Multi-risk governance for natural hazards in Naples and Guadeloupe

Technical and institutional capacities are strongly related and must be jointly developed to guarantee effective natural risk governance. Indeed, the available technical solutions and decision support tools influence the development of institutional frameworks and disaster policies. This paper analyses technical and institutional capacities, by providing a comparative evaluation of governance systems in Italy and France. The focus is on two case studies: Naples and Guadeloupe. Both areas are exposed to multiple hazards, including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, floods, tsunamis, fires, cyclones, and marine inundations Cascade and conjoint effects such as seismic swarms triggered by volcanic activity have also been taken into account. The research design is based on a documentary analysis of laws and policy documents informed by semi-structured interviews and focus groups with stakeholders at the local level. This leads to the identification of three sets of governance characteristics that cover the key issues of: (1) stakeholders and governance level; (2) decision support tools and mitigation measures; and (3) stakeholder cooperation and communication. The results provide an overview of the similarities and differences as well as the strengths and weaknesses of the governance systems across risks. Both case studies have developed adequate decision support tools for most of the hazards of concern. Warning systems, and the assessment of hazards and exposure are the main strengths. While technical/scientific capacities are very well developed, the main weaknesses involve the interagency communication and cooperation, and the use and dissemination of scientific knowledge when developing policies and practices. The consequences for multi-risk governance are outlined in the discussion.     

Polyphase thrusting and dyke emplacement in the central Southern Alps (Northern Italy)

The Triassic succession of the central Southern Alps (Italy) is stacked into several units bounded by south-verging low-angle thrust faults, which are related to two successive steps of crustal shortening. The thrust surfaces are cut by high-angle extensional and strike-slip faults, which controlled the emplacement of hypabissal magmatic intrusions that post-date thrusts motions. Intrusion ages based on SHRIMP U–Pb zircon dating span between 42 ± 1 and 39 ± 1 Ma, suggesting close time relationships with the earliest Adamello intrusion stages and, more in general, with the widespread calc-alkaline magmatism described in the Southern Alps. Fission-track ages of magmatic apatites are indistinguishable from U–Pb crystallization ages of zircons, suggesting that the intrusion occurred in country rocks already exhumed above the partial annealing zone of apatite (depth < 2–4 km). These data indicate that the central Southern Alps were already structured and largely exhumed in the Middle Eocene. Although we describe minor faults affecting magmatic bodies and local reactivations of older structures, no major internal deformations have occurred in the area after the Bartonian. Neogene deformations were instead concentrated farther south, along the frontal part of the belt.     

Comparing models of debris-flow susceptibility in the alpine environment

Debris-flows are widespread in Val di Fassa (Trento Province, Eastern Italian Alps) where they constitute one of the most dangerous gravity-induced surface processes. From a large set of environmental characteristics and a detailed inventory of debris flows, we developed five models to predict location of debris-flow source areas. The models differ in approach (statistical vs. physically-based) and type of terrain unit of reference (slope unit vs. grid cell). In the statistical models, a mix of several environmental factors classified areas with different debris-flow susceptibility; however, the factors that exert a strong discriminant power reduce to conditions of high slope-gradient, pasture or no vegetation cover, availability of detrital material, and active erosional processes. Since slope and land use are also used in the physically-based approach, all model results are largely controlled by the same leading variables.Overlaying susceptibility maps produced by the different methods (statistical vs. physically-based) for the same terrain unit of reference (grid cell) reveals a large difference, nearly 25% spatial mismatch. The spatial discrepancy exceeds 30% for susceptibility maps generated by the same method (discriminant analysis) but different terrain units (slope unit vs. grid cell). The size of the terrain unit also led to different susceptibility maps (almost 20% spatial mismatch). Maps based on different statistical tools (discriminant analysis vs. logistic regression) differed least (less than 10%). Hence, method and terrain unit proved to be equally important in mapping susceptibility.Model performance was evaluated from the percentages of terrain units that each model correctly classifies, the number of debris-flow falling within the area classified as unstable by each model, and through the metric of ROC curves. Although all techniques implemented yielded results essentially comparable; the discriminant model based on the partition of the study area into small slope units may constitute the most suitable approach to regional debris-flow assessment in the Alpine environment.     

Further observations of radio sources from the BG survey. II. Mainly extragalactic

New observations of six fields from the low galactic latitude BG survey are presented. The radio sources within each of these fields appear to be of a predominantly extragalactic nature. However, one object is in close positional proximity to the pulsar 1922 + 20 and the possibility of their association is considered. The extended source BGE 0323 + 65 is shown to be unlikely to exist.     

Study of temperature and precipitation variations in Italy based on surface instrumental observations

In this paper we present a study concerning the climatic behaviour of two principal observables, temperature and precipitation as obtained from the measurements carried out at 50 Italian meteorological stations, since 1961. Analyses of WMO Climate Normals (CliNo) from 1961 to 1990 have been performed dividing the 50 Italian stations in three different classes: mountain (11 stations), continental (17) and coastal areas (21).The comparison of the CliNo 1961–1990 with the trend of temperature and precipitation for the period 1991–2000 showed a sharp significant increase of summer temperatures over Italy starting from 1980. This phenomenon was particularly evident for mountain stations, where a significant temperature increase has been recorded also during the autumn. Moreover, the analysis of precipitation data permitted to point out that, starting from 1980, mountain stations have been affected by a significant increase of precipitation events during autumn and winter, while for the rest of the Italian territory a reduction of precipitations has been recorded during early spring.     

