Would different methodologies for assessing carbon leakage exposure lead to different risk levels? A case study of the Brazilian industry

Energy-intensive industries play an important role in low-carbon development, being particularly exposed to climate policies. Concern over possible carbon leakage in this sector poses a major challenge for designing effective carbon pricing instruments (CPI). Different methodologies for assessing carbon leakage exposure are currently used by different jurisdictions, each of them based on different approaches and indicators. This paper aims to analyse the extent to which the use of different methodologies leads to different results in terms of exposure to the risk of carbon leakage, using the Brazilian industry sector as a case study. Results indicate that carbon leakage exposure is an expected outcome of eventual CPI implementation in Brazilian industry. However, results vary according to the chosen methodology, so the definition of the criteria is paramount for assessing sectoral exposure to the risk of carbon leakage.

Key policy insights

• Despite increasing discussion about the implementation of carbon pricing on the Brazilian industrial sector, the evaluation of carbon leakage risks is still neglected.

• Assessments of the risk of carbon leakage are directly related to the indicators and criteria used by each methodology. Thus, a given subsector may present different levels of exposure to carbon leakage depending on the methodological choice.

• More than a purely technical discussion, the methodological definition of carbon leakage risk is a political discussion – it can be well-conducted, leading to the success of a CPI, or even sabotaged, by implicitly subsidizing energy-intensive industries.

     

Biochemical alterations in juvenile carp (Cyprinus carpio) exposed to zinc: glutathione reductase as a target

The aim of this study was to investigate biochemical changes in juvenile carp (Cyprinus carpio) exposed to zinc chloride (10, 30 and 100 microM) for a period of 48 h. Zinc exposure caused a concentration-dependent reduction in glutathione reductase (GR) activity in gills, liver and brain. Gill glutathione S-transferase (GST) was reduced when animals were exposed to the highest concentration of 100 microM zinc. The phosphorylation of p38(MAPK) increased in the brain of fish exposed to zinc 100 microM, while phosphorylation of the extracellular signal-regulated protein kinase 1/2 (ERK1/2) and c-Jun N-terminal protein kinase 1/2 (JNK1/2) remained unchanged. Expression of proteins HSP60 and HSP70 were not affected by zinc exposure. Considering the significant concentration-dependent inhibition of GR in all tissues analyzed, this enzyme could be a potential biomarker of exposure to zinc, which has to be confirmed.     

Regional stratigraphy and distribution of epigenetic stratabound celestine, fluorite, barite and Pb–Zn deposits in the MVT province of northeastern Mexico

Northeastern Mexico hosts numerous epigenetic stratabound carbonate-hosted low-temperature hydrothermal deposits of celestine, fluorite, barite and zinc-lead, which formed by replacement of Mesozoic evaporites or carbonate rocks. Such deposits can be permissively catalogued as Mississippi Valley-type (MVT) deposits. The deposits studied in the state of Coahuila are associated with granitic and metasedimentary basement highs (horsts) marginal or central to the Mesozoic Sabinas Basin. These horsts controlled the stratigraphy of the Mesozoic basins and subsequently influenced the Laramide structural pattern. The Sabinas Basin consists of ~6,000-m-thick Jurassic to Cretaceous siliciclastic, carbonate and evaporitic series. The MVT deposits are mostly in Barremian and in Aptian-Albian to Cenomanian formations and likely formed from basinal brines that were mobilized during the Laramide orogeny, although earlier diagenetic replacement of evaporite layers (barite and celestine deposits) and lining of paleokarstic cavities in reef carbonates (Zn–Pb deposits) is observed. Fluid inclusion microthermometry and isotopic studies suggest ore formation due to mixing of basinal brines and meteoric water. Homogenization temperatures of fluid inclusions range from 45°C to 210°C; salinities range from 0 to 26 wt.% NaCl equiv., and some inclusions contain hydrocarbons or bitumen. Sulfur isotope data suggest that most of the sulfur in barite and celestine is derived from Barremian to Cenomanian evaporites. Regional geology and a compilation of metallogenic features define the new MVT province of northeastern Mexico, which comprises most of the state of Coahuila and portions of the neighboring states of Nuevo León, Durango and, perhaps extends into Zacatecas and southern Texas. This province exhibits a regional metal zonation, with celestine deposits to the south, fluorite deposits to the north and barite and Zn–Pb deposits mostly in the central part.     

Early-Morning Flow Transition in a Valley in Low-Mountain Terrain Under Clear-Sky Conditions

We investigate the evolution of the early-morning boundary layer in a low-mountain valley in south-western Germany during COPS (convective and orographically induced precipitation study) in summer 2007. The term low-mountain refers to a mountainous region with a relief of gentle slopes and with an absolute altitude that remains under a specified height (usually 1,500 m a.s.l.). A subset of 23 fair weather days from the campaign was selected to study the transition of the boundary-layer flow in the early morning. The typical valley atmosphere in the morning hours was characterized by a stable temperature stratification and a pronounced valley wind system. During the reversal period—called the low wind period—of the valley wind system (duration of 1–2 h), the horizontal flow was very weak and the conditions for free convection were fulfilled close to the ground. Ground-based sodar observations of the vertical wind show enhanced values of upward motion, and the corresponding statistical properties differ from those observed under windless convective conditions over flat terrain. Large-eddy simulations of the boundary-layer transition in the valley were conducted, and statistical properties of the simulated flow agree with the observed quantities. Spatially coherent turbulence structures are present in the temporal as well as in the ensemble mean analysis. Thus, the complex orography induces coherent convective structures at predictable, specific locations during the early-morning low wind situations. These coherent updrafts, found in both the sodar observations and the simulation, lead to a flux counter to the gradient of the stably stratified valley atmosphere and reach up to the heights of the surrounding ridges. Furthermore, the energy balance in the surface layer during the low wind periods is closed. However, it becomes unclosed after the onset of the valley wind. The partition into the sensible and the latent heat fluxes indicates that missing flux components of sensible heat are the main reason for the unclosed energy balance in the considered situations. This result supports previously published investigations on the energy balance closure.     

