The processes and characteristics of mass balance on the Urumqi Glacier No. 1 during 1958–2009

As a solid reservoir, a glacier can regulate regional water resources. The annual net mass balance directly reflects the fluctuation of the glacier and climate variability. Based on 51 years of mass balance observation data, the mass balance of Tianshan Mountains Urumqi Glacier No. 1 experienced a nine times positive balance fluctuation and nine times negative balance fluctuation. There were 35 and 16 negative and positive balance years, respectively. From 1996/97 to 2008/09, 12 consecutive negative balance years were observed at Tianshan Mountains Urumqi Glacier No. 1. These results demonstrate that the Urumqi Glacier No. 1 is experiencing a strong negative balance, and the strongest negative balance, -931 mm w.e. (mm water equivalent), during the observation period occurred in 2008. In addition, the cumulative mass balance reached 13,709 mm w.e. in 2008. However, in 2009, the mass balance was positive at 63 mm w.e. The equilibrium-line altitude changes with the fluctuation in the mass balance, and the effective mass balance gradient is 7.4 mm/m. In this paper, the headwaters of the Urumqi River were analyzed using meteorological data from 1958 to 2009, including the average seasonal temperature and precipitation. The results showed that the main factor associated with the mass balance variation of Glacier No. 1 is the fluctuation in the summer air temperature, followed by changes in the precipitation.     

基于VIC模型与集合卡尔曼滤波的土壤水分同化研究

基于可变下渗能力水文模型(Variable Infiltration Capacity,VIC)和集合卡尔曼滤波(Ensemble Kalman Filter,EnKF)算法发展了一种土壤表层水分的数据同化方案,并在新疆维吾尔自治区的森林、高盖草和低盖草3种植被覆盖类型地区进行试验。在同化过程中,有强降水存在时,3种植被覆盖类型的同化值均比实际测量值高;降水较少时,高盖草和低盖草两种类型的同化值比实际测量值略低,而在森林地区,同化值比实际测量值略高。总体上,该同化方案得到的结果比VIC模拟得到的结果更接近于实际测量值,取得较好同化效果。     

兰州—西宁城镇密集区经济增长空间收敛性研究

应用σ收敛与β收敛方法对兰州—西宁城镇密集区2000—2010年的经济发展状况进行收敛测算。从时间断面把握兰西城镇密集区经济收敛或发散趋势的同时,以人均GDP为指标,以县级行政区为研究单元,采用GIS空间分析技术,对近10年来兰西城镇密集区经济收敛或发散状况进行空间模拟,从时间和空间两个纬度分析兰西城镇密集区经济发展过程。结果表明:①兰西地区整体经济增长自2002后呈现出σ收敛趋势,但收敛速度较为缓慢。局部空间结构相对稳定,收敛较弱。②兰西城镇密集区县域经济发展存在微弱的绝对β收敛,且以每年2%的速度收敛。通过控制人口、城市化水平、人力资本、经济实力等内生变量,收敛性得到明显改善,条件β收敛在缩小兰西地区县域之间的经济发展差距上具有一定稳健性。③以劳均GDP为指标,从截面回归分析结果可判断,2000—2010年,兰西城镇密集区城市间经济同时存在新古典主义和新增长理论的收敛机制。     

Combining AHP with GIS in synthetic evaluation of environmental suitability for living in China's 35 major cities

There are nearly 700 cities in China, each with their own particular characteristics of natural environment quality and rates of economic development. When people are able to choose a city to live in, they will take into account these characteristics in order to improve their lifestyles. Based on geographic information system technology and the analytic hierarchy process method, a model of the living environment suitability index (LESI) for the larger cities of China was designed. The LESI was constructed by using the factors of economic condition, convenience and livable degree, natural environment and natural resources. The LESI model was then applied to compare the living conditions in 35 major cities in China in 2007, including 30 provincial capitals and 5 sub-provincial cities. LESI values were higher for cities in southeast China than for cities in the northwest. The highest LESI values were mainly distributed along the Chinese southeast coast and the Yangtze River Delta. Cities with the lowest LESI values were found in the centre and north of China. Of the 35 cities, 4 had highly suitable living environments and 7 had unsuitable living environments.     

Statistics-based outlier detection for wireless sensor networks

Wireless sensor network (WSN) applications require efficient, accurate and timely data analysis in order to facilitate (near) real-time critical decision-making and situation awareness. Accurate analysis and decision-making relies on the quality of WSN data as well as on the additional information and context. Raw observations collected from sensor nodes, however, may have low data quality and reliability due to limited WSN resources and harsh deployment environments. This article addresses the quality of WSN data focusing on outlier detection. These are defined as observations that do not conform to the expected behaviour of the data. The developed methodology is based on time-series analysis and geostatistics. Experiments with a real data set from the Swiss Alps showed that the developed methodology accurately detected outliers in WSN data taking advantage of their spatial and temporal correlations. It is concluded that the incorporation of tools for outlier detection in WSNs can be based on current statistical methodology. This provides a usable and important tool in a novel scientific field.     

