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521.
Implementation and integrated numerical modeling of a landslide early warning system: a pilot study in Colombia 总被引:3,自引:2,他引:1
Christian Huggel Nikolay Khabarov Michael Obersteiner Juan Manuel Ramírez 《Natural Hazards》2010,52(2):501-518
Landslide early warning systems (EWS) are an important tool to reduce landslide risks, especially where the potential for
structural protection measures is limited. However, design, implementation, and successful operation of a landslide EWS is
complex and has not been achieved in many cases. Critical problems are uncertainties related to landslide triggering conditions,
successful implementation of emergency protocols, and the response of the local population. We describe here the recent implementation
of a landslide EWS for the Combeima valley in Colombia, a region particularly affected by landslide hazards. As in many other
cases, an insufficient basis of data (rainfall, soil measurements, landslide event record) and related uncertainties represent
a difficult complication. To be able to better assess the influence of the different EWS components, we developed a numerical
model that simulates the EWS in a simplified yet integrated way. The results show that the expected landslide-induced losses
depend nearly exponentially on the errors in precipitation measurements. Stochastic optimization furthermore suggests an increasing
adjustment of the rainfall landslide-triggering threshold for an increasing observation error. These modeling studies are
a first step toward a more generic and integrated approach that bears important potential for substantial improvements in
design and operation of a landslide EWS. 相似文献
522.
In the southern part of the Indian Peninsula, there are a number of alkaline plutons of Proterozoic age. In the northern part of the South Indian granulite terrain, the Yelagiri (syenite, pyroxenite) and Sevattur (syenite, pyroxenite, carbonatite) plutons intrude Archaean epidote-hornblende gneisses. Geochemical and isotopic characteristics of the Yelagiri and Sevattur plutons indicate that the syenitic magmas formed from highly differentiated mantle-derived alkali basalts. The Yelagiri and Sevattur syenites are characterized by evolved Sr and Nd isotopic compositions, pronounced enrichment in LILE and large negative Nb anomalies. Trace element and Sr-Nd isotope characteristics of the Yelagiri and Sevattur syenites are similar to those of the subduction-related alkaline rocks. The scarcity of geological evidence for subduction activity at the time of syenite intrusion during Neoproterozoic does not support a link between the alkaline magmatism and subduction. However, our data are consistent with the model of derivation of the Yelagiri and Sevattur syenites from the subcontinental lithospheric mantle, which was previously enriched by slab derived component. The geochemical and isotopic signatures of other mantle-derived intrusive rocks in the northern part of the South Indian granulite terrain with ages ranging from ca. 2.5 Ga to 0.75 Ga also support the above idea. 相似文献
523.
The release of new data constituting the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project—Phase 5 (CMIP5) database is an important event in both climate science and climate services issues. Although users’ eagerness for a fast transition from CMIP3 to CMIP5 is expected, this change implies some challenges for climate information providers. The main reason is that the two sets of experiments were performed in different ways regarding radiative forcing and hence continuity between both datasets is partially lost. The objective of this research is to evaluate a metric that is independent of the amount and the evolution of radiative forcing, hence facilitating comparison between the two sets for surface temperature over eastern North America. The link between CMIP3 and CMIP5 data sets is explored spatially and locally (using the ratio of local to global temperatures) through the use of regional warming patterns, a relationship between the grid-box and the global mean temperature change for a certain time frame. Here, we show that local to global ratios are effective tools in making climate change information between the two sets comparable. As a response to the global mean temperature change, both CMIP experiments show very similar warming patterns, trends, and climate change uncertainty for both winter and summer. Sensitivity of the models to radiative forcing is not assessed. Real inter-model differences remain the largest source of uncertainty when calculating warming patterns as well as spatially-based patterns for the pattern scaling approach. This relationship between the datasets, which may escape users when they are provided with a single radiative forcing pathway, needs to be stressed by climate information providers. 相似文献
524.
M. T. Kayano N. J. Ferreira M. C. V. Ramírez 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》1997,64(3-4):203-213
Summary Daily 200-hPa relative vorticity data have been used to study the dominant patterns related to the cyclonic vortices over the South Atlantic Ocean in the vicinities of northeast Brazil, during the 1980–1989 period. Reference modes were obtained through empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the 200-hPa filtered vorticity anomalies over northeast Brazil, considering all the southern hemisphere (SH) summers within the study period. The amplitude time series of the first reference mode, separately for each SH summer, was correlated with the corresponding filtered vorticity anomalies in a larger area extending from 20°N to 40°S and between 120°W and 20°W. The correlation patterns feature a wave-like structure along eastern South America, with three main centers: the first one, over the South Atlantic off the northeast Brazil coast, is associated with the cyclonic vortices; the second one, over eastern Brazil, represents the corresponding anomalously amplified ridges; and the third one, over southern Brazil/Uruguay, is related to the equatorward incursions of midlatitude upper level troughs. This wave-like pattern is consistent with the vortex formation mechanism suggested in previous works. Another wave-like pattern southwest-northeast oriented is evident over the tropical southeastern Pacific, for some years. The internannual variability of these patterns is discussed in this paper.With 9 Figures 相似文献
525.
Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries Katherine Arrell Gopi K. Basyal Alexander L. Densmore Alexandre Dunant Erin L. Harvey Ganesh K. Jimee Mark E. Kincey Sihan Li Dammar Singh Pujara Ram Shrestha Nick J. Rosser Simon J. Dadson 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2024,49(4):1397-1410
Landslides are one of the most damaging natural hazards and have killed tens of thousands of people around the world over the past decade. Slow-moving landslides, with surface velocities on the order of 10−2–102 m a−1, can damage buildings and infrastructure and be precursors to catastrophic collapses. However, due to their slow rates of deformation and at times subtle geomorphic signatures, they are often overlooked in local and large-scale hazard inventories. Here, we present a remote-sensing workflow to automatically map slow-moving landslides using feature tracking of freely and globally available optical satellite imagery. We evaluate this proof-of-concept workflow through three case studies from different environments: the extensively instrumented Slumgullion landslide in the United States, an unstable lateral moraine in Chilean Patagonia and a high-relief landscape in central Nepal. This workflow is able to delineate known landslides and identify previously unknown areas of hillslope deformation, which we consider as candidate slow-moving landslides. Improved mapping of the spatial distribution, character and surface displacement rates of slow-moving landslides will improve our understanding of their role in the multi-hazard chain and their sensitivity to climatic changes and can direct future detailed localised investigations into their dynamics. 相似文献