Pervasive wetland flooding in the glacial drift prairie of North Dakota (USA)

This article describes a unique flood hazard, produced by the dramatic expansion of wetlands in Nelson County, located within the North American Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota, USA. There has been an unprecedented increase in the number, average size, and permanence of prairie wetlands, and a significant increase in the size of a closed lake (Stump Lake) due to a decade-long wet spell that began in 1993 following a prolonged drying trend. Base-line land cover information from the 1992 USGS National Land Cover Characterization dataset, and a Landsat TM scene acquired 9 July 2001 are used to assess the growth of the closed lake and wetland pond surface areas, and to analyze the type and area of various land cover classes inundated between 1992 and 2001. The open water profile in Nelson County changed from one marked by relatively comparable coverage of closed lake and wetland pond areas in 1992, to one in which wetland open water accounted for the vast majority of total open water in 2001. The bulk of the wetland pond area expansion occurred by displacing existing wetland vegetation and agricultural cropland. Producers responded to the flood hazard by filing Federal Crop Insurance Corporation (FCIC) claims and enrolling cropland in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), a federal land retirement program. Land taken out of agricultural production has had an enormous impact upon the agricultural sector that forms the economic base of the rural economy. In 2001 the land taken out of production due to CRP enrollment and preventive planting claims represented nearly 42% of Nelson County’s 205.2 K ha base agricultural land. The patterns obtained from this detailed study of Nelson County are likely to be the representative of the more publicized flood disaster occurring within the Devils Lake Basin of North Dakota.     

Jupiter: New retrieved thermal profiles and ammonia distributions

New thermal profiles of Jupiter are retrieved from recent far infrared spectral measurements and for H₂ mixing ratios varying from 0.8 to 0.94. The effective temperature corresponding to the inferred thermal profile is 123.15 ± 0.35°K. Far-infrared brightness temperature spectra computed from these profiles are compared to experimental data including measurements made at high spectral resolution in the NH₃ν₂ band at 10 μm and in NH₃ pure rotational bands between 40 and 110 μm. It is found that a strong depletion of NH₃ does occur in the Jovian stratosphere and that ammonia seems to be undersaturated in the upper troposphere.     

The changing interstellar medium of massive elliptical galaxies and cosmic evolution of radio galaxies and quasars

The recently discovered apparent dramatic expansion in the effective radii of massive elliptical galaxies from   z ≃ 2  to ≃0.1 has been interpreted in terms of either galaxy mergers or the rapid loss of cold gas due to active galactic nuclei (AGN) feedback. In examining the latter case, we have quantified the extent of the expansion, which is uncertain observationally, in terms of the star formation parameters and time of the expulsion of the cold gas. In either case, the large global decrease in stellar density should translate into a major drop in the interstellar medium density and pressure with cosmic epoch. These cosmological changes are expected to have a major influence on the gas accretion mode, which will shift from 'cold' thin disc accretion at high redshifts towards 'hot' Bondi fed Advection Dominated Accretion Flow (ADAF) accretion at low redshifts. The decline of angular momentum inflow would then lead to a spin down of the black hole, for which we have calculated more precise time-scales; a value of about 0.2 Gyr is typical for a  10⁹ M_⊙  central black hole. These results have implications for the different cosmological evolutionary patterns found for the luminosity functions of powerful and weak radio galaxies.     

Spatial and temporal variability and drivers of net ecosystem metabolism in western Gulf of Mexico estuaries

