Magnetostratigraphic correlation of the Oxfordian–Kimmeridgian boundary

A magnetic polarity pattern for Boreal and Sub-Boreal ammonite zones of the Upper Oxfordian to Lower Kimmeridgian was established and confirmed in four British sections, including the proposed Global Boundary Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP) on the Isle of Skye (Scotland) to define the base of the international Kimmeridgian Stage. A coeval pattern for Sub-Mediterranean ammonite zones was compiled from seven sections in Poland, one German section and multi-section composites from France and Spain. The mean paleopole for the European Craton (excluding Spain) at the Oxfordian–Kimmeridgian boundary is 74.2°N, 181.3°E (Α₉₅ = 3.8°). The common magnetic polarity scale enables inter-correlation of ammonite subzones among these three faunal provinces and to the marine magnetic-anomaly M-Sequence. The proposed GSSP at the base of the Pictonia baylei Zone is near the base of an extended interval dominated by reversed polarity, which is interpreted to be Chron M26r. This GSSP level projects to the lower to middle part of the Epipeltoceras bimammatum Subzone, which is the middle subzone of this E. bimammatum Zone in the Sub-Mediterranean standard zonation. In contrast, the traditional placement of the Oxfordian–Kimmeridgian boundary in that Sub-Mediterranean standard zonation (base of Sutneria platynota Zone) is at the base of Chron M25r, or nearly 1 million years younger.     

Magmato-sedimentary Carboniferous to Jurassic evolution of the western Tauern window,Eastern Alps (constraints from U-Pb zircon dating and geochemistry)

New geochronological U-Pb (LA-ICP-MS) zircon data and geochemical analyses from the Variscan orthogneisses and metavolcanic rocks in the western Tauern window are presented and used to reconstruct the pre-Alpine evolution of this area. The late- and post-Variscan stage in the Tauern window was characterised by distinct magmatic pulses accompanied by the formation of volcano-sedimentary basins. The magmatic activity started in the Visean (335.4 ± 1.5 Ma) with the intrusion of a K-rich, durbachitic biotite-granite (protolith of the Ahorn gneiss). Following a period of exhumation and erosion, Westfalian–Stefanian volcanics were deposited (Grierkar meta-rhyodacite: 309.8 ± 1.5 Ma; Venntal meta-rhyolite: 304.0 ± 3.0 Ma). A renewed magmatic pulse occurred in the Early Permian, producing large volumes of tonalites and granodiorites (Tux meta-granodiorite: 292.1 ± 1.9 Ma). The youngest magmatism is characterised by pyroclastic and tuffitic deposits (Pfitsch meta-rhyolite: 280.5 ± 2.6 Ma; Schönach valley meta-andesite: 279.0 ± 4.8 Ma). This volcanism was probably related to crustal extensional faulting within an intra-continental graben and horst setting, asthenospheric upwelling and heat flow increase due to the onset of the Permian rifting. The Permo-Triassic peneplanation and subsidence is documented by shallow marine and evaporitic deposits. Probably in the Middle Jurassic times, the area was flooded and in the Late Jurassic the whole area was covered by limestones, representing post-rift sediments on the southern European continental margin.     

Perennial springs provide information to predict low flows in mountain basins

A new method for estimating low flows in ungauged rivers from minimum discharge of perennial springs is proposed. This spring-based approach (SBA) is tested in 21 catchments from the northern Apennines, Italy. First, the hydrogeological behaviour of each geological formation and superficial deposit is related to the spatial distribution and discharge of perennial springs in a test area using a Bayesian approach, weight of evidence (WoE). Second, the observed river flow exceeded for 95% of the observation period is related to the type of geological formations outcropping within the catchment. Finally, the q95 low flows are estimated from the WoE weights. The SBA performance is assessed by leave-one-out cross-validation and compared with the results of a multiple regression (MR) model that accounts for selected catchment characteristics, but no springs. The results show that the SBA outperforms MR. The better performance of the SBA may be related to its ability to capture bedrock characteristics, which are the main controls of low flows in the study area.     

