The lower crust beneath cratonic north-east Europe: isotopic constraints from garnet granulite xenoliths

Lower crustal garnet-bearing mafic granulite xenoliths from beneath the cratonic areas of NE Europe (NW Russia, Belarus, Finland) have unradiogenic ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ratios that differ strongly from those of xenoliths from beneath Phanerozoic regions of the European plate and worldwide, but closely resemble xenoliths from other cratonic regions of the world. Phanerozoic lower crustal xenoliths worldwide also show a very limited range of Pb isotope compositions whereas most cratonic lower crustal xenoliths have more varied but usually unradiogenic Pb isotope compositions, plotting to the left of the Geochron. However, many of the xenoliths from beneath NE Europe plot on the right-hand side of the Geochron and also have more radiogenic ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb ratios. Thus, the lower crust of NE Europe shows characteristics of both cratonic lower crust (unradiogenic Nd isotopes) and Phanerozoic lower crust (radiogenic Pb isotopes). Its present-day low U/Pb and Th/Pb ratios indicate that it has been depleted in heat-producing elements, but the radiogenic Pb isotope ratios show that this depletion occurred relatively recently.     

A regime shift in sediment export from a coastal watershed during a record wet winter,California: Implications for landscape response to hydroclimatic extremes

Small, steep watersheds are prolific sediment sources from which sediment flux is highly sensitive to climatic changes. Storm intensity and frequency are widely expected to increase during the 21st century, and so assessing the response of small, steep watersheds to extreme rainfall is essential to understanding landscape response to climate change. During record winter rainfall in 2016–2017, the San Lorenzo River, coastal California, had nine flow peaks representing 2–10‐year flood magnitudes. By the third flood, fluvial suspended sediment showed a regime shift to greater and coarser sediment supply, coincident with numerous landslides in the watershed. Even with no singular catastrophic flood, these flows exported more than half as much sediment as had a 100‐year flood 35 years earlier, substantially enlarging the nearshore delta