Soil Iodine Determination in Deccan Syneclise,India: Implications for Near Surface Geochemical Hydrocarbon Prospecting

The association of iodine with organic matter in sedimentary basins is well documented. High iodine concentration in soils overlying oil and gas fields and areas with hydrocarbon microseepage has been observed and used as a geochemical exploratory tool for hydrocarbons in a few studies. In this study, we measure iodine concentration in soil samples collected from parts of Deccan Syneclise in the west central India to investigate its potential application as a geochemical indicator for hydrocarbons. The Deccan Syneclise consists of rifted depositional sites with Gondwana–Mesozoic sediments up to 3.5 km concealed under the Deccan Traps and is considered prospective for hydrocarbons. The concentration of iodine in soil samples is determined using ICP-MS and the values range between 1.1 and 19.3 ppm. High iodine values are characteristic of the northern part of the sampled region. The total organic carbon (TOC) content of the soil samples range between 0.1 and 1.3%. The TOC correlates poorly with the soil iodine (r ² < 1), indicating a lack of association of iodine with the surficial organic matter and the possibility of interaction between the seeping hydrocarbons and soil iodine. Further, the distribution pattern of iodine compares well with two surface geochemical indicators: the adsorbed light gaseous hydrocarbons (methane through butane) and the propane-oxidizing bacterial populations in the soil. The integration of geochemical observations show the occurrence of elevated values in the northern part of the study area, which is also coincident with the presence of exposed dyke swarms that probably serve as conduits for hydrocarbon microseepage. The corroboration of iodine with existing geological, geophysical, and geochemical data suggests its efficacy as one of the potential tool in surface geochemical exploration of hydrocarbons. Our study supports Deccan Syneclise to be promising in terms of its hydrocarbon prospects.     

改革开放以来中国农业政策效果的时空计量分析

Since reform and opening up, how much contribution has China’s implementation of new agricultural policy made to agricultural output? This paper is trying to establish an agricultural policy output econometric model for doing a quantitative analysis of China’s new agricultural policy. The results show that China’s agricultural policies on agricultural output have an average contribution rate of about 7% since 1978, which is consistent with the OECD’s basic forecast. There are obvious temporal and spatial differences. Generally speaking, we can divide the contribution of agricultural policy into three periods, which are the start-up phase from 1978 to 1991 (14 years), the stationary phase from 1992 to 2002 (11 years) and the rising phase from 2003 to 2008 (6 years). In space, the contribution of agricultural policy underwent a process from the all-low in the start-up phase, the gradual increase in the stationary phase to the all-high in the rising phase. Northern and western regions are more sensitive to policies. There are three major factors that can affect the contribution of regional agricultural policies, which are the process of national industrialization strategy, terrain and the level of local finance.     

基于脱钩模型的煤炭城市可持续发展动态分析——以徐州市为例

促进经济与环境协调是煤炭城市可持续发展的关键和核心。采用物质流分析、脱钩分析和分解分析等方法,深入分析了1995—2007年徐州市经济增长与资源环境之间的脱钩类型、可持续状态及驱动因素。结果表明:研究期内徐州市DMI和DPO的年均增长率分别为2.74%和0.91%,而GDP年均增长率为12.62%,二者之间呈较为明显的正相关关系,而物质代谢效率的提升又使其发展方式呈现向资源节约型、环境友好型发展模式转型的趋势;资源投入、废物排放与经济增长之间均出现弱脱钩现象,表明徐州经济系统正处于显著的弱可持续发展态势;经济规模扩大和技术效应抑制作用减弱是引起煤炭城市资源环境约束性增强、可持续发展降低的主要驱动因素。     

Determination of Realistic and Statistical Value of the Information Gathered from Exploratory Drilling

Unlike other branches of geosciences, exploratory drilling has not been investigated within the framework of an information system; so, the expression “value of exploratory drilling information” (despite its common usage) is vague. This article presents a model for the evaluation of value of the information gathered from exploratory drilling after studying different mineral exploration and exploratory drilling systems within the framework of an “information system.” Although this model does not present the economic value of information, it is a suitable tool for comparing different drilling patterns. The model was verified on the basis of drilling data for the Gol-Gohar XIIA anomaly.