Conditional probabilistic estimates of 21st century greenhouse gas emissions based on the storylines of the IPCC-SRES scenarios

The conditional probabilistic scenario analysis combines statistical methods of uncertainty analysis at parameter level with storylines which recognize the deep uncertainty that exists for several underlying trends. The model calculations indicate that cumulative 21st century emissions could range from 800 to 2500 GtC in the absence of climate policy. This range originates partly from the underlying storylines, and partly from the probabilistic analysis. Among the most important parameters contributing to the uncertainty range are uncertainty in income growth, population growth, parameters determining energy demand, oil resources and fuel preferences. The contribution of these factors is also scenario-dependent.     

Climate benefits of changing diet

Climate change mitigation policies tend to focus on the energy sector, while the livestock sector receives surprisingly little attention, despite the fact that it accounts for 18% of the greenhouse gas emissions and for 80% of total anthropogenic land use. From a dietary perspective, new insights in the adverse health effects of beef and pork have lead to a revision of meat consumption recommendations. Here, we explored the potential impact of dietary changes on achieving ambitious climate stabilization levels. By using an integrated assessment model, we found a global food transition to less meat, or even a complete switch to plant-based protein food to have a dramatic effect on land use. Up to 2,700 Mha of pasture and 100 Mha of cropland could be abandoned, resulting in a large carbon uptake from regrowing vegetation. Additionally, methane and nitrous oxide emission would be reduced substantially. A global transition to a low meat-diet as recommended for health reasons would reduce the mitigation costs to achieve a 450 ppm CO₂-eq. stabilisation target by about 50% in 2050 compared to the reference case. Dietary changes could therefore not only create substantial benefits for human health and global land use, but can also play an important role in future climate change mitigation policies.     

Spectral properties of simulated impact glasses produced from martian soil analogue JSC Mars-1

To simulate the formation of impact glasses on Mars, an analogue of martian bright soil (altered volcanic soil JSC Mars-1) was melted at relevant oxygen fugacities using a pulsed laser and a resistance furnace. Reduction of Fe³⁺ to Fe²⁺ and in some cases formation of nanophase Fe⁰ in the glasses were documented by Mössbauer spectroscopy and TEM studies. Reflectance spectra for several size fractions of the JSC Mars-1 sample and the glasses were acquired between 0.3 and 25 μm. The glasses produced from the JSC Mars-1 soil show significant spectral variability depending on the method of production and the cooling rate. In general, they are dark and less red in the visible compared to the original JSC Mars-1 soil. Their spectra do not have absorption bands due to bound water and structural OH, have positive spectral slopes in the near-infrared range, and show two broad bands centered near 1.05 and 1.9 μm, typical of glasses rich in ferrous iron. The latter bands and low albedo partly mimic the spectral properties of martian dark regions, and may easily be confused with mafic materials containing olivine and low-Ca pyroxene. Due to their disordered structures and vesicular textures, the glasses show relatively weak absorption features from the visible to the thermal infrared. These weak absorption bands may be masked by the stronger bands of mafic minerals. Positive near-infrared spectral slopes typical of fresh iron-bearing impact or volcanic glasses may be masked either by oxide/dust coatings or by aerosols in the Mars' atmosphere. As a result, impact glasses may be present on the surface of Mars in significant quantities that have been either misidentified as other phases or masked by phases with stronger infrared features. Spectrometers with sufficient spatial resolution and wavelength coverage may detect impact glasses at certain locations, e.g., in the vicinity of fresh impact craters. Such dark materials are usually interpreted as accumulations of mafic volcanic sand, but the possibility of an impact melt origin of such materials also should be considered. In addition, our data suggest that high contents of feldspars or zeolites are not necessary to produce the transparency feature at 12.1 μm typical of martian dust spectra.     

Measurement of the baryonic acoustic oscillation scale in 21 cm intensity fluctuations during the reionization era

It has recently been suggested that the power spectrum of redshifted 21 cm fluctuations could be used to measure the scale of baryonic acoustic oscillations (BAOs) during the reionization era. The resulting measurements are potentially as precise as those offered by the next generation of galaxy redshift surveys at lower redshift. However, unlike galaxy redshift surveys, which in the linear regime are subject to a scale-independent galaxy bias, the growth of ionized regions during reionization is thought to introduce a strongly scale-dependent relationship between the 21 cm and mass power spectra. We use a seminumerical model for reionization to assess the impact of ionized regions on the precision and accuracy with which the BAO scale could be measured using redshifted 21 cm observations. For a model in which reionization is completed at   z ∼ 6  , we find that the constraints on the BAO scale are not systematically biased at   z ≳ 6.5  . In this scenario, and assuming the sensitivity attainable with a low-frequency array comprising 10 times the collecting area of the Murchison Widefield Array, the BAO scale could be measured to within 1.5 per cent in the range  6.5 ≲ z ≲ 7.5  .     

