联合天气雷达洪水预警系统中的不确定性,可靠度和风险

洪水预报中的不确定性是由作为输入的降水观测和预报的误差所决定的。误差大小受雨量计站网密度（大多与天气雷达联合运用），降水强度和所采用的降水预报方法的影响。在不更颠南部，采用一种经验方法来量化降水观测及预报的不确定性性，数据由两个密集的雨量计站网和天气雷达共同提供。降水不确定性对洪水预报的影响，通过在伦敦附近的泰晤士流域一个综合实验研究进行了检验。此项研究就模型和流域对洪水预报不确定性的相地影响也很     

Internal migration and development transitions in South East Asia

The relationships between migration trends and changes in socioeconomic structures, settlement systems, and regional development programs in developing countries are analyzed. Current and possible future trends in urbanization in Southeast Asia are summarized, with a focus on the effects of migration. The impact of internal migration on spatial distibution in Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines is examined. The need for taking cultural traditions into consideration in the formulation of population policies and programs is emphasized.     

Conflicts between explicit and implicit population distribution policies in Asian development plans

Conflicts between explicit and implicit population distribution policies in Asian development plans are examined. Various implicit policies and their possible consequences for spatial distribution are discussed. The development plans of China and Thailand are analyzed with particular attention to population distribution goals, the principal explicit policies aimed at promoting those goals, and the implicit policies that might conflict with explicit goals.     

Hypoxia and benthic community recovery in Korean coastal waters

Low dissolved oxygen (hypoxia and/or anoxia) has become a major cause of change to the benthic component of ecosystems around the world. We present the response of a benthic community to hypoxia in organically enriched environments in Korean coastal waters. Disturbances due to low dissolved oxygen (DO), and organic enrichment altered community dynamics, result in defaunation during summer hypoxia with delayed recolonization occurring in winter. As DO decreased, the number of taxa, their abundance and biomass of macrofauna dropped significantly at inner bay stations in Chinhae Bay and Youngsan River estuarine bay affected by hypoxia. With the return of normoxic conditions in Chinhae Bay, recolonization was initiated by opportunistic species, with a 1-4months lag. The polychaetes, Sigambra tentaculata, Mesochaetopterus sp., and Lumbrineris longifolia, were most persistent under hypoxia. The first recolonizers were the polychaetes Paraprionospio pinnata, S. tantaculata, Glycinde gurjanovae and Nectoneanthes multignatha and the bivalve Theora fragilis. The second group of colonizers included the polychaetes Capitella capitata, Mesochaetopterus sp. and L. longifolia, and the bivalve Raetellops pulchella. Hypoxic and near anoxic conditions resulted in mass mortality in Chinhae Bay and Youngsan River estuarine bay, but communities did partially recover after return to normoxic conditions despite delayed recolonization.