Poor housing and stroke mortality in population over 64 years old at the parish level,in mainland Portugal

Housing conditions can impact physical and mental health. In 2013, Portugal was still the fourth European Union country with the highest percentage of population without an adequately heated home in winter. Other adverse conditions are, for instance, overcrowding and living in older buildings. Some studies stress the relationship between stroke and poor living conditions in the elderly population, especially cold homes. Univariate and multivariate spatial cluster analysis were used to explore the relationship between excess stroke death risk, from 1998 to 2004, measured by the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for several cohorts (including persons over 64 years old), and poor housing variables from the 2001 census, at the parish level in continental Portugal. A multivariate cluster of parishes, with population without any form of heating their homes as dominant condition, was detected in northwest Portugal. Mean and median SMR values across all cohorts were consistently higher within this cluster. This strengthens the hypothesis that cold homes deserve more attention in stroke prevention and mitigation amongst elderly persons, especially in northwestern continental Portugal.     

Towards a better understanding of the evolution of the flood risk in Mediterranean urban areas: the case of Barcelona

Dam failure constitutes a grave threat to human life. However, there is still a lack of systematic and comprehensive research on the loss of life (L) caused by dam break in China. From the perspective of protecting human life, a new calculation method for L occurred in dam break floods is put forward. Fourteen dam failure cases in China are selected as the basic data by three-dimensional stratified sampling, balancing spatial, vertical elevation and temporal representations, as well as considering various conditions of the dam collapse. The method includes three progressive steps: Firstly, some impact factors of loss of life (IFL) are selected by literature survey, i.e., severity of dam break flood (S _F), population at risk (P _R), understanding of dam break (U _B), warning time (T _W) and evacuation condition (E _C). And the other IFL of weather during dam break (W _B), dam break mode (M _B), water storage (S _W), building vulnerability (V _B), dam break time (T _B) and average distance from affected area to dam (D _D) are also taken into account to get a more comprehensive consideration. According to disaster system and disaster risk, these eleven IFL are divided into four categories. Through the improved entropy method, eight key IFL are further selected out of the eleven. Secondly, four L modules are built based on four categories, which are L-causing factor module (M ₁), L-prone environment module (M ₂), affected body module (M ₃) and rescue condition module (M ₄). Eventually, by using two methods of multivariate nonlinear regression and leave-one-out cross-validation in combination with coupled four modules, the calculation method for L is established. Compared with the results of Graham method and D&M method, the result of the proposed one is much closer to the actual value and performs better in fitting effect and regional applicability. In the application, L calculation and consequence assessment are carried out in the example of Hengjiang reservoir that has already broken down. At the same time, L calculation and risk prediction are used in the analysis of Yunshan reservoir, which is under planning. The proposed method can not only be applied to estimate L and its rate (f _L ) under various types of dam break conditions in China, but also provide a reliable consequence assessment and prediction approach to reduce the risk of L.     

Is there a common pattern of future gas-phase air pollution in Europe under diverse climate change scenarios?

Climate change alone influences future levels of tropospheric ozone and their precursors through modifications of gas-phase chemistry, transport, removal, and natural emissions. The goal of this study is to determine at what extent the modes of variability of gas-phase pollutants respond to different climate change scenarios over Europe. The methodology includes the use of the regional modeling system MM5 (regional climate model version)-CHIMERE for a target domain covering Europe. Two full-transient simulations covering from 1991–2050 under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios driven by ECHO-G global circulation model have been compared. The results indicate that the spatial patterns of variability for tropospheric ozone are similar for both scenarios, but the magnitude of the change signal significantly differs for A2 and B2. The 1991–2050 simulations share common characteristics for their chemical behavior. As observed from the NO₂ and α-pinene modes of variability, our simulations suggest that the enhanced ozone chemical activity is driven by a number of parameters, such as the warming-induced increase in biogenic emissions and, to a lesser extent, by the variation in nitrogen dioxide levels. For gas-phase pollutants, the general increasing trend for ozone found under A2 and B2 forcing is due to a multiplicity of climate factors, such as increased temperature, decreased wet removal associated with an overall decrease of precipitation in southern Europe, increased photolysis of primary and secondary pollutants as a consequence of lower cloudiness and increased biogenic emissions fueled by higher temperatures.     

Interactions of an urban heat island and sea-breeze circulations during winter over the metropolitan area of São Paulo,Brazil

The Town Energy Budget (TEB) model, a detailed urban parameterisation using a generalised canyon geometry, coupled with the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS) is used to simulate the wintertime local circulation in the megacity environment of the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo (MASP) in Brazil. Model simulations are performed using actual topography and land-use fields. Comparison with a simple urban parameterisation based on the LEAF-2 scheme is also shown. Validation is based on comparison between model simulations and observations. Sensitivity tests with TEB reveal an important interaction between the sea breeze and the MASP heat island circulation. Even though topography is known to play an important role in the MASP region’s weather, in these tests the simulations were performed without topography in order to unambiguously identify the interaction between the two local circulations. The urban heat island (UHI) forms a strong convergence zone in the centre of the city and thereby accelerates the sea-breeze front toward the centre of the city. The presence of the urban region increases the sea-breeze front propagation mean speed by about 0.32 m s⁻¹ when compared with the situation of no city. After its arrival in the urban region, the sea-breeze front stalls over the centre of the city for about 2 h. Subsequently, the sea breeze progresses beyond the city when the heat island dissipates. Thereafter, the sea breeze propagates beyond the urban area at a decelerated rate compared to a simulation without an UHI.     

