碳市场顶层设计路线图

中国正面临着低碳减排和保持经济增速的双重挑战。为利用碳排放权交易机制以最低的社会成本实现减排目标,我国自2013年起开始建设碳排放权交易试点,并于2017年12月起宣布正式启动全国碳市场。然而碳市场的顶层设计不可一蹴而就,需要在我国宏观经济改革的大背景下分阶段逐步推进。短期（2020年前）碳市场建设重在强化产权制度建设,完善市场交易基础。中期（2021—2030年）碳市场建设要形成活跃的市场氛围,充分降低我国的温室气体达峰成本。长期（2031—2050年）碳市场建设要形成稳定上升的碳价趋势,为我国的低碳转型提供长期动力。     

Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation in the Asian–Pacific Monsoon Region Simulated in CAMS-CSM

The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation(BSISO) is simulated by the Climate System Model(CSM) developed at the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS), China Meteorological Administration. Firstly, the results indicate that this new model is able to reasonably simulate the annual cycle and seasonal mean of the precipitation, as well as the vertical shear of large-scale zonal wind in the tropics. The model also reproduces the eastward and northward propagating oscillation signals similar to those found in observations. The simulation of BSISO is generally in agreement with the observations in terms of variance center, periodicity, and propagation, with the exception that the magnitude of BSISO anomalous convections are underestimated during both its eastward propagation along the equator and its northward propagation over the Asian–Pacific summer monsoon region. Our preliminary evaluation of the simulated BSISO by CAMS-CSM suggests that this new model has the capability, to a certain extent, to capture the BSISO features, including its propagation zonally along the equator and meridionally over the Asian monsoon region.     

水平地震作用下无锚固储罐应力与应变响应分析

在考虑地基与储罐相互作用的情况下,采用有限元法对储罐在水平地震荷载作用下的应力及应变反应进行了数值计算。对3×104m3和2×103m3罐壁应力及应变的分析结果表明:环向、轴向应力及应变的分布形式呈现出明显的下部大上部小的特点,在偏底部的位置出现应力和应变的峰值;储液罐在水平地震作用下“象足”变形是由纵向压应力达到屈曲临界应力导致的屈曲破坏,不是强度破坏,即破坏属于失稳破坏而非强度破坏。     

福建省兴化湾有毒重金属的输入输出

基于对兴化湾大气干、湿沉降,沉积物及河(海)水的取样分析数据,主要考虑河流输入及与外海的物质交换,大气干、湿沉降和沉积作用过程重金属物质的迁移量,估算了兴化湾重金属的输入输出量.结果表明,As、Cr、Pb主要来自于河流输入,其河流输入量分别占总输入量的76.4%,78.2%和68.9%,Hg主要来自于河流输入和与外海的物质交换,Cd主要以大气干、湿沉降为输入方式,该方式的输入量占输入总量的78.8%.沉积作用是5种有毒重金属的主要输出方式,占输出总量的88.2%～100%,潮汐作用可将部分As、Cr、Pb输向外海,但也可能将Hg带入兴化湾,兴化湾Cd污染有加剧的趋势.     

黄河下游串沟截堵技术研究

论述了黄河下游串沟截堵的必要性和汛期串沟截堵判别标准.重点分析串沟截堵技术流程,包括前期准备、截堵时机、修筑裹头、减少来流、进占合龙、闭气等所采用的主要技术方法.串沟截堵技术的研究为串沟截堵预案提供了技术支持,并对现场抢险作业具有技术指导作用.     

一种两步抗差估计的设计及其解算

抗差估计的关键是选择适当的权函数和合理的调制因子,针对这两个重要问题,在研究当前调制因子取值方法的基础之上,提出了可动性调制因子这一新概念,并基于可动性调制因子、IGG方案权函数,设计了两步抗差估计。两步抗差估计解决了抗差估计中传统的调制因子、方差因子、初值三者取值时存在的一系列问题,尤其当三者取值不能协调配制时出现的秩亏问题,从而使抗差估计方法更具有实际意义和广泛意义。     

