Sensitivity of Mesoscale Model Forecast During a Satellite Launch to Different Cumulus Parameterization Schemes in MM5

The identification of the model discrepancy and skill is crucial when a forecast is issued. The characterization of the model errors for different cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs) provides more confidence on the model outputs and qualifies which CPSs are to be used for better forecasts. Cases of good/bad skill scores can be isolated and clustered into weather systems to identify the atmospheric structures that cause difficulties to the forecasts. The objective of this work is to study the sensitivity of weather forecast, produced using the PSU-NCAR Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5) during the launch of an Indian satellite on 5th May, 2005, to the way in which convective processes are parameterized in the model. The real-time MM5 simulations were made for providing the weather conditions near the launch station Sriharikota (SHAR). A total of 10 simulations (each of 48 h) for the period 25th April to 04th May, 2005 over the Indian region and surrounding oceans were made using different CPSs. The 24 h and 48 h model predicted wind, temperature and moisture fields for different CPSs, namely the Kuo, Grell, Kain-Fritsch and Betts-Miller, are statistically evaluated by calculating parameters such as mean bias, root-mean-squares error (RMSE), and correlation coefficients by comparison with radiosonde observation. The performance of the different CPSs, in simulating the area of rainfall is evaluated by calculating bias scores (BSs) and equitable threat scores (ETSs). In order to compute BSs and ETSs the model predicted rainfall is compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observed rainfall. It was observed that model simulated wind and temperature fields by all the CPSs are in reasonable agreement with that of radiosonde observation. The RMSE of wind speed, temperature and relative humidity do not show significant differences among the four CPSs. Temperature and relative humidity were overestimated by all the CPSs, while wind speed is underestimated, except in the upper levels. The model predicted moisture fields by all CPSs show substantial disagreement when compared with observation. Grell scheme outperforms the other CPSs in simulating wind speed, temperature and relative humidity, particularly in the upper levels, which implies that representing entrainment/detrainment in the cloud column may not necessarily be a beneficial assumption in tropical atmospheres. It is observed that MM5 overestimates the area of light precipitation, while the area of heavy precipitation is underestimated. The least predictive skill shown by Kuo for light and moderate precipitation asserts that this scheme is more suitable for larger grid scale (>30 km). In the predictive skill for the area of light precipitation the Betts-Miller scheme has a clear edge over the other CPSs. The evaluation of the MM5 model for different CPSs conducted during this study is only for a particular synoptic situation. More detailed studies however, are required to assess the forecast skill of the CPSs for different synoptic situations.     

Estuarine modification of nutrient and sediment exports to the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park from the Daintree and Annan River catchments

Nutrient and suspended sediment concentrations were measured in the dry season and during the rising and falling stages of flood events in the Annan and Daintree rivers to estimate catchment exports. These flood events were also sampled along the salinity gradient in the estuary and nearshore shelf to quantify the modification of terrestrial sediment and nutrient loads as they pass through estuaries into the Great Barrier Reef lagoon. In the Daintree River TSS concentrations were found to increase between the catchment and the estuary plume. The source of TSS may have been scour of the estuarine channel or from land use in the catchment of the lower estuary. In the dry season nitrogen enters the Annan and Daintree estuaries predominantly in the form of PON and DON in roughly equal proportions. Nitrogen exports to the GBR are mostly in the form of DON. In the wet season the majority of nitrogen enters the estuaries as DON and leaves as PON. Nitrogen removal in the estuaries and plumes appears to be biologically mediated once suspended sediment concentrations decrease to a point where phytoplankton growth is not light limited. In the dry season phosphorus enters and leaves the estuaries primarily in organic form. PIP is the dominant form of phosphorus in river water, but leaves the estuary more evenly distributed between all forms. These estuarine processes result in less nitrogen and phosphorus being delivered to the GBR lagoon than is exported from the catchment. The differences between these estuaries highlights the need for further work to explore modifications in estuaries that drain into the Great Barrier Reef lagoon.     

