Microsimulation of large-scale evacuations utilizing metrorail transit

Public transit plays an important role in emergency evacuations, particularly for areas where public transit serves as a major commute mode for commuters. Microsimulation techniques provide great flexibility in assessing different scenarios in emergency situations. Combining GIS-based network analysis with microsimulation techniques, this study developed a framework to simulate emergency evacuations using rail transit. Applying the framework to a hypothetical attack on the Pentagon, this study investigated the performance of the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority’s Metrorail for large-scale evacuations. A network-based analysis was performed to estimate the number of riders in association with each metro line and station. Using VISSIM, a multi-mode micro-simulation software package, this study integrated a pedestrian model with a Metrorail transit model to evaluate the performance of the Metrorail in the hypothetical evacuations. The simulation results suggested that if the potential of Metrorail transit is effectively utilized, it could be very useful resource during a large-scale evacuation. This study demonstrated the great potential and flexibility of microsimulation techniques for evaluating complex evacuation scenarios and strategies. The framework and approach used in this study can be applied to analyze other similar situations and help develop effective evacuation plans.     

Use of a soil moisture network for drought monitoring in the Czech Republic

Since 2000, the network of stations that make up the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI) has measured the soil moisture content at the 0- to 0.9-m layer using sensors placed within the natural soil profile under closely cropped grass cover. Using information from 8?years of continuous observation at seven stations throughout the Czech Republic, we verified the usefulness of the Soil Moisture Index (SMI). The SMI is a potentially useful index for calculating the water deficit in the Czech Republic and Central Europe. During this period, a statistically significant decrease in moisture content was detected, and negative SMI values predominated. There were frequent occurrences of flash drought, defined as a very rapid decline in soil moisture during a 3-week period. The CHMI can use SMI values below ?3 in the Integrated Warning Service System. The routine calculation of SMI values can alert agricultural producers to the development of flash drought conditions and provide them with information regarding the effectiveness of recent rainfall events. An increase in soil moisture, in contrast, could serve as a warning sign for hydrology because it creates the preconditions for flooding. The complex study of soil humidity regimes is becoming more significant in connection with current global climatic change warnings in hydrological cycles.     

Cause of scale inconsistencies in DORIS time series

In this paper we analyze the scale of the DORIS (Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite) solutions with respect to DORIS extension of the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF) for Precise Orbit Determination DPOD2014. The main goal is to explain the scale inconsistencies and to find the optimal solution reaching low-biased and consistent scale time series. Our analysis profits from 4 different strategies based only on the Geodetic Observatory Pecný analysis center solution, using DORIS exchange format data 2.2. A difference in the sequence of the solutions directly corresponds to one of the changes in the solution settings: data elevation dependent weighting, application of data validity indicators and application of phase center - reference point correction. We process multi-satellite and single-satellite solutions for the time period 2011.0–2017.0. Our analysis examines scale inconsistency issues in 2011/2012 and in 2015. The scale increment in 2011/2012 is explained as a result of the concurrence of changes in satellite constellation and change in the provider data validity standards for Cryosat-2 and Jason-2 satellites. The scale increment in 2015 is explained as the effect of change in the standards for phase center - reference center corrections for Saral, Jason-2 and Cryosat-2 satellites. Moreover, comparing the solutions with and without elevation dependent data downweighting using the same elevation cutoff (10°), we found a significant reduction of scale bias and scale variation applying the data downweighting. The data downweighting improved also the station positioning repeatability. We demonstrate that the solution, which is completely free from the additional data associated with observations in DORIS exchange format 2.2 and includes the data downweighting law, eventuates in a consistent scale time series with the lowest offset with respect to DPOD2014 (version 1.0) (12.7 ± 2.3 mm for 2011.0–2017.0). The only remaining scale issue is the part of 2011/2012 increment of around 5 mm, explained by a change in the DORIS satellite constellation.     