Modeling flocculation in a hypertidal estuary

When fine particles are involved, cohesive properties of sediment can result in flocculation and significantly complicate sediment process studies. We combine data from field observations and state-of-the-art modeling to investigate and predict flocculation processes within a hypertidal estuary. The study site is the Welsh Channel located at the entrance of the Dee Estuary in Liverpool Bay. Field data consist of measurements from a fixed site deployment during 12–22 February 2008. Grain size, suspended sediment volume concentration, and current velocity were obtained hourly from moored instruments at 1.5 m above bed. Near-bottom water samples taken every hour from a research vessel are used to convert volume concentrations to mass concentrations for the moored measurements. We use the hydrodynamic model Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System (POLCOMS) coupled with the turbulence model General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM) and a sediment module to obtain three-dimensional distributions of suspended particulate matter (SPM). Flocculation is identified by changes in grain size. Small flocs were found during flood and ebb periods—and correlate with strong currents—due to breakup, while coarse flocs were present during slack waters because of aggregation. A fractal number of 2.4 is found for the study site. Turbulent stresses and particle settling velocities are estimated and are found to be related via an exponential function. The result is a simple semiempirical formulation for the fall velocity of the particles solely depending on turbulent stresses. The formula is implemented in the full three-dimensional model to represent changes in particle size due to flocculation processes. Predictions from the model are in agreement with observations for both settling velocity and SPM. The SPM fortnight variability was reproduced by the model and the concentration peaks are almost in phase with those from field data.     

Multiple scattering ofSH waves in 2-D media with many cavities

The full waveform synthetic seismogram of multiple scatteredSH waves by many cylindrical cavities in two-dimensional homogeneous elastic media is computed. We used the so-called single-layer potential integral representation of the scattered field and a discretization scheme with line source distribution for each cavity. The total field is the sum of the incident wave plus the field radiated from all sources, each multiplied by an unknown complex constant representing its strength. These constants are determined by imposing the appropriate boundary conditions in the least-squares sense. Here we solve scattering problems involving one, two, four, twelve and fifty cavities regularly distributed in a half-space. The seismograms computed along the free-surface show regions where the incident wave is strongly attenuated, as well as the arrivals of all multiple scattered phases. The accuray of the method is estimated from the degree of agreement of our solution for one cavity with the corresponding analytical solution, and also from the magnitude of the residual tractions along the boundaries of two cavities separated at various distances. Finally we apply the method to compute the case of fifty cylindrical cavities, each of radiusa, randomly distributed in a region 80a wide by 30a deep in a half-space. The value of scattering loss is obtained from the amplitude decay of the primary wave with distance for wavelengths in the range from 1.7a to 13.3a, using the synthetic seismogram calculated for the same distribution of 50 cavities as above, but in full-space.     

Interactive effects of environmental variability and human impacts on the long-term dynamics of an Amazonian floodplain lake and a South Atlantic coastal lagoon

Human activities are exposing freshwater ecosystems to a wide range of stressors, whose direct and indirect effects can be alleviated or exacerbated through interactive effects with dynamic environmental drivers. This study used long-term data from two Neotropical lacustrine freshwater systems (Batata Lake, an Amazonian floodplain lake and Imboassica lagoon, an Atlantic coastal lagoon) subjected to different kinds of environmental fluctuations (i.e., flood pulse and sandbar opening) and anthropogenic impacts (i.e., siltation and eutrophication). Our objective was to determine whether the effects of human perturbations are contingent on modifications of important biotic and abiotic characteristics through environmental variability. For both ecosystems, environmental variability consistently interacted with anthropogenic perturbations to alter most of the variables analyzed, such as nutrient dynamics, chlorophyll-a concentration, zooplankton and benthic invertebrate species richness, and temporal community stability, which indicates that interactive effects between environmental variability and anthropogenic perturbations may impact a myriad of ecosystem properties. Furthermore, the nature of these interactive effects was highly dependent on the variable considered and on the ecosystem analyzed. For example, at Imboassica lagoon, sandbar openings interacted synergistically with trophic state to increase the phosphorus concentration in the water column. At Batata Lake, flooding generally alleviated the negative effects of siltation on species richness by both diluting inorganic suspended material concentration and by promoting local recruitment from the regional species pool. Such results indicate that our ability to understand and predict the outcome of anthropogenic impacts on inland aquatic systems can be hampered if we consider human stressors as “static” phenomena disconnected from dynamic interactions with major local environmental drivers.     

Decompression reactions and P–T conditions in high-pressure granulites from Casares-Los Reales units of the Betic-Rif belt (S Spain and N Morocco)

High-pressure granulites are exposed in the Casares-Los Reales group (internal zones of Betic-Rif belt, S Spain–N Morocco) as part of the crustal envelope of Beni Bousera-Ronda Peridotites. They are mostly metapelitic but include intercalations of mafic composition. The metamorphic history is marked by the preservation of early high-pressure assemblages together with secondary low-pressure assemblages suggesting a state of textural and compositional disequilibrium. The P–T path constrained by geothermobarometry and reaction textures from mafic and pelitic lithotypes passes from 800 °C/15 kbar to 600 °C/5 kbar, to indicating a strong decompression related to cooling, followed by a near-isobaric cooling 430 °C and 4 kbar. Such P–T evolution of granulites is thought to reflect some sort of rapid tectonic collapse of crust previously thickened through collision.