Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?

The next generation of climate-driven, disease prediction models will most likely require a mechanistically based, dynamical framework that parameterizes key processes at a variety of locations. Over the next two decades, consensus climate predictions make it possible to produce forecasts for a number of important infectious diseases that are largely independent of the uncertainty of longer-term emissions scenarios. In particular, the role of climate in the modulation of seasonal disease transmission needs to be unravelled from the complex dynamics resulting from the interaction of transmission with herd immunity and intervention measures that depend upon previous burdens of infection. Progress is also needed to solve the mismatch between climate projections and disease projections at the scale of public health interventions. In the time horizon of seasons to years, early warning systems should benefit from current developments on multi-model ensemble climate prediction systems, particularly in areas where high skill levels of climate models coincide with regions where large epidemics take place. A better understanding of the role of climate extremes on infectious diseases is urgently needed.     

Top-down and bottom-up modelling to support low-carbon scenarios: climate policy implications

Bottom-up and top-down models are used to support climate policies, to identify the options required to meet GHG abatement targets and to evaluate their economic impact. Some studies have shown that the GHG mitigation options provided by economic top-down and technological bottom-up models tend to vary. One reason for this is that these models tend to use different baseline scenarios. The bottom-up TIMES_PT and the top-down computable general equilibrium GEM-E3_PT models are examined using a common baseline scenario to calibrate them, and the extend of their different mitigation options and its relevant to domestic policy making are assessed. Three low-carbon scenarios for Portugal until 2050 are generated, each with different GHG reduction targets. Both models suggest close mitigation options and locate the largest mitigation potential to energy supply. However, the models suggest different mitigation options for the end-use sectors: GEM-E3_PT focuses more on energy efficiency, while TIMES_PT relies on decrease carbon intensity due to a shift to electricity. Although a common baseline scenario cannot be ignored, the models’ inherent characteristics are the main factor for the different outcomes, thereby highlighting different mitigation options.

Policy relevance

The relevance of modelling tools used to support the design of domestic climate policies is assessed by evaluating the mitigation options suggested by a bottom-up and a top-down model. The different outcomes of each model are significant for climate policy design since each suggest different mitigation options like end-use energy efficiency and the promotion of low-carbon technologies. Policy makers should carefully select the modelling tool used to support their policies. The specific modelling structures of each model make them more appropriate to address certain policy questions than others. Using both modelling approaches for policy support can therefore bring added value and result in more robust climate policy design. Although the results are specific for Portugal, the insights provided by the analysis of both models can be extended to, and used in the climate policy decisions of, other countries.     

Hurricanes and labor market outcomes: Evidence for Mexico

Hurricanes are becoming frequent events that affect more people every time, and in this context the identification of the effects on the labor market may be important for the policy design of mechanisms to cope more effectively with these shocks. Using hurricanes as exogenous shocks and with microdata from 32 metropolitan areas in Mexico from 2000 to 2011, we analyze the effect on the returns for skill levels, hours worked and jobs with access to social security. Results show that the impact seems to be mostly positive on wages and formal jobs for low educated workers. There is no specific pattern of results for intensity of the hurricanes.     

Perceptions and responses to climate policy risks among California farmers

This paper considers how farmers perceive and respond to climate change policy risks, and suggests that understanding these risk responses is as important as understanding responses to biophysical climate change impacts. Based on a survey of 162 farmers in California, we test three hypotheses regarding climate policy risk: (1) that perceived climate change risks will have a direct impact on farmer's responses to climate policy risks, (2) that previous climate change experiences will influence farmer's climate change perceptions and climate policy risk responses, and (3) that past experiences with environmental policies will more strongly affect a farmer's climate change beliefs, risks, and climate policy risk responses. Using a structural equation model we find support for all three hypotheses and furthermore show that farmers’ negative past policy experiences do not make them less likely to respond to climate policy risks through participation in a government incentive program. We discuss how future research and climate policies can be structured to garner greater agricultural participation. This work highlights that understanding climate policy risk responses and other social, economic and policy perspectives is a vital component of understanding climate change beliefs, risks and behaviors and should be more thoroughly considered in future work.     

Multifractal analysis of the rainfall time distribution on the metropolitan area of Barcelona (Spain)

In most of the studies on scale properties in the rainfall process, multifractal behavior has been investigated without taking into account the different rain generation mechanisms involved. However, it is known that rain processes are related to certain scales, determined by climatological characteristics as well as regional and local meteorological features. One of the implications derived from these correspondences is the possibility that the multifractal parameters of the rainfall could depend on the dominant precipitation generation mechanism. Fractal analysis techniques have been applied in this work to rainfall data recorded in the metropolitan area of Barcelona in the period 1994–2001, as well as to a selection of synoptic rainfall events registered in the same city in the period 1927–1992. The multifractal parameters obtained have been significantly different in each case probably showing the influence of the rain generation mechanisms involved. This influence has been revealed also in the analysis of the effects of seasonality on the multifractal behavior of rainfall in Barcelona.     