Thresholds for post-wildfire debris flows: Insights from the Pinal Fire,Arizona, USA

Wildfire significantly alters the hydrologic properties of a burned area, leading to increases in overland flow, erosion, and the potential for runoff-generated debris flows. The initiation of debris flows in recently burned areas is well characterized by rainfall intensity-duration (ID) thresholds. However, there is currently a paucity of data quantifying the rainfall intensities required to trigger post-wildfire debris flows, which limits our understanding of how and why rainfall ID thresholds vary in different climatic and geologic settings. In this study, we monitored debris-flow activity following the Pinal Fire in central Arizona, which differs from both a climatic and hydrogeomorphic perspective from other regions in the western United States where ID thresholds for post-wildfire debris flows are well established, namely the Transverse Ranges of southern California. Since the peak rainfall intensity within a rainstorm may exceed the rainfall intensity required to trigger a debris flow, the development of robust rainfall ID thresholds requires knowledge of the timing of debris flows within rainstorms. Existing post-wildfire debris-flow studies in Arizona only constrain the peak rainfall intensity within debris-flow-producing storms, which may far exceed the intensity that actually triggered the observed debris flow. In this study, we used pressure transducers within five burned drainage basins to constrain the timing of debris flows within rainstorms. Rainfall ID thresholds derived here from triggering rainfall intensities are, on average, 22 mm h⁻¹ lower than ID thresholds derived under the assumption that the triggering intensity is equal to the maximum rainfall intensity recorded during a rainstorm. We then use a hydrologic model to demonstrate that the magnitude of the 15-min rainfall ID threshold at the Pinal Fire site is associated with the rainfall intensity required to exceed a recently proposed dimensionless discharge threshold for debris-flow initiation. Model results further suggest that previously observed differences in regional ID thresholds between Arizona and the San Gabriel Mountains of southern California may be attributed, in large part, to differences in the hydraulic properties of burned soils. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Magma in forearcs: implication for ophiolite generation

Forearc areas (“non-volcanic” arcs) of contemporary island arcs at convergent plate boundaries contain magmatic rocks. Geological evidence, seismic profiles, heat flow data, density considerations and petrological and geochemical arguments suggest that a forearc tholeiitic association (FAT) (containing high-Mg calc-alkaline andesites) is present in “non-volcanic” arcs at some stage of island-arc development. The fractionated, as well as primitive magma, is unable to penetrate low-density sediments and underplates thick piles of unconsolidated accreting rocks. The underplating causes upwelling. The occurrence of magma in forearcs provides an alternative interpretation for the tectonic setting of some ophiolitic masses. Rather than “ocean-ridge formation” and later “obduction” it offers an autochthonous (island-arc bound and geologically-substantiated) interpretation for the ophiolite suite.     

Prevailing-frequency approximation of the coupling ray theory along the SH and SV reference rays in a heterogeneous generally anisotropic medium which is approximately uniaxial

The behaviour of the actual polarization of an electromagnetic wave or elastic S–wave is described by the coupling ray theory, which represents the generalization of both the zero–order isotropic and anisotropic ray theories and provides continuous transition between them. The coupling ray theory is usually applied to anisotropic common reference rays, but it is more accurate if it is applied to reference rays which are closer to the actual wave paths. In a generally anisotropic or bianisotropic medium, the actual wave paths may be approximated by the anisotropic–ray–theory rays if these rays behave reasonably. In an approximately uniaxial (approximately transversely isotropic) anisotropic medium, we can define and trace the SH (ordinary) and SV (extraordinary) reference rays, and use them as reference rays for the prevailing–frequency approximation of the coupling ray theory. In both cases, i.e. for the anisotropic–ray–theory rays or the SH and SV reference rays, we have two sets of reference rays. We thus obtain two arrivals along each reference ray of the first set and have to select the correct one. Analogously, we obtain two arrivals along each reference ray of the second set and have to select the correct one. In this paper, we suggest the way of selecting the correct arrivals. We then demonstrate the accuracy of the resulting prevailing–frequency approximation of the coupling ray theory using elastic S waves along the SH and SV reference rays in four different approximately uniaxial (approximately transversely isotropic) velocity models.     