Assessing the EU ETS with a bottom-up,multi-sector model

The European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is the central pillar of the EU response against climate change. This trading mechanism is considered, from the theoretical point of view, as the most cost-effective method to reduce GHG. However, previous studies show that the agents who participate in these markets may behave in a way that may lead to inefficient CO₂ prices, creating doubts about the static and dynamic efficiency of the system. This article analyses these possible anomalies by first trying to model the ETS in a more realistic way, addressing some of the limitations of previous models, and second, by comparing the results with real market transactions. For this, a bottom-up, multi-sector model has been built, which represents the EU ETS in an integrated, cross-sectoral way, paying particular attention to the interactions among the most emissions intensive industries. The results show the benefits of this modelling approach and how it better reflects real market conditions. Some preliminary conclusions regarding the behaviour of the agents in the ETS market are also presented.

POLICY RELEVANCE

Low allowance prices in the EU ETS have put into question the dynamic efficiency of the EU ETS system, prompting various ideas for structural reform. However, determining the right reform also requires estimating correctly how agents will respond to it. This article proposes a tool to realistically simulate the EU ETS under the assumption of rational agents, and compare it to real market outcomes, in order to understand better the behaviour of agents in this carbon market, and therefore how to design better policies.     

New Constraints on Ages of Glasses Proposed as Reference Materials for Fission-Track Dating

New analyses have been performed in order to enhance the data-set on the independent ages of four glasses that have been proposed as reference materials for fission-track dating. The results are as follows. Moldavite - repeated ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age determinations on samples from deposits from Bohemia and Moravia yielded an average of 14.34 ± 0.08 Ma. This datum agrees with other recent determinations and is significantly younger than the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age of 15.21 ± 0.15 Ma determined in the early 1980s. Macusanite (Peru) -four K-Ar ages ranging from 5.44 ± 0.06 to 5.72 ± 0.12 Ma have been published previously. New ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages gave an average of 5.12 ± 0.04 Ma. Plateau fission-track ages determined using the IRMM-540 certified glass and U and Th thin films for neutron fluence measurements agree better with these new ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages than the previously published ages. Roccastrada glass (Italy) - a new ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age, 2.45 ± 0.04 Ma, is consistent with previous determinations. The Quiron obsidian (Argentina) is a recently discovered glass that has been proposed as an additional reference material for its high spontaneous track density (around 100 000 cm^-2). Defects that might produce "spurious" tracks are virtually absent. An independent ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age of 8.77 ± 0.09 Ma was determined and is recommended for this glass. We believe that these materials, which will be distributed upon request to fission-track groups, will be very useful for testing system calibrations and experimental procedures.     

Species composition and diversity of woody communities along an elevational gradient in tropical Dwarf Cloud Forest

Elucidating woody community diversity and structure change along environmental gradients is still a central issue of tropical forest ecology. We have evaluated changes in alpha and beta diversity, community composition and structure of woody communities along an elevational gradient in Dwarf Cloud Forests, Southeast Brazil. We selected five areas along an elevational gradient(1,300-1,600 m asl), and randomly allocated 10 plots(10 m × 20 m) in each area in the Ibitipoca State Park(ISP), Serra da Mantiqueira, southeastern Brazil. All woody species(diameter at breast height ≥ 5.0 cm) were collected for taxonomic identification. Thus, we analysed the woody communities based on a phytosociological approach. Overall, 147 species and 37 families were recorded, distributed in 2,303 individuals. No differences in the species richness pattern were observed between areas using the rarefaction and extrapolation curves. Significant differences in species composition and structure between areas were observed. The high beta diversity observed, corroborated by the Jaccard coefficient, increases with decreasing altitude. Our results showed that woody communities in the studied Dwarf Cloud Forests have a higher diversity and structural variability along elevational gradient.     

Comparison of Fused Glass Beads and Pressed Powder Pellets for the Quantitative Measurement of Al,Fe, Si and Ti in Bauxite by Laser‐Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy

Due to matrix interference and sample particle size effects, some of the most important and difficult issues in laser‐induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) analysis are the calibration and quantitative measurement of a complex matrix. This study proposes the use of borate fusion as an alternative sample preparation procedure for the quantitative measurement of Al, Fe, Si and Ti in bauxite by LIBS. Analytical calibration curves were made using bauxite certified reference materials (CRM), and the precision and accuracy of the methods were evaluated by analysing an additional bauxite CRM, using two different approaches: pressed powder pellets and fused glass beads. The borate fusion method was the most suitable sample preparation technique, since particle size effects and matrix interference could be minimised, obtaining better linearity on the analytical calibration curves (r²), and more accurate and more precise results for bauxite analysis.