Are Models Too Simple? Arguments for Increased Parameterization

The idea that models should be as simple as possible is often accepted without question. However, too much simplification and parsimony may degrade a model's utility. Models are often constructed to make predictions; yet, they are commonly parameterized with a focus on calibration, regardless of whether (1) the calibration data can constrain simulated predictions or (2) the number and type of calibration parameters are commensurate with the hydraulic property details on which key predictions may depend. Parameterization estimated through the calibration process is commonly limited by the necessity that the number of calibration parameters be smaller than the number of observations. This limitation largely stems from historical restrictions in calibration and computing capability; we argue here that better methods and computing capabilities are now available and should become more widely used. To make this case, two approaches to model calibration are contrasted: (1) a traditional approach based on a small number of homogeneous parameter zones defined by the modeler a priori and (2) regularized inversion, which includes many more parameters than the traditional approach. We discuss some advantages of regularized inversion, focusing on the increased insight that can be gained from calibration data. We present these issues using reasoning that we believe has a common sense appeal to modelers; knowledge of mathematics is not required to follow our arguments. We present equations in an Appendix, however, to illustrate the fundamental differences between traditional model calibration and a regularized inversion approach.     

Ground water discharge and nitrate flux to the Gulf of Mexico

Ground water samples (37 to 186 m depth) from Baldwin County, Alabama, are used to define the hydrogeology of Gulf coastal aquifers and calculate the subsurface discharge of nutrients to the Gulf of Mexico. The ground water flow and nitrate flux have been determined by linking ground water concentrations to 3H/3He and 4He age dates. The middle aquifer (A2) is an active flow system characterized by postnuclear tritium levels, moderate vertical velocities, and high nitrate concentrations. Ground water discharge could be an unaccounted source for nutrients in the coastal oceans. The aquifers annually discharge 1.1 +/- 0.01 x 10(8) moles of nitrate to the Gulf of Mexico, or 50% and 0.8% of the annual contributions from the Mobile-Alabama River System and the Mississippi River System, respectively. In southern Baldwin County, south of Loxley, increasing reliance on ground water in the deeper A3 aquifer requires accurate estimates of safe ground water withdrawal. This aquifer, partially confined by Pliocene clay above and Pensacola Clay below, is tritium dead and contains elevated 4He concentrations with no nitrate and estimated ground water ages from 100 to 7000 years. The isotopic composition and concentration of natural gas diffusing from the Pensacola Clay into the A3 aquifer aids in defining the deep ground water discharge. The highest 4He and CH4 concentrations are found only in the deepest sample (Gulf State Park), indicating that ground water flow into the Gulf of Mexico suppresses the natural gas plume. Using the shape of the CH4-He plume and the accumulation of 4He rate (2.2 +/- 0.8 microcc/kg/1000 years), we estimate the natural submarine discharge and the replenishment rate for the A3 aquifer.     

Evaluation of volatilization as a natural attenuation pathway for MTBE

Volatilization and diffusion through the unsaturated zone can be an important pathway for natural attenuation remediation of methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) at gasoline spill sites. The significance of this pathway depends primarily on the distribution of immiscible product within the unsaturated zone and the relative magnitude of aqueous-phase advection (ground water recharge) to gaseous-phase diffusion. At a gasoline spill site in Laurel Bay, South Carolina, rates of MTBE volatilization from ground water downgradient from the source are estimated by analyzing the distribution of MTBE in the unsaturated zone above a solute plume. Volatilization rates of MTBE from ground water determined by transport modeling ranged from 0.0020 to 0.0042 g m(-2)/year, depending on the assumed rate of ground water recharge. Although diffusive conditions at the Laurel Bay site are favorable for volatilization, mass loss of MTBE is insignificant over the length (230 m) of the solute plume. Based on this analysis, significant volatilization of MTBE from ground water downgradient from source areas at other sites is not likely. In contrast, model results indicate that volatilization coupled with diffusion to the atmosphere could be a significant mass loss pathway for MTBE in source areas where residual product resides above the capillary zone. Although not documented, mass loss of MTBE at the Laurel Bay site due to volatilization and diffusion to the atmosphere are predicted to be two to three times greater than mass loading of MTBE to ground water due to dissolution and recharge. This result would imply that volatilization in the source zone may be the critical natural attenuation pathway for MTBE at gasoline spill sites, especially when considering capillary zone limitations on volatilization of MTBE from ground water and the relative recalcitrance of MTBE to biodegradation.     

Deterring effects of 8-45 kHz tone pulses on harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) in a large pool

The marine aquaculture industry suffers losses due to pinniped attacks which damage net enclosures and fish stocks. Acoustic harassment devices (AHDs) emit loud sounds which are intended to deter pinnipeds from approaching aquaculture enclosures. At present, many AHDs emit sounds in the 8-20 kHz frequency range. It is not known whether sounds of higher frequencies have a deterrent effect on seals. Therefore five captive harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) were subjected to four series of tone pulses together spanning a broad frequency range (8, 16, 32 and 45 kHz). Pulse duration was 250 ms and pulse interval was 5s. Each of the four sounds was made deterrent by increasing the amplitude. The seals reacted by swimming away from the sounds. The displacement effect of each sound was judged by comparing the animals' surface positions, and number of surfacings, during ten 45 min baseline periods with ten 45 min test periods per frequency (one frequency per day in rotation, 40 sessions in total). The seals were displaced by all four frequencies throughout the 40 trial days. The seals came to the surface more often when the test tones were produced than in the baseline periods. The initial displacement distances did not change over the 40 test days. This suggests that operating AHDs for only short periods will be more effective and less likely to result in habituation by the seals than operating them continuously. The discomfort threshold sound pressure level (SPL) was established for each of the four pulse frequencies. The acoustic discomfort threshold SPL is defined as the boundary SPL between the area that the animals generally occupied during the transmission of the sounds and the area that they generally did not enter during sound transmission. The discomfort threshold SPL may depend on the context.     

对柿竹园矽卡岩成因及其成矿作用的新认识

本文将报导柿竹园Ｗ，Ｓｎ，Ｍｏ，Ｂｉ矿床中矽卡岩矿物－石榴子石和辉石成分和石榴子石中熔融包裹体研究结果，对不同中段的１６块矽卡岩样品（９４％的标本采自第Ⅲ矿带）中的石榴子石和辉石进行了电子探针分析，共获得２３０个测点的数据，此外，还对上述中段大部分样品里的石榴子石和辉石进行了从边部到核心成分测定，共获得１３个样品的９７个测点数据，研究结果表明，绝大多数石榴子石属于含Ａｌｍ＋Ｓｐｓ＋Ｐｙｒ〈１３％（     

离子色谱法测定臭氧化饮用水中的痕量溴酸盐

溴酸盐是饮用水臭氧化反应产生的副产品之一。美国环保机构认为溴酸盐的量应限制在低至μｇ／Ｌ水平。利用本试验开发的离子色谱技术可定量分析此含量范围的溴酸盐，甚至在高含量的阴离子（如氯化物和硫酸盐）共存的情况下也受干扰。