Reflection of equatorial Kelvin waves at eastern ocean boundaries Part I: hypothetical boundaries

A baroclinic shallow-water model is developed to investigate the effect of the orientation of the eastern ocean boundary on the behavior of equatorial Kelvin waves. The model is formulated in a spherical polar coordinate system and includes dissipation and non-linear terms, effects which have not been previously included in analytical approaches to the problem. Both equatorial and middle latitude response are considered given the large latitudinal extent used in the model. Baroclinic equatorial Kelvin waves of intraseasonal, seasonal and annual periods are introduced into the domain as pulses of finite width. Their subsequent reflection, transmission and dissipation are investigated. It is found that dissipation is very important for the transmission of wave energy along the boundary and for reflections from the boundary. The dissipation was found to be dependent not only on the presence of the coastal Kelvin waves in the domain, but also on the period of these coastal waves. In particular the dissipation increases with wave period. It is also shown that the equatorial β-plane approximation can allow an anomalous generation of Rossby waves at higher latitudes. Nonlinearities generally have a small effect on the solutions, within the confines of this model.     

Late- to post-orogenic basins of the Pan-African – Brasiliano collision orogen in southern Africa and southern Brazil

Late- to post-orogenic basins formed on both sides of the Pan-African – Brasiliano orogen when the Congo and Kalahari Cratons collided with the Rio de la Plata Craton during the formation of western Gondwana. Trace fossil evidence and radiometric age dating indicate that deposits on both sides are coeval and span the Cambrian–Precambrian boundary. A peripheral foreland basin, the Nama Basin, developed on the subducting southern African plate. Lower, craton-derived fluviomarine clastics are overlain by marine platform carbonates and deltaic flysch derived in part from the rising subduction complex along the northern (Damara Belt) and western (Gariep Belt) orogenic margins. Rare, thin volcanic ash layers (tuffs and cherts) are present. Upper sediments consist of unconformable red molasse related to collisional orogenesis. Orogenic loading from the north and west led to crustal flexure and the formation of a remnant ocean that drained to the south and closed progressively from north to south. During final collision SE-, E- and NE-verging nappes overrode the active basin margins. Although younger than most of the post-orogenic magmatism, its setting on the cratonic edge of the subducting plate precluded marked volcanism or granitic intrusion, the only exception being the youngest intrusions of the Kuboos-Bremen Suite dated at 521±6 Ma to 491±8 Ma. Two foreland-type basins, perhaps faulted remnants of a much larger NE–SW elongated retroarc foreland basin, are found west of the Dom Feliciano Belt on the edge of the Rio de la Plata Craton in southern Brazil. In the southern Camaqua Basin, basal fluvial deposits are followed by cyclical marine and coarsening-up deltaic deposits with a notable volcanic and volcaniclastic component. This lower deformed succession, comprising mainly red beds, contain stratabound Cu and Pb–Zn deposits and is overlain unconformably by a fluviodeltaic to aeolian succession of sandstones and conglomerates (with minor andesitic volcanics), derived primarily from an eastern orogenic source and showing southerly longitudinal transport. In the northern Itajaí Basin, sediments range from basal fluvial and platform sediments to fining-up submarine fan and turbidite deposits with intercalated acid tuffs. The Brazilian basins had faulted margins off which alluvial fans were shed. They also overlie parts of the Ribeira Belt. Thrust deformation along the orogenic margin bordering the Dom Feliciano Belt was directed westward in the Camaqua and Itajaí basins, but reactivated strike-slip and normal faults are also present. Late- to post-orogenic granitoids and volcanics of the Dom Feliciano Belt, ranging in age from 568±6 Ma to 529±4 Ma, occur in the foreland basins and are geochemically related to some of the synsedimentary volcanics.     

Sedimentary model and high-frequency cyclicity in a Mediterranean, shallow-shelf, temperate-carbonate environment (uppermost Miocene, Agua Amarga Basin, Southern Spain)