Size‐frequency distributions of Joania cordata and Argyrotheca cuneata (Brachiopoda: Megathyrididae) from the Central Tyrrhenian Sea

Size‐frequency distributions can support reliable inferences concerning population dynamics of brachiopods, but only a few data are available so far. In this study, length and width frequency distributions of dead specimens of the Recent brachiopods Joania cordata and Argyrotheca cuneata from the Marine Protected Area ‘Secche di Tor Paterno’, Central Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy (41°35′ N, 12°20′ E), are reported in order to add new data about size‐frequency distributions of brachiopods. The studied specimens came from death assemblages in the coralligenous substrate, in the Posidonia oceanica meadows, and in the sand channels. The observed patterns vary from left‐skewed (J. cordata) to right‐skewed (A. cuneata), indicating respectively a low and high mortality of smaller individuals. Significant differences between the coralligenous substrate and the P. oceanica meadow were observed for both species, revealing a variation among different habitats. All length and width distributions are clearly polymodal, but the biological meaning of the peaks is difficult to interpret, as the two species seem to have a 2‐year life span. A biometric analysis of shell sizes revealed that length and width are the most variable parameters during the growth of the animal.     

Garnet and spinel in fertile and depleted mantle: insights from thermodynamic modelling

We performed thermodynamic calculations based on model and natural peridotitic compositions at pressure and temperature conditions relevant to the Earth’s upper mantle, using well-established free energy minimization techniques. The model is consistent with the available experimental data in Cr-bearing peridotitic systems and can therefore be used to predict phase relations and mineral compositions in a wide range of realistic mantle compositions. The generated phase diagrams for six different bulk compositions, representative of fertile, depleted and ultra-depleted peridotitic mantle, shown that the garnet + spinel stability field is always broad at low temperatures and progressively narrows with increasing temperatures. In lithospheric sections with hot geotherms (ca. 60 mW/m²), garnet coexists with spinel across an interval of 10–15 km, at ca. 50–70 km depths. In colder, cratonic, lithospheric sections (e.g. along a 40 mW/m² geotherm), the width of the garnet–spinel transition strongly depends on bulk composition: In fertile mantle, spinel can coexist with garnet to about 120 km depth, while in an ultra-depleted harzburgitic mantle, it can be stable to over 180 km depth. The formation of chromian spinel inclusions in diamonds is restricted to pressures between 4.0 and 6.0 GPa. The modes of spinel decrease rapidly to less than 1 vol % when it coexists with garnet; hence, spinel grains can be easily overlooked during the petrographical characterization of small mantle xenoliths. The very Cr-rich nature of many spinels from xenoliths and diamonds from cratonic settings may be simply a consequence of their low modes in high-pressure assemblages; thus, their composition does not necessarily imply an extremely refractory composition of the source rock. The model also shows that large Ca and Cr variations in lherzolitic garnets in equilibrium with spinel can be explained by variations of pressure and temperature along a continental geotherm and do not necessarily imply variations of bulk composition. The slope of the Cr# [i.e. Cr/(Cr + Al)mol] isopleths in garnet in equilibrium with spinel changes significantly at high temperatures, posing serious limitations to the applicability of empirical geobarometric methods calibrated on cratonic mantle xenoliths in hotter, off-craton, lithospheric mantle sections.     

A clinopyroxene geobarometer for basaltic systems based on crystal-structure modeling

 The crystal chemical response of basalt clinopyroxene to increasing pressure was investigated by means of crystal-structure simulation (a procedure that enables modeling of the structural parameters of a clinopyroxene of known chemistry without requiring direct X-ray diffraction analysis) using available experimental chemical data. Pressure proved the main physical variable governing clinopyroxene behavior in a magmatic environment. The general internal consistency of the simulation data permitted construction of an empirical geobarometer based on the relationship of cell volume (Vc) vs M1-site volume (VM1). The straightforward geobarometric formulation in the absence of direct X-ray analysis is: P(kbar)=698.443+4.985⋅Al_T−26.826⋅Fe²⁺ _M1−3.764⋅Fe³⁺ +53.989⋅Al_M1+3.948⋅Ti+14.651⋅Cr −700.431⋅Ca−666.629⋅Na−682.848⋅Mg_M2−691.138⋅Fe²⁺ _M2−688.384⋅Mn−6.267⋅(Mg_M2)²−4.144⋅(Fe²⁺ _M2 where: (Fe²⁺ _M1⋅Mg_M2)/(Fe²⁺ _M2⋅Mg_M1)=e^**(0.238⋅R³⁺+0.289⋅CNM−2.315), CNM=Ca+Na+Mn, and R³⁺=Al_M1+Fe³⁺+Ti+Cr, with cations in atoms per formula unit. The geobarometer reproduces experimental pressures within ±2 kbar (=1σ; max. dev. ≤5 kbar; N=29) in the range 0–24 kbar and is applicable to near-liquidus C2/c clinopyroxenes crystallized from basaltic melts in the absence of garnet (excepting high-Al₂O₃ basalts). It is therefore suitable for many natural clinopyroxenes occurring as mega- or phenocrysts or forming well-preserved cumulate pyroxenites. If the above restrictions are not wholly satisfied, the Vc vs VM1 plot can also be used qualitatively to deduce the relative pressure conditions of clinopyroxenes forming from similar batches of magma. The structural simulation of experimental data also provided insight into the influence of minor chemical changes of the parental magma on the crystal chemistry of clinopyroxene at high pressure. Within the considered compositional space at given P-T, a _CaO and a _SiO2 in the melt have opposite effects on M2- and T-site cation populations. As a result, under similar physical conditions, clinopyroxenes from higher-CaO or more undersaturated basalts have higher VM2, VT and Vc and lower VM1. For basalts with normal contents of Al₂O₃ (<18 wt %), variations of major elements in the melt do not reduce the accuracy of the geobarometer. Received: 3 April 1994 / Accepted: 23 December 1995