Morphodynamics of an Artificial Cobble Beach in Tianquan Bay,Xiamen, China

By tracking and monitoring the profile configuration, topography, and hydrodynamic factors of an artificial cobble beach in Tianquan Bay, Xiamen, China over three consecutive years after its completion, we analyzed the evolution of its profile configuration and plane morphology, and its storm response characteristics. The evolution of the profile configuration of the artificial cobble beach in Tianquan Bay can be divided into four stages. The beach was unstable during the initial stage after the beach nourishment the profile configuration changed obviously, and an upper concave composite cobble beach formed gradually, which was characterized by a steep upper part and a gentle lower part. In the second stage, the cobble beach approached dynamic equilibrium with minor changes in the profile configuration. At the third stage the beach was in a high-energy state under the influence of Typhoon Meranti, and the response of the artificial cobble beach differed significantly from that of the low-tide terrace sandy beach. Within a short time, there was net onshore transport of cobbles in the cross-shore direction. The beach face was eroded, the beach berm was accumulated, and the slope of the beach was steepened considerably. In the alongshore direction, there was notable transport of cobbles on the beach from east to west along the shore, and the total volume of the beach decreased by 4.5×103 m~3, which accounted for 50% of the total amount of beach volume lost within three years. The fourth stage was the restoration stage after the typhoon, characterized by a little gentler profile slope and the increase in width and the decrease in height of beach berm. Because of the action of waves and the wave-driven longshore current caused by the specific terrain and landform conditions along the coast(e.g., coastal headlands, near-shore artificial structures, and reefs), the coastline of the artificial cobble beach gradually evolved from being essentially parallel to the artificial coast upon completion to a slightly curved parabolic shape, and three distinct erosion hotspots were formed on the west side of the cape and the artificial drainpipe, and the reefs. Generally, the adoption of cobbles for beach nourishment on this macro-tidal coast beach with severe erosion has yielded excellent stability and adaptability.     

贫困村空间分布及影响因素分析——以乌蒙山连片特困区为例

针对目前贫困分布研究以大尺度为主而缺乏对小尺度的关注和致贫因素分析忽略个体效应或背景效应的不足,基于空间贫困视角,以乌蒙山片区为研究区域、贫困村为研究对象,运用空间点模式分析方法探究贫困村空间分布特征,并设计多层线性回归模型从贫困村和县域两个层面综合定量剖析贫困影响因素。研究发现：① 贫困村的空间聚集特征较为明显,总体分布呈现大分散小集中、散点-极核-轴带-团块并存的空间格局。② 贫困村的贫困程度受多层因素的显著影响。其中,村级影响因素为：人口密度、通路率、劳动力比例、遭受自然灾害频次、安全饮用水比例;县级影响因素为：人均地方生产总值、高中阶段毛入学率、植被覆盖率。③ 农村贫困来源于贫困村与县域的双重作用。因此在精准扶贫工作中,政府及相关部门可针对不同尺度对象有针对性地施策,合理配置扶贫资金。     

The carotenoid characteristics of the important wild shrimp Trachysalambria curvirostris(Stimpson,1860) in China

Trachysalambria curvirostris is an economically important shrimp in the coastal waters of the Western Indo-Pacific. However, there is no information about its carotenoid composition and distribution.The carotenoid profiles including concentration, composition, molecular forms(free or esterified) and configuration(geometrical and optical isomers) of raw and dried T. curvirostris(Stimpson, 1860) were qualitatively and quantitatively assessed. In the raw shrimp, astaxanthin and β-carotene were the two dominant carotenoids, which contributed 75.18%–88.86% and 2.86%–16.83% of the total carotenoid content. Traces of echinenone, canthaxanthin and astacene were also detected. The carotenoid content in the waste(80.28 mg/kg dry weight) was nearly two-fold higher than that in the meat(49.69 mg/kg dry weight). Of the total astaxanthin in these shrimp, 85.18%–90.59% was esterified. All-trans astaxanthin was the predominant geometrical isomer followed by 13-cis, 9-cis, di-cis and 15-cis isomers. A mix of three stereoisomers was found in all parts and the percentages of meso(3 S, 3' R) and(3 S, 3' S) forms were significantly higher than the(3 R, 3' R) isomer. Compared to the carotenoid content of the raw shrimp,only 26.17 mg/kg remained in the dried shrimp. Nearly half of the carotenoids were lost during the drying process. Substantial hydrolysis and isomerization also occurred.     

基于F型mtDNA D-Loop的厚壳贻贝(Mytilus coruscus)群体遗传多样性研究

为研究东海区厚壳贻贝(Mytilus coruscus)遗传多样性,以厚壳贻贝F mtDNA D-loop为标记,对浙江省舟山嵊山岛、宁波渔山岛、温州南麂岛、福建省宁德湾和莆田南日岛五个海区的厚壳贻贝群体进行了遗传分析。结果表明,厚壳贻贝各群体的遗传多样性差异不明显,在5个群体中,宁德群体的遗传多样性相对最丰富;将5个群体作为一个整体时,呈现出较高的单倍型多样性和较低的核苷酸多样性。对厚壳贻贝5个群体间的遗传分化系数(Fst)和基因流(Nm)进行检测,结果显示群体间Fst值都很低,但Nm值都很高(Nm绝对值1),表明5个群体间存在丰富的基因交流。但宁德群体与浙江沿海的3个群体(嵊山、渔山、温州)的Fst值相对较高,且差异显著(P0.5),表明宁德群体与这3个群体间出现遗传分化。本研究旨在为海洋经济贝类资源的保护管理提供理论依据。