黑龙江省气候变化趋势对小麦产量的影响

利用黑龙江省1961～2003年逐日气象资料,采用世界粮食研究模型(WOFOST)和气候变化趋势分析的数学方法,分析了气候变化趋势对小麦产量变化趋势的影响.在黑龙江省中部、东部和北部相对湿润的小麦种植区域,辐射量降低趋势是小麦模拟产量降低趋势的主要气候原因;在松嫩平原西南部的齐齐哈尔市、大庆市和哈尔滨市,降水量增加的趋势是小麦模拟产量增加趋势的主要气候原因;在西北部的北安、五大连池、克山和克东4县,辐射量增加趋势是小麦模拟产量增加趋势的主要气候原因;黑龙江省小麦模拟产量变化趋势百分率的平均值为-1.57%/10a.     

渤海海域中郯庐深断裂带的结构模型及新生代运动学

郯庐深断裂带自安徽庐江—山东郯城、沂水、安丘一线向北延伸进入渤海海域被新生代盆地沉积层和海水覆盖。根据区域重、磁力异常图解释的渤海海域的郯庐深断裂带位于莱州湾—渤海东部—辽东湾东部一线,总体走向NNE,对应于渤海海域NNE向地幔隆起带的东部斜坡。渤海海域新生代盆地与地幔隆起呈镜像反映,构成古近纪断陷的边界断层包括NE向、NNE向、NEE向、NW向和NWW向等多个方向,且多表现出铲式正断层的几何学、运动学特征。渤海海域新生代盆地在莱州湾—渤海东部—辽东湾东部发育有由2～4条走向NNE向、陡倾斜的基底走滑断层及相关构造变形组成的右旋走滑构造带,位置与区域重磁资料解释的郯庐深断裂带大致相当。综合深层地壳结构和新生代盆地构造特征有理由认为,渤海海域中新生代盆地中的走向NNE向、陡倾斜的基底走滑断层构造带的与深层至少切割莫霍面的深断裂带构成了一条地壳尺度垂向的强变形构造带。渤海海域的郯庐深断裂带在新生代时期郯庐断裂带并非只发生右旋走滑运动,在区域裂陷作用中控制古近纪断陷的伸展断层可能利用了深断裂带在浅层地壳的部分断层面,并且因为伸展位移在中地壳层中发生拆离滑脱,而深断裂带的右旋走滑位移才使浅层断层与深层断层保持紧密联系。     

辽宁发展燕麦生产的气候适应性研究

根据1960—2000年河北省张北县和辽宁省的气象资料,计算并比较了两地的气候资源条件,参考燕麦的生物学特性,认为辽宁地区的气候条件完全可以满足燕麦的种植。在此基础上,选取了积温、降水等6个农业生长气候指标,利用谱系聚类分析法,对辽宁21个气象站点进行了聚类分析,并结合地理与经济等因素,对其燕麦生产进行了气候区划。结果表明,辽宁的大部分地区适宜燕麦的栽培生产。     

东平湖区域水资源开发利用浅析

本文介绍了东平湖区域概况、功能及特点,分析了东平湖区域水资源现状及存在问题并提出了对东平湖区域水资源可持续开发利用的途径.     

Mesoscale Diagnosis of a Torrential Rainfall Caused by a Tropical Depression

On August 5, 2001, Shanghai was struck by a torrential rainfall due to the passage of a tropical depression (TD). The rainfall intensity has been the strongest in recent 50 years. In this paper, a set of mesoscale re-analyses data and the planetary boundary layer observation from a wind profiler are used to understand the possible mechanism of such a heavy rain. Results show that the outburst of a southerly jet in the lower atmosphere triggered the explosive development of cyclonically vertical vorticity in the region with steep potential temperature surfaces in front of the TD; while the cyclonic vorticity increased notably at higher levels due to the small atmospheric vertical stability of westerly currents in the vicinity of Shanghai. The simultaneous sharp development of cyclonic vorticity at different levels should be the main cause for the torrential rainfall.     

THE EFFECTS OF STATION NETWORK DENSITY ON STATISTICAL ANALYSES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE PRECIPITATION