HST observations of azimuthal asymmetry in Saturn's rings

From 378 Hubble Space Telescope WFPC2 images obtained between 1996-2004, we have measured the detailed nature of azimuthal brightness variations in Saturn's rings. The extensive geometric coverage, high spatial resolution (), and photometric precision of the UBVRI images have enabled us to determine the dependence of the asymmetry amplitude and longitude of minimum brightness on orbital radius, ring elevation, wavelength, solar phase angle, and solar longitude. We explore a suite of dynamical models of self-gravity wakes for two particle size distributions: a single size and a power law distribution spanning a decade in particle radius. From these N-body simulations, we calculate the resultant wake-driven brightness asymmetry for any given illumination and viewing geometry. The models reproduce many of the observed properties of the asymmetry, including the shape and location of the brightness minimum and the trends with ring elevation and solar longitude. They also account for the “tilt effect” in the A and B rings: the change in mean ring brightness with effective ring opening angle, |Beff|. The predicted asymmetry depends sensitively on dynamical ring particle properties such as the coefficient of restitution and internal mass density, and relatively weakly on photometric parameters such as albedo and scattering phase function. The asymmetry is strongest in the A ring, reaching a maximum amplitude A∼25% near a=128,000 km. Here, the observations are well-matched by an internal particle density near 450 kg m⁻³ and a narrow particle size distribution. The B ring shows significant asymmetry (∼5%) in regions of relatively low optical depth (τ∼0.7). In the middle and outer B ring, where τ?1, the asymmetry is much weaker (∼1%), and in the C ring, A<0.5%. The asymmetry diminishes near opposition and at shorter wavelengths, where the albedo of the ring particles is lower and multiple-scattering effects are diminished. The asymmetry amplitude varies strongly with ring elevation angle, reaching a peak near |Beff|=10° in the A ring and at |Beff|=15-20° in the B ring. These trends provide an estimate of the thickness of the self-gravity wakes responsible for the asymmetry. Local radial variations in the amplitude of the asymmetry within both the A and B rings are probably caused by regional differences in the particle size distribution.     

Shear wave crustal velocity model of the Western Bohemian Massif from Love wave phase velocity dispersion

We propose a new quantitative determination of shear wave velocities for distinct geological units in the Bohemian Massif, Czech Republic (Central Europe). The phase velocities of fundamental Love wave modes are measured along two long profiles (~200 km) crossing three major geological units and one rift-like structure of the studied region. We have developed a modified version of the classical multiple filtering technique for the frequency-time analysis and we apply it to two-station phase velocity estimation. Tests of both the analysis and inversion are provided. Seismograms of three Aegean Sea earthquakes are analyzed. One of the two profiles is further divided into four shorter sub-profiles. The long profiles yield smooth dispersion curves; while the curves of the sub-profiles have complicated shapes. Dispersion curve undulations are interpreted as period-dependent apparent velocity anomalies caused both by different backazimuths of surface wave propagation and by surface wave mode coupling. An appropriate backazimuth of propagation is found for each period, and the dispersion curves are corrected for this true propagation direction. Both the curves for the long and short profiles are inverted for a 1D shear wave velocity model of the crust. Subsurface shear wave velocities are found to be around 2.9 km/s for all four studied sub-profiles. Two of the profiles crossing the older Moldanubian and Teplá-Barrandian units are characterized by higher velocities of 3.8 km/s in the upper crust while for the Saxothuringian unit we find the velocity slightly lower, around 3.6 km/s at the same depths. We obtain an indication of a shear wave low velocity zone above Moho in the Moldanubian and Teplá-Barrandian units. The area of the Eger Rift (Teplá-Barrandian–Saxothuringian unit contact) is significantly different from all other three units. Low upper crust velocities suggest sedimentary and volcanic filling of the rift as well as fluid activity causing the earthquake swarms. Higher velocities in the lower crust together with weak or even missing Moho implies the upper mantle updoming.