Uppermost Tortonian to lower Messinian temperate carbonates crop out in the Agua Amarga Basin (SE Spain). They consist of four units. The lower three units can be tentatively assigned to the lowstand systems tract of a fourth-order sequence, constituting in turn the lowstand (‘megatrough unit’), transgressive (‘breccia unit’) and highstand (‘bedded unit’) stages of a higher-order cycle. All these materials were deposited in a small pull-apart basin related to the sinistral Carboneras strike-slip fault system. The best represented is the bedded unit (up to 25 m thick), which consists of bioclastic, bryozoan/bivalve-dominated calcarenites/calcirudites with abundant fragments of echinoids, barnacles, benthic foraminifers, coralline algae, brachiopods and solitary corals. Facies trends within this unit are roughly arranged in an E-W direction, with the coastline to the north of the basin. The depositional model is that of a gentle ramp with prograding beaches and shoals in its higher parts. Seaward of the shoals was the ‘factory area’, where most organisms lived and maximum carbonate production took place. From this area some of the skeletons were washed landwards by waves and/or currents during storms and incorporated into the shoals and beaches, and others moved downslope along the ramp as mass-flows, accumulating to form the ‘fan-bedded zone’. The factory-area and fan-bedded sediments intercalate five well-defined, thick beds of calcarenites/fine-grained calcirudites. They show bar morphologies (single or amalgamated), or make up sand-waves with very consistent tabular cross-bedding pointing landwards. These beds formed in a very shallow, wave/current-influenced, coastal environment. The bars and sand waves in the fan-bedded zone developed during lowstands, while those located higher up in the ramp interbedded with the factory facies are related to transgressive stages. Prograding beaches, shoals, factory facies and fan-bedded layers developed during the highstands. Net skeletal production occurred mainly during the highstands. Sediment-accretion values of these sediments are similar to those of present and ancient shallow-marine, temperate carbonates considering that the whole bedded unit was deposited in a 100 000-year interval (equivalent to the short eccentricity cycle). The five cycles inside the bedded unit would therefore correspond to the c. 20 000-year precession cycles of the Milankovitch band.     

Application of kriging with external drift to estimate hydraulic conductivity from electrical-resistivity data in unconsolidated deposits near Montalto Uffugo, Italy

In the framework of various studies to characterize the aquifer at the groundwater experimental field near Montalto Uffugo, Italy, the present work estimates the spatial distribution of hydraulic conductivity of the unconsolidated deposits that underlie the area, by applying the geostatistical technique of kriging with external drift to electrical-resistivity and hydraulic-conductivity data. The reliability of the estimation method was tested by implementing a model, based on the method of cells, that simulates groundwater flow, with the estimated values of hydraulic conductivity. The results obtained indicate that the estimation method used has an acceptable degree of reliability.     

Do southern Appalachian Mountain summer stream temperatures respond to removal of understory rhododendron thickets?

Dense understory thickets of the native evergreen shrub Rhododendron maximum expanded initially following elimination of American chestnut by the chestnut blight, and later in response to loss of the eastern hemlock due to hemlock woolly adelgid invasion. Rhododendron thickets often blanket streams and their riparian zones, creating cool, low-light microclimates. To determine the effect of such understory thickets on summer stream temperatures, we removed riparian rhododendron understory on 300 m reaches of two southern Appalachian Mountain headwater streams, while leaving two 300 m reference reaches undisturbed. Overhead canopy was left intact in all four streams, but all streams were selected to have a significant component of dead or dying eastern hemlock in the overstory, creating time-varying canopy gaps throughout the reach. We continuously monitored temperatures upstream, within and downstream of treatment and reference reaches. Temperatures were monitored in all four streams in the summer before treatments were imposed (2014), and for two summers following treatment (2015, 2016). Temperatures varied significantly across and within streams prior to treatment and across years for the reference streams. After rhododendron removal, increases in summer stream temperatures were observed at some locations within the treatment reaches, but these increases did not persist downstream and varied by watershed, sensor, and year. Significant increases in daily maxima in treatment reaches ranged from 0.9 to 2.6°C. Overhead canopy provided enough shade to prevent rhododendron removal from increasing summer temperatures to levels deleterious to native cold-water fauna (average summer temperatures remained below 16°C), and local temperature effects were not persistent.     

Comparative study of sampling methods and in situ and laboratory analysis for shallow-water submarine hydrothermal systems

A primary aim for sampling of submarine hydrothermal vents is to minimize inclusion of ambient seawater. Here, we compare the results of three different sampling methods (air displacement, two-valve bottle, and syringes) for shallow submarine systems. Mixing of hydrothermal fluid with seawater is unavoidable; however, calculations based on linear mixing models allow estimation of the hydrothermal fluid end-member composition. The results show that sampling with a two-valve bottle and syringes are the best options because they allow collection of samples with a large proportion of hydrothermal fluid. Additionally, we compare the results of in situ and laboratory analyses of the fluid samples, and demonstrate that determination of chemical composition in situ is the best option for some components, as re-equilibration affects some component concentrations (i.e. bicarbonate). Conversely, silica determination in situ usually underestimates the concentration in the fluid, as it does not account for polymeric silica. Other components can be measured either in the field or in the laboratory.     