Net ecosystem metabolism (NEM) is becoming a commonly used ecological indicator of estuarine ecosystem metabolic rates. Estuarine ecosystem processes are spatially and temporally variable, but the corresponding variability in NEM has not been properly assessed. Spatial and temporal variability in NEM was assessed in four western Gulf of Mexico shallow water estuaries. NEM was calculated from high-frequency dissolved oxygen measurements. Interbay, intrabay, and water column spatial scales were assessed for NEM, gross primary production (GPP), and respiration (R) rate variability. Seasonal, monthly, and daily temporal scales in NEM, GPP, and R were also assessed. Environmental conditions were then compared to NEM to determine which factors were correlated with each temporal and spatial scale. There was significant NEM spatial variability on interbay, intrabay, and water column spatial scales. Significant spatial variability was ephemeral, so it was difficult to ascertain which environmental conditions were most influential at each spatial scale. Significant temporal variability in NEM on seasonal, monthly, and daily scales was found and it was correlated to temperature, salinity, and freshwater inflow, respectively. NEM correlated strongly with dissolved oxygen, temperature, and salinity, but the relationships where different in each bay. The dynamics of NEM on daily scales indicate that freshwater inflow events may be the main driver of NEM in the semiarid estuaries studied. The variable nature of NEM found here is further evidence that it is not valid to use single station monitoring deployments for assessment of whole estuarine ecosystem metabolic rates in large ecosystems. The relationship between NEM and temperature, salinity, and freshwater inflow events could drive predictive models assessing the potential influence of projected climate change and watershed development scenarios on estuarine metabolic rates.     

Regional Energy Demand Responses To Climate Change: Methodology And Application To The Commonwealth Of Massachusetts

Climate is a major determinant of energy demand. Changes in climate may alter energy demand as well as energy demand patterns. This study investigates the implications of climate change for energy demand under the hypothesis that impacts are scale dependent due to region-specific climatic variables, infrastructure, socioeconomic, and energy use profiles. In this analysis we explore regional energy demand responses to climate change by assessing temperature-sensitive energy demand in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. The study employs a two-step estimation and modeling procedure. The first step evaluates the historic temperature sensitivity of residential and commercial demand for electricity and heating fuels, using a degree-day methodology. We find that when controlling for socioeconomic factors, degree-day variables have significant explanatory power in describing historic changes in residential and commercial energy demands. In the second step, we assess potential future energy demand responses to scenarios of climate change. Model results are based on alternative climate scenarios that were specifically derived for the region on the basis of local climatological data, coupled with regional information from available global climate models. We find notable changes with respect to overall energy consumption by, and energy mix of the residential and commercial sectors in the region. On the basis of our findings, we identify several methodological issues relevant to the development of climate change impact assessments of energy demand.     

A catalogue of seismicity in Greece and adjacent areas

Summary. A new earthquake catalogue for Greece has been formed to cover the instrumental period 1901–78, in particular 605 earthquakes for the period 1917–63 inclusive are relocated using first arrival data from the International Seismological Summary. These relocations incorporate macro-seismically and other well-controlled master events into an ensuing joint epicentre determination technique. The largest annual average shift is 165 km for 78 earthquakes during the decade after 1917, decreasing to 17 km for the later years 1957–63. Magnitudes are redetermined mainly using readings from the Swedish network and Uppsala since as early as 1908. Catalogue completeness exists for magnitudes around 5.5 for at least the last 60 years, but magnitudes of about 4.7 are completely reported only during the most recent 15 years.
The new epicentral positions lead to a better delineation of the seismic zones than has previously been achieved. The majority of shallow earthquakes are contained in a belt parallel to the Hellenic Arc which extends north into Albania, in the south-east the epicentral locations give a more diffuse extension of this zone into the west coast of Turkey. Depths of intermediate earthquakes along the Hellenic Arc tend to relocate to shallower depths, in the south-west part of Crete no earthquake focus deeper than 100 km is found, although in the south-eastern section of the arc a tendency to increased depths is observed. A second zone starts at Leukas Island in the west and extends through central Greece to near Volos on the east coast, where it divides into two branches, which are less well defined, but which eventually join the seismicity of western Turkey. A third zone follows the Saronikos and Corinth gulfs.     

