Prosperity along Australia's Eastern Seaboard: Sydney and the geopolitics of urban and economic change

Throughout the last decade, the Australian economy has experienced its second longest period of uninterrupted prosperity in recorded history. The paper argues that this prosperity is sourced from an extraordinary surge in finance-based economic activity along Australia's eastern seaboard, especially in the Sydney region. Population growth in the Sydney basin has further fuelled the region's economic growth. The spatialised nature of this prosperity has produced a major shift in distributional outcomes across Australian regions and among households. Sydney-based households, especially those in inner 'global Sydney' neighbourhoods, have had access to high rates of job creation and sustained increases in income and house values. On the other hand, non-metropolitan households away from Sydney--those in regional and rural Australia--have experienced largely negative consequences as historical inter-sectoral and spatial redistribution mechanisms have been dismantled. The paper shows how divergent experiences of the new prosperity have produced an unstable political landscape in regional and rural Australia. It concludes by urging further research into the spatialised nature of economic changes in Australia, especially research that is conscious of distributional flows and outcomes.     

Mapping the functional dimension of vegetation series in the Mediterranean region using multitemporal MODIS data

ABSTRACT

Monitoring the structural and functional dimensions of natural vegetation is a critical issue to ensure effective management of biodiversity. While coarse-resolution satellite image time-series have been used extensively to monitor vegetation physiognomies, their potential to describe plant species composition remains understudied. The objective of this study is to assess the potential of annual time-series of MODIS images to discriminate combinations of plant communities, called “vegetation series,” and characterize their structural and functional dimensions at the landscape scale. Twelve vegetation series were mapped in a 16 574 ha study area in a Mediterranean context located in Corsica (France). First, the structural dimension of vegetation series was examined using a random forest (RF) model calibrated with a reference field map to (i) measure the importance of each MODIS image in discriminating vegetation series; (ii) quantify the influence of the number of dates on model accuracy; and (iii) map the vegetation series with the optimal subset of MODIS images. Second, the functional dimension of vegetation series was analyzed by ordinating three functional indices through principal component analysis. These indices were the annual sum of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), the annual amplitude of NDVI, and the date of maximum NDVI, considered as a proxy for annual primary production, seasonality of carbon fluxes, and vegetation phenology, respectively. Results showed that (i) vegetation series were mapped accurately (median Kappa index 0.70, median overall accuracy 0.76), preferably using images acquired from February to August; (ii) at least 10 MODIS images were required to achieve sufficient accuracy; and (iii) a functional gradient was detected, ranging from high annual net primary production with low seasonality of carbon fluxes and early phenology in Mediterranean vegetation series to low annual net primary production with high seasonality of carbon fluxes and late phenology in alpine vegetation series.     

How cold was it for Neanderthals moving to Central Europe during warm phases of the last glaciation?

Precise estimates of mean annual temperature (MAT) for when Neanderthals occupied Central Europe are critical for understanding the role that climatic and associated environmental factors played in Neanderthal migrations and in their ultimate extinction. Neanderthals were continuously present in the relatively warm regions of southern and Western Europe in the Pleistocene but only temporarily settled Central Europe (CE), presumably because of its colder and less hospitable climate. Here, we present a new approach for more spatially and temporally accurate estimation of palaeotemperatures based on the stable oxygen isotope composition of phosphates extracted from animal teeth found at sites linked directly to concurrent Neanderthal occupation. We provide evidence that Neanderthals migrated along the Odra Valley of CE during warmer periods throughout the Upper Pleistocene. The MATs during these migrations were about 6.8 °C for the warm phase of Oxygen Isotope Stage OIS 5a–d (prior to the OIS4 cold event) at ～115–74,000 yr BP and about 6.3 °C during the early OIS 3 warm phase ～59–41,000 yr BP. Our results show that temperatures during these phases peaked 2–4 °C above longer term estimates from ice cores and pollen records. We argue that our approach can provide valuable insights into evaluating the role of climate in human migration patterns in the Pleistocene.     