Halite and sylvite as solid inclusions in high-grade metamorphic rocks

Solid inclusions of halite and sylvite, formed during regional and contact metamorphism have been identified by microscopy and by electron microprobe analysis in rocks from Campolungo, Switzerland and Cornone di Blumone, Italy. The solid inclusions occur in several of the major minerals crystallized during metamorphism and have been observed as idiomorphic crystals and dendrites. The compositions measured in 100 analyses from Campolungo, Switzerland and 40 analyses from Cornone di Blumone, Italy extend across the two-phase region in the system, KCl-NaCl, indicating that the salt inclusions are high temperature precipitates. In both localities compositionally zoned and unzoned crystals have been found. Measured compositions on the temperature maximum of the two-phase region indicate at least 500° C which can be compared with 500°±20° C determined by Mercolli (1982) and Walther (1983) from the Mg content of calcites from Campolungo. The solid inclusions have been trapped apart from CO₂-rich and saline, H₂O-rich fluid inclusions which have been described by Mercolli (1982) as the earliest preserved fluid inclusions in the rocks. The early precipitation of salt minerals at Campolungo indicates that fluids were saturated with NaCl and KCl at 500° C and pressures of 2,000 bars or higher. Similar relationships exist between solid and fluid inclusions in the rocks of Cornone di Blumone which formed at temperatures as high as 800° C and pressures between 0.5 and 1 kilobar (Ulmer 1983). The entrapment of halite and sylvite as solid inclusions preserves the composition of the minerals which may therefore be useful as geothermometers.     

Underwater sounds near a fuel receiving facility in western Hong Kong: relevance to dolphins

Western Hong Kong is home to two species of marine mammals: Indo-Pacific humpbacked dolphins (Sousa chinensis) and finless porpoises (Neophocaena phocaenoides). Both are threatened in many parts of their range in southeast Asia [for example, International Biological Research Institute Reports 9 (1997), 41; Asian Marine Biology 14 (1997) 111]. In 1998, when the new Hong Kong International Airport opened in western Hong Kong, small tankers (about 100 m long, cargo capacity about 6300 metric tons) began delivering fuel to the Aviation Fuel Receiving Facility (AFRF) just off Sha Chau Island, north of the airport. Calibrated sound recordings were taken over a 4-day period from a quiet, anchored boat at distances 80-2000 m from aviation fuel delivery activities at the AFRF. From the recordings, 143 sections were selected for analysis. Narrowband spectral densities on the sound pressures were computed, and one-third octave band levels were derived for center frequencies from 10 to 16,000 Hz. Broadband levels, viz. 10-20,000 Hz. were also computed. The results showed that the Sha Chau area is normally noisy underwater, with the lowest broadband levels measured corresponding to those expected during a storm at sea (sea state 6). This background noise is believed to come largely from heavy vessel traffic in the Urmston Road to the north and east of Sha Chau and from vessels in the Pearl River Estuary to the West. The sound levels from the AFRF tankers are comparable to the levels measured from similar- and smaller-sized supply vessels supporting offshore oil exploration. The strongest sounds recorded were from a tanker leaving the AFRF at distance 100 m from the hydrophone, for which the one-third octave band level at 100 Hz was 141 dB re 1 microPa (spectrum level 127 dB re 1 microPa2/Hz) and the 10-20,000 Hz broadband level was 146 dB. At distances of 100 m or more and frequencies above 300 Hz, the one-third octave band levels were less than 130 dB (spectrum level 111 dB re 1 microPa2/Hz) and decreased with increasing frequency and distance. At distances greater than about 500 m, AFRF-associated sounds were negligible, masked by the generally high noise level of the area and attenuated by poor transmission in the very shallow water (<10 m). Because it is believed that humpbacked dolphins and finless porpoises are not very sensitive to sounds below 300 Hz, the Airport Authority Hong Kong (AA) stipulated that dedicated terminal vessels not radiate underwater sounds at spectrum levels greater than 110 dB re 1 microPa2/Hz at frequencies above 300 Hz and distances greater than 300 m. The spectrum levels at 300 Hz and higher frequencies of sounds from the tankers arriving, departing, or off-loading at AFRF were less than 110 dB re 1 microPa2/Hz even at distances of 200 m or less. The AA stipulation was met. However, it is presently unknown whether the generally strong noise levels of western Hong Kong inhibit acoustically based feeding and communication, or result in increased stress or permanent shifts in hearing thresholds.