A nonstationary extreme value distribution for analysing the cessation of karst spring discharge

The effects of climate change and population growth in recent decades are leading us to consider their combined and potentially extreme consequences, particularly regarding hydrological processes, which can be modeled using a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Most of the GEV models were based on a stationary assumption for hydrological processes, in contrast to the nonstationary reality due to climate change and human activities. In this paper, we present the nonstationary generalized extreme value (NSGEV) distribution and use it to investigate the risk of Niangziguan Springs discharge decreasing to zero. Rather than assuming the location, scale, and shape parameters to be constant as one might do for a stationary GEV distribution analysis, the NSGEV approach can reflect the dynamic processes by defining the GEV parameters as functions of time. Because most of the GEV model is designed to evaluate maxima (e.g. flooding, represented by positive numbers), and spring discharge cessation is a ?minima’, we deduced an NSGEV model for minima by applying opposite numbers, i.e. negative instead of positive numbers. The results of the model application to Niangziguan Springs showed that the probability of zero discharge at Niangziguan Springs will be 1/80 in 2025, and 1/10 in 2030. After 2025, the rate of decrease in spring discharge will accelerate, and the probability that Niangziguan Springs will cease flowing will dramatically increase. The NSGEV model is a robust method for analysing karst spring discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An analytical solution for deforming twin‐parallel tunnels in an elastic half plane

The interaction between twin‐parallel tunnels affects the tunnelling‐induced ground deformation, which may endanger the nearby structures. In this paper, an analytical solution is presented for problems in determining displacements and stresses around deforming twin‐parallel tunnels in an elastic half plane, on the basis of complex variable theory. As an example, a uniform radial displacement was assumed as the boundary condition for each of the two tunnels. Special attention was paid to the effects of tunnel depth and spacing between the two tunnels on the surface movement to gain deep insight into the effect of the interaction between twin‐parallel tunnels using the proposed analytical approach. It is revealed that the influence of twin tunnel interaction on surface movements diminishes with both the increase of the tunnel depth and the spacing between the two tunnels. The presented analytical solution manifests that, similar to most of the existing numerical results, the principle of superposition can be applied to determine ground deformation of twin‐parallel tunnels with a certain large depth and spacing; otherwise, the interaction effect between the two tunnels should be taken into account for predicting reliable ground movement. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.