Impact of anthropogenic CO 2 on the next glacial cycle

The model of Paillard and Parrenin (Earth Planet Sci Lett 227(3–4):263–271, 2004) has been recently optimized for the last eight glacial cycles, leading to two different relaxation models with model-data correlations between 0.8 and 0.9 (García-Olivares and Herrero (Clim Dyn 1–25, 2012b)). These two models are here used to predict the effect of an anthropogenic CO ₂ pulse on the evolution of atmospheric CO ₂, global ice volume and Antarctic ice cover during the next 300 kyr. The initial atmospheric CO ₂ condition is obtained after a critical data analysis that sets 1300 Gt as the most realistic carbon Ultimate Recoverable Resources (URR), with the help of a global compartmental model to determine the carbon transfer function to the atmosphere. The next 20 kyr will have an abnormally high greenhouse effect which, according to the CO ₂ values, will lengthen the present interglacial by some 25 to 33 kyr. This is because the perturbation of the current interglacial will lead to a delay in the future advance of the ice sheet on the Antarctic shelf, causing that the relative maximum of boreal insolation found 65 kyr after present (AP) will not affect the developing glaciation. Instead, it will be the following insolation peak, about 110 kyr AP, which will find an appropriate climatic state to trigger the next deglaciation.     

The impacts of a plume-rise scheme on earth system modeling: climatological effects of biomass aerosols on the surface temperature and energy budget of South America

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Seasonal forest fires in the Amazon are the largest source of pollutants in South America. The impacts of aerosols due to biomass burning on the temperature...     

CPLat: first operational experimental processing center for SIRGAS in Argentina

The SIRGAS permanent GPS network which is in fact the IGS network densification for the American continent, consists today of more than 200 stations covering the continent and islands. It is currently processed by the IGS RNAAC SIR centre at Deutsches Geodätisches Forschungsinstitut producing weekly free solutions relying on IGS final orbits and EOP that contribute to the ITRF through IGS. By August 2006, the SIRGAS Working Group I had accepted five proposals for experimental processing centers within the region that would collaborate with IGS RNAAC SIR. One of them, Centro de Procesamiento La Plata (CPLat) in Argentina, began processing 60 stations on October 2006. By January 2007 CPLat reached operational capability, delivering weekly free solution SINEX files, with an internal consistency of 1.5 mm average for the horizontal components, and 3 mm in the vertical. Comparisons with IGS global and IGS RNAAC SIR weekly solutions were taken as external consistency indications, showing average RMS residuals of 1.8, 2.4 and 5 mm for the north, east, and vertical component, respectively. Analysis and comparison of adjusted solution time series from CPLat and other processing centers has proved to be highly valuable for solution QC, namely detection and identification of station anomalous behavior or modelling problems. These procedures will ensure the maintenance of the performance specifications for CPLat solutions. Action is being taken in order to guarantee the continuity of this effort beyond the experimental phase.     

The ionosphere: effects,GPS modeling and the benefits for space geodetic techniques

The main goal of this paper is to provide a summary of our current knowledge of the ionosphere as it relates to space geodetic techniques, especially the most informative technology, global navigation satellite systems (GNSS), specifically the fully deployed and operational global positioning system (GPS). As such, the main relevant modeling points are discussed, and the corresponding results of ionospheric monitoring are related, which were mostly computed using GPS data and based on the direct experience of the authors. We address various phenomena such as horizontal and vertical ionospheric morphology in quiet conditions, traveling ionospheric disturbances, solar flares, ionospheric storms and scintillation. Finally, we also tackle the question of how improved knowledge of ionospheric conditions, especially in terms of an accurate understanding of the distribution of free electrons, can improve space geodetic techniques at different levels, such as higher-order ionospheric effects, precise GNSS navigation, single-antenna GNSS orientation and real-time GNSS meteorology.     

Mapping burns and natural reforestation using thematic Mapper data

Remote sensing techniques are specially suitable to detect and to map areas affected by forest fires. In this work, Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) data has been used to study a number of forest fires that occurred in the province of Valencia (Spain) and to monitor the vegetation regeneration over burnt areas.

A reference area (non‐burnt forest) was established to assess the change produced by fire. The radiance in the thermal band (10.4–12.5 μm) and the normalized difference in reflectance between near 1R (0.76–0.90 μm) and middle IR (2.08–2.35 μm) were the most suitable parameters to map burnt areas. This index can also be used for monitoring vegetation regeneration in burnt areas. About a month after the fire, the burns show temperatures of 5–6 °C higher than those found in the reference area, and the vegetation index shows negative values whereas the reference area values remain positive. The differences between the burns and the reference area for the vegetation index decrease with time as vegetation regenerates.