In this paper, 1416 conventional ground-based meteorological observation stations on the mainland of China were subdivided into groups of differing spatial density. Data from each subgroup were then used to analyze variations in the tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation statistics derived from each subgroup across the mainland of China (excluding Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macao), as well as in two regions (east China and south China) and three provinces (Guangdong, Hainan, and Jiangxi) between 1981 and 2010. The results showed that for the mainland of China, total precipitation, mean annual precipitation, mean daily precipitation, and its spatial distribution were the same regardless of the spatial density of the stations. However, some minor differences were evident with respect to precipitation extremes and their spatial distribution. Overall, there were no significant variations in the TC precipitation statistics calculated from different station density schemes for the mainland of China. The regional and provincial results showed no significant differences in mean daily precipitation, but this was not the case for the maximum daily precipitation and torrential rain frequency. The maximum daily precipitation calculated from the lower-density station data was slightly less than that based on the higher-density station schemes, and this effect should be taken into consideration when interpreting regional climate statistics. The impact of station density on TC precipitation characteristics was more obvious for Hainan than for Guangdong or Jiangxi provinces. In addition, the effects were greater for south China (including Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region, Guangdong, and Hainan provinces) than east China (including Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Fujian, Anhui, and Jiangxi provinces). Furthermore, the analysis proved that the statistical climatic characteristics began to change significantly when the station spacing was between 40 and 50 km, which are close to the mean spacing for all stations across the mainland of China. Moreover, TC areal precipitation parameters, including mean total areal precipitation and mean daily areal precipitation, also began to change significantly when the spacing was between 40 and 50 km, and were completely different when it was between 100 and 200 km.     

中国东部夏季极端降水统计特征及其与El Nio的联系

选取中国东部1961—2012年夏季5—9月无缺测429站逐日降水资料,利用广义帕雷托分布(GPD)拟合,研究中国东部52 a以及El Nio发展年和衰减年极端降水的统计特征,并分析其成因。结果表明:1)中国东部降水阈值呈由东南向西北递减的态势,且基本为线性增加趋势。2)华南地区尺度参数最大,出现极端降水的概率大。黄河以南地区尺度参数变化趋势正值较多,出现极端降水的概率增加。3)El Nio发展年夏季,西太平洋上有气旋环流异常,中国东南部受气旋西侧的异常偏北气流影响,多地阈值偏小,只有福建东南部及黑龙江中西部易发生破纪录的极端降水。4)El Nio衰减年夏季,西太平洋上为异常反气旋环流,中国东南部受反气旋西侧的异常偏南气流影响,多地阈值偏大,广东中东部及皖鄂赣交界处发生洪涝灾害的可能性增大。     

杭州华门清水湾别墅区滑坡研究

通过杭州清水湾别墅区滑坡结构、变形特征及主要控制因素的分析,认为滑坡主要是由于人工不适当开挖边坡造成斜坡地质体临空、雨水渗透诱发土体失稳下滑而形成的,通过计算稳定系数和剩余下滑力,对斜坡稳定性作出评价并提供防治方案。     

云南元-磨公路某高堑坡灾害发生机制及防治对策

论文根据现场地质调查,应用地质力学分析方法,分析了元-磨公路K235 160~600段高堑坡地质条件、病害发生机制和诱发因素。堑坡所在区域位于红河深大断裂与哀牢山深大断裂所夹持的哀牢山褶皱带内,属强烈侵蚀切割的低中山区,河流下切严重,河流阶地不发育。南溪河及其支流小曼萨河、叉河依附于不同时期生成的构造发育而成,堑坡位于小曼萨河注入南溪河的交汇部位小曼萨河的左岸。小曼萨河及南溪河所夹持的山体,尤其是堑坡所在的部位,已严重破碎、松弛,岩石似大块石堆垒状,坡面上的树木均明显地向小曼萨河方向倾倒。经地质力学配套分析,堑坡所依附的山梁形成于红河深大断裂生成期(γ4),堑坡岩体受多期构造活动的作用,其中NW65/°SW64°及NW63/°SW35°两组倾向临空的构造面控制坡体的稳定。堑坡具备发生变形破坏的地质条件,分析认为由于组成坡体的岩土强度不足而引起既有构造面的大型坍塌。连续降雨及温差是诱发因素。基于目前国内边坡防治技术、施工能力,提出了以“治”或“避”为主的防治对策。     

粗颗粒间液桥毛细力演化规律的动态计算方法

水力特性是非饱和土力学理论与工程的重要课题之一,土样水力特性的变化过程本质上可反映为土颗粒间毛细力的演化规律。为此,以粗颗粒为研究对象,将其简化为一对不等径球体颗粒,而其间的水分形态可视为形如圆环的液桥,不考虑颗粒重力和浮力的影响。以Young-Laplace方程为基础,先推得计算液桥毛细力的控制方程组,再结合液桥的无量纲体积最大、最小值及其外曲率半径的割线迭代算法提出求解毛细力的动态计算方法,进而研究毛细力与颗粒间距、颗粒半径比和液桥体积的无量纲关系,结果表明：当颗粒间距一定时,液桥的毛细力随其体积和颗粒半径比增大均呈递增趋势;当液桥体积一定时,其抗拉刚度随颗粒间距增大呈递减趋势。最后,利用已有文献中液桥毛细力与颗粒间距的实测关系,验证了该动态计算方法在表征液桥从形成至断裂时毛细力演化规律的有效性。