Using Statistical Downscaling to Quantify the GCM-Related Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change Scenarios： A Case Study of Swedish Precipitation

There are a number of sources of uncertainty in regional climate change scenarios. When statistical downscaling is used to obtain regional climate change scenarios, the uncertainty may originate from the uncertainties in the global climate models used, the skill of the statistical model, and the forcing scenarios applied to the global climate model. The uncertainty associated with global climate models can be evaluated by examining the differences in the predictors and in the downscaled climate change scenarios based on a set of different global climate models. When standardized global climate model simulations such as the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP2） are used, the difference in the downscaled variables mainly reflects differences in the climate models and the natural variability in the simulated climates. It is proposed that the spread of the estimates can be taken as a measure of the uncertainty associated with global climate models. The proposed method is applied to the estimation of global-climate-model-related uncertainty in regional precipitation change scenarios in Sweden. Results from statistical downscaling based on 17 global climate models show that there is an overall increase in annual precipitation all over Sweden although a considerable spread of the changes in the precipitation exists. The general increase can be attributed to the increased large-scale precipitation and the enhanced westerly wind. The estimated uncertainty is nearly independent of region. However, there is a seasonal dependence. The estimates for winter show the highest level of confidence, while the estimates for summer show the least.     

Historical trends in Florida temperature and precipitation

Because of its low topographic relief, unique hydrology, and the large interannual variability of precipitation, Florida is especially vulnerable to climate change. In this paper, we investigate a comprehensive collection of climate metrics to study historical trends in both averages and extremes of precipitation and temperature in the state. The data investigated consist of long‐term records (1892–2008) of precipitation and raw (unadjusted) temperature at 32 stations distributed throughout the state. To evaluate trends in climate metrics, we use an iterative pre‐whitening method, which aims to separate positive autocorrelation from trend present in time series. Results show a general decrease in wet season precipitation, most evident for the month of May and possibly tied to a delayed onset of the wet season. In contrast, there seems to be an increase in the number of wet days during the dry season, especially during November through January. We found that the number of dog days (above 26.7 °C) during the year and during the wet season has increased at many locations. For the post‐1950 period, a widespread decrease in the daily temperature range (DTR) is observed mainly because of increased daily minimum temperature (Tmin). Although we did not attempt to formally attribute these trends to natural versus anthropogenic causes, we find that the urban heat island effect is at least partially responsible for the increase in Tmin and its corresponding decrease in DTR at urbanized stations compared with nearby rural stations. In the future, a formal trend attribution study should be conducted for the region. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A climate change simulation starting from 1935

Due to restrictions in the available computing resources and a lack of suitable observational data, transient climate change experiments with global coupled ocean-atmosphere models have been started from an initial state at equilibrium with the present day forcing. The historical development of greenhouse gas forcing from the onset of industrialization until the present has therefore been neglected. Studies with simplified models have shown that this cold start error leads to a serious underestimation of the anthropogenic global warming. In the present study, a 150-year integration has been carried out with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model starting from the greenhouse gas concentration observed in 1935, i.e., at an early time of industrialization. The model was forced with observed greenhouse gas concentrations up to 1985, and with the equivalent C0₂ concentrations stipulated in Scenario A (Business as Usual) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change from 1985 to 2085. The early starting date alleviates some of the cold start problems. The global mean near surface temperature change in 2085 is about 0.3 K (ca. 10%) higher in the early industrialization experiment than in an integration with the same model and identical Scenario A greenhouse gas forcing, but with a start date in 1985. Comparisons between the experiments with early and late start dates show considerable differences in the amplitude of the regional climate change patterns, particularly for sea level. The early industrialization experiment can be used to obtain a first estimate of the detection time for a greenhouse-gas-induced near-surface temperature signal. Detection time estimates are obtained using globally and zonally averaged data from the experiment and a long control run, as well as principal component time series describing the evolution of the dominant signal and noise modes. The latter approach yields the earliest detection time (in the decade 1990–2000) for the time-evolving near-surface temperature signal. For global-mean temperatures or for temperatures averaged between 45°N and 45°S, the signal detection times are in the decades 2015–2025 and 2005–2015, respectively. The reduction of the cold start error in the early industrialization experiment makes it possible to separate the near-surface temperature signal from the noise about one decade earlier than in the experiment starting in 1985. We stress that these detection times are only valid in the context of the coupled model's internally-generated natural variability, which possibly underestimates low frequency fluctuations and does not incorporate the variance associated with changes in external forcing factors, such as anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, solar variability or volcanic dust.     