Fern species richness and abundance are indicators of climate change on high-elevation islands: evidence from an elevational gradient on Tahiti (French Polynesia)

Coastal sector impacts from sea level rise (SLR) are a key component of the projected economic damages of climate change, a major input to decision-making and design of climate policy. Moreover, the ultimate global costs to coastal resources will depend strongly on adaptation, society’s response to cope with the local impacts. This paper presents a new open-source optimization model to assess global coastal impacts from SLR from the perspective of economic efficiency. The Coastal Impact and Adaptation Model (CIAM) determines the optimal strategy for adaptation at the local level, evaluating over 12,000 coastal segments, as described in the DIVA database (Vafeidis et al. 2006), based on their socioeconomic characteristics and the potential impacts of relative sea level rise and uncertain sea level extremes. A deterministic application of CIAM demonstrates the model’s ability to assess local impacts and direct costs, choose the least-cost adaptation, and estimate global net damages for several climate scenarios that account for both global and local components of SLR (Kopp et al. 2014). CIAM finds that there is large potential for coastal adaptation to reduce the expected impacts of SLR compared to the alternative of no adaptation, lowering global net present costs through 2100 by a factor of seven to less than $1.7 trillion, although this does not include initial transition costs to overcome an under-adapted current state. In addition to producing aggregate estimates, CIAM results can also be interpreted at the local level, where retreat (e.g., relocate inland) is often a more cost-effective adaptation strategy than protect (e.g., construct physical defenses).     

Pore water pressure and stability conditions on a motorway embankment

Prior to the occurrence of a shallow surface slip on a clay embankment a tensiometer system was installed to continuously monitor pore water conditions. It is shown that high pore water pressures can develop in clay embankments after periods of continuous low intensity precipitation. Using stability analyses it is demonstrated that for this first time slide, the clay fill material had a shear strength above residual values and a small but finite cohesion.     

Reconstruction of Channelized Systems Through a Conditioned Reverse Migration Method

Geological heterogeneities directly control underground flow. In channelized sedimentary environments, their determination is often underconstrained: it may be possible to observe the most recent channel path and the abandoned meanders on seismic or satellite images, but smaller-scale structures are generally below image resolution. In this paper, reconstruction of channelized systems is proposed with a stochastic inverse simulation reproducing the reverse migration of the system. Maps of the recent trajectories of the Mississippi river were studied to define appropriate relationships between simulation parameters. Measurements of curvature and migration vectors showed (i) no significant correlation between curvature and migration offset and (ii) correlation trends of downstream and lateral migration offsets versus the curvature at half-meander scale. The proposed reverse migration method uses these trends to build possible paleo-trajectories of the river starting from the last stage of the sequence observed from present-day (satellite or seismic) data. As abandoned meanders provide clues about the paleo-locations of the river, they are integrated time step by time step during the reverse simulation process. We applied the method to a satellite image of a fluvial system. Each of the different resulting geometries of the system honored most of the available observations and presented meandering patterns similar to the observed ones.     

Impact of methane seeps on the local carbon‐isotope record: a case study from a Late Jurassic hemipelagic section

An Oxfordian (Late Jurassic) hemipelagic succession from Beauvoisin (SE France) contains a pronounced, short‐lived negative excursion in the bulk‐carbonate carbon‐isotope record, with an amplitude of 4‰. It was shown previously that the Beauvoisin paleoenvironment was impacted by hydrocarbon seepage. New isotopic data corroborate that methane was a significant constituent of these hydrocarbons. The negative excursion was caused by transient enhanced precipitation of ¹³C‐depleted carbonate, mediated by anaerobic oxidation of methane. Despite its local diagenetic origin, the Beauvoisin excursion is similar in shape and duration to globally recognized negative C‐isotope excursions that have been related to catastrophic, massive dissociation of methane hydrate. Shape and duration of negative excursions therefore cannot be used as an argument when determining their origin if they have not been shown to represent a global perturbation of the carbon cycle.