Non-thermal transient sources from rotating black holes

Rotating black holes can power the most extreme non-thermal transient sources. They have a long-duration viscous time-scale of spin-down, and produce non-thermal emissions along their spin-axis, powered by a relativistic capillary effect. We report on the discovery of exponential decay in Burst and Triensient Source Experiment (BATSE) light curves of long gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) by matched filtering, consistent with a viscous time-scale, and identify ultra-high energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) about the Greisen–Zatsepin–Kuzmin (GZK) threshold with linear acceleration of ion contaminants along the black hole spin-axis, consistent with black hole masses and lifetimes of Fanaroff–Riley type II (FR II) active galactic nuclei (AGN). We explain the absence of UHECRs from BL Lac objects due to UHECR emissions preferably at appreciable angles away from the black hole spin-axis. Black hole spin may be the key to unification of GRBs and their host environments, and to AGN and their host galaxies. Our model points to long-duration bursts in radio from long GRBs without supernovae and gravitational waves from all long GRBs.     

The relationship between star formation rate and radio synchrotron luminosity at 0 < z < 2

We probe the relationship between star formation rate (SFR) and radio synchrotron luminosity in galaxies at  0 < z < 2  within the northern Spitzer Wide-area Infrared Extragalactic survey (SWIRE) fields, in order to investigate some of the assumptions that go into calculating the star formation history of the Universe from deep radio observations. We present new 610-MHz Giant Metrewave Radio Telescope (GMRT) observations of the European Large-Area ISO Survey-North 2 (ELAIS-N2) field, and using this data, along with previous GMRT surveys carried out in the ELAIS-N1 (North 1) and Lockman Hole regions, we construct a sample of galaxies which have redshift and SFR information available from the SWIRE survey. We test whether the local relationship between SFR and radio luminosity is applicable to   z = 2  galaxies, and look for evolution in this relationship with both redshift and SFR in order to examine whether the physical processes which lead to synchrotron radiation have remained the same since the peak of star formation in the Universe. We find that the local calibration between radio luminosity and star formation can be successfully applied to radio-selected high-redshift, high-SFR galaxies, although we identify a small number of sources where this may not be the case; these sources show evidence for inaccurate estimations of their SFR, but there may also be some contribution from physical effects such as the recent onset of starburst activity, or suppression of the radio luminosity within these galaxies.     

The changing interstellar medium of massive elliptical galaxies and cosmic evolution of radio galaxies and quasars

The recently discovered apparent dramatic expansion in the effective radii of massive elliptical galaxies from   z ≃ 2  to ≃0.1 has been interpreted in terms of either galaxy mergers or the rapid loss of cold gas due to active galactic nuclei (AGN) feedback. In examining the latter case, we have quantified the extent of the expansion, which is uncertain observationally, in terms of the star formation parameters and time of the expulsion of the cold gas. In either case, the large global decrease in stellar density should translate into a major drop in the interstellar medium density and pressure with cosmic epoch. These cosmological changes are expected to have a major influence on the gas accretion mode, which will shift from 'cold' thin disc accretion at high redshifts towards 'hot' Bondi fed Advection Dominated Accretion Flow (ADAF) accretion at low redshifts. The decline of angular momentum inflow would then lead to a spin down of the black hole, for which we have calculated more precise time-scales; a value of about 0.2 Gyr is typical for a  10⁹ M_⊙  central black hole. These results have implications for the different cosmological evolutionary patterns found for the luminosity functions of powerful and weak radio galaxies.     

The STAGES view of red spirals and dusty red galaxies: mass-dependent quenching of star formation in cluster infall

We investigate the properties of optically passive spirals and dusty red galaxies in the A901/2 cluster complex at redshift ∼0.17 using rest-frame near-ultraviolet–optical spectral energy distributions, 24-μm infrared data and Hubble Space Telescope morphologies from the STAGES data set. The cluster sample is based on COMBO-17 redshifts with an rms precision of  σ _cz ≈ 2000 km s⁻¹  . We find that 'dusty red galaxies' and 'optically passive spirals' in A901/2 are largely the same phenomenon, and that they form stars at a substantial rate, which is only four times lower than that in blue spirals at fixed mass. This star formation is more obscured than in blue galaxies and its optical signatures are weak. They appear predominantly in the stellar mass range of  log  M _*/M_⊙=[10, 11]  where they constitute over half of the star-forming galaxies in the cluster; they are thus a vital ingredient for understanding the overall picture of star formation quenching in clusters. We find that the mean specific star formation rate (SFR) of star-forming galaxies in the cluster is clearly lower than in the field, in contrast to the specific SFR properties of blue galaxies alone, which appear similar in cluster and field. Such a rich red spiral population is best explained if quenching is a slow process and morphological transformation is delayed even more. At  log  M _*/M_⊙ < 10  , such galaxies are rare, suggesting that their quenching is fast and accompanied by morphological change. We note that edge-on spirals play a minor role; despite being dust reddened they form only a small fraction of spirals independent of environment.