A new Late Holocene sea-level record from the Mississippi Delta: evidence for a climate/sea level connection?

A detailed relative sea-level (RSL) record was constructed for the time interval 600–1600 AD, using basal peat to track sea level and containing 16 sea-level index points that capture ～60 cm of RSL rise. The study area is in the Mississippi Delta where the spring tidal range is ～0.47 m, the impact of ocean currents on sea-surface topography is limited, and crustal motions are well constrained. Age control was obtained by AMS ¹⁴C dating and most ages represent weighted means of two subsamples. Sample elevations were determined by combining differential GPS measurements with optical surveying. All index points were plotted as error boxes using 2σ confidence intervals for the ages, plus all vertical errors involved in sampling and surveying, as well as the indicative range of the samples. A striking clustering of sea-level index points between ～1000 and ～1200 AD suggests a possible acceleration in the rate of RSL rise. Removal of the long-term trend (0.60 mm yr^?1) allows for the possibility of a sea-level oscillation with a maximum amplitude of ～55 cm. However, given the size of the error boxes the possibility that oscillations did not occur cannot be entirely ruled out. Comparison of the new RSL record with various proxy climate records suggests that sea level in this area may have responded to hemispheric temperature changes, including the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age. However, given the error margins associated with this reconstruction, it is stressed that this causal mechanism is tentative and requires corroboration by high-resolution sea-level reconstructions elsewhere.     

Parasitic barnacles (Cirripedia: Rhizocephala) from New Zealand off‐shore waters

Nine genera and species of rhizocephalans were recorded from the off‐shore waters around New Zealand. Mitochondrial and nuclear gene sequences were used to examine base differences between the European and New Zealand species of Parthenopea. Serial sections to study the internal structures of the reproductive organs were made for the genera Thylacoplethus and Thompsonia. Two species, Parthenopea australis n. sp. and Thylacoplethus novaezealandiae n. sp. are new to science and described in detail. Parthenopea australis n. sp. is the first rhizocephalan species recorded from the vicinity of active cold seeps. Three rhizocephalans could not be identified as they were parasitised by hyperparasitic cryptoniscine isopods. The decapodhost species comprised the taxa Paguridae, Lithodidae, Galatheidae, Chirostylidae, and Callianassidae.     

Critical Self-Organization of Astrophysical Shocks

There are two distinct regimes of the first-order Fermi acceleration of shocks. The first is a linear (test-particle) regime in which most of the shock energy goes into thermal and bulk motions of the plasma. The second is an efficient regime in which the shock energy goes into accelerated particles. Although the transition region between them is narrow, we identify the factors that drive the system toward a self-organized critical state between those two regimes. Using an analytic solution, we determine this critical state and calculate the spectra and maximum energy of accelerated particles.     

Oxidation of the Kaapvaal lithospheric mantle driven by metasomatism

The oxidation state, reflected in the oxygen fugacity (fO₂), of the subcratonic lithospheric mantle is laterally and vertically heterogeneous. In the garnet stability field, the Kaapvaal lithospheric mantle becomes progressively more reducing with increasing depth from Δlog fO₂ FMQ-2 at 110 km to FMQ-4 at 210 km. Oxidation accompanying metasomatism has obscured this crystal-chemical controlled depth-fO₂ trend in the mantle beneath Kimberley, South Africa. Chondrite normalized REE patterns for garnets, preserve evidence of a range in metasomatic enrichment from mild metasomatism in harzburgites to extensive metasomatism by LREE-enriched fluids and melts with fairly unfractionated LREE/HREE ratios in phlogopite-bearing lherzolites. The metasomatized xenoliths record redox conditions extending up to Δlog fO₂ = FMQ, sufficiently oxidized that magnesite would be the stable host of carbon in the most metasomatized samples. The most oxidized lherzolites, those in or near the carbonate stability field, have the greatest modal abundance of phlogopite and clinopyroxene. Clinopyroxene is modally less abundant or absent in the most reduced peridotite samples. The infiltration of metasomatic fluids/melts into diamondiferous lithospheric mantle beneath the Kaapvaal craton converted reduced, anhydrous harzburgite into variably oxidized phlogopite-bearing lherzolite. Locally, portions of the lithospheric mantle were metasomatized and oxidized to an extent that conversion of diamond into carbonate should have occurred. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.