerly devastated areas dominating with a proportion of 66%, whereas shrubs are more abundant in riparian zones. Sparse vegetation dominates at regions very close to the crater. Elevation was found to have a great influence on the reestablishment and distribution of the vegetation classes within the devastated areas showing in almost all cases significant differences in altitude distribution. Slope was less important for the different classes - only representing significantly higher values for meadows, whereas aspect seems to have no notable influence on the reestablishment of vegetation at Mount St. Helens. We conclude that major vegetation succession dynamics after catastrophic events can be assessed and characterized over large areas from freely available remote sensing data and hence contribute to an improved understanding of succession dynamics.