Secondary‐volatiles linked metallic iron in eucrites: The dual‐origin metals of Camel Donga

The unique occurrence of abundant (~1 vol%) near‐pure‐Fe metal in the Camel Donga eucrite is more complicated than previously believed. In addition to that component of groundmass metal, scattered within the meteorite are discrete nodules of much higher kamacite abundance. We have studied the petrology and composition of two of these nodules in the form of samples we call CD2 and CD3. The nodules are ovoids 11 (CD2) to 15 (CD3) mm across, with metal, or inferred preweathering metal, abundances of 12–17 vol% (CD2 is unfortunately quite weathered). The CD3 nodule also includes at its center a 5 mm ovoid clumping (6 vol%) of F‐apatite. Both nodules are fine‐grained, so the high Fe metal and apatite contents are clearly not flukes of inadequate sampling. The metals within the nodules are distinctly Ni‐rich (0.3–0.6 wt%) compared to the pure‐Fe (Ni generally 0.01 wt%) groundmass metals. Bulk analyses of three pieces of the CD2 nodule show that trace siderophile elements Ir, Os, and Co are commensurately enriched; Au is enriched to a lesser degree. The siderophile evidence shows the nodules did not form by in situ reduction of pyroxene FeO. Moreover, the nodules do not show features such as silica‐phase enrichment or pyroxene with reduced FeO (as constrained by FeO/MgO and especially FeO/MnO) predicted by the in situ reduction model. The oxide minerals, even in groundmass samples well away from the nodules, also show little evidence of reduction. Although the nodule boundaries are generally sharp, groundmass‐metal Ni content is anti‐correlated with distance from the CD3 nodule. We infer that the nodules represent materials that originated within impactors into the Camel Donga portion of the eucrite crust, but probably were profoundly altered during later metamorphism/metasomatism. Origin of the pure‐Fe groundmass metal remains enigmatic. In situ reduction probably played an important role, and association in the same meteorite of the Fe‐nodules is probably significant. But the fluid during alteration was probably not (as previously modeled) purely S and O, of simple heat‐driven internal derivation. We conjecture a two‐stage metasomatism, as fluids passed through Camel Donga after impact heating of volatile‐rich chondritic masses (survivors of gentle accretionary impacts) within the nearby crust. First, reduction to form troilite may have been triggered by fluids rich in S₂ and CO (derived from the protonodules?), and then in a distinct later stage, fluids were (comparatively) H₂O‐rich, and thus reacted with troilite to form pure‐Fe metal along with H₂S and SO₂. The early eucrite crust was in places a dynamic fluid‐bearing environment that hosted complex chemical processes, including some that engendered significant diversity among metal+sulfide alterations.     

A topical evaluation and discussion of data movement technologies for data-intensive scientific applications

Transferring large volumes of information from one location to potentially many others that are geographically distributed and across varying networks is still prevalent in modern scientific data systems. This is despite the movement to push computation to the data and to reduce data movement needed to compute answers to challenging scientific problems, to disseminate information to the scientific community, and to acquire data for curation and enrichment. Because of this, it is imperative that decisions made regarding data movement systems and architectures be backed by both analytical rigor, and also by empirical evidence and measurement. The purpose of this study is to expand on the work performed by our research team over the last decade and to take a fresh look at the evaluation of multiple topical data transfer technologies in use cases derived from data-intensive scientific systems and applications in the areas of Earth science. We report on the evaluation of a set of data movement technologies against a set of empirically derived comparison dimensions. Based on this evaluation, we make recommendations towards the selection of appropriate data movement technologies in scientific applications and scenarios.     

Achieving additional emission reductions under a cap-and-trade scheme

Over the last decade, cap-and-trade emissions schemes have emerged as one of the favoured policy instruments for reducing GHG emissions. An inherent design feature of cap-and-trade schemes is that, once the cap on emissions has been set, no additional reductions beyond this level can be provided by the actions of those individuals, organizations and governments within the covered sectors. Thus, the emissions cap constitutes an emissions floor. This feature has been claimed by some to have undesirable implications, in that it discourages ethically motivated mitigation actions and preempts the possibility that local, state and national governments can take additional mitigation action in the context of weak national or regional targets. These criticisms have become prominent in Australia and the US within the public debate regarding the adoption of an emissions trading scheme (ETS). These criticisms and their potential solutions are reviewed. A set-aside reserve is proposed to automatically retire ETS permits, which would correspond to verified and additional emissions reductions. This minimizes the possibility that ethically motivated mitigation actions are discouraged, allows for additional action by other levels of government, while providing transparency to other market participants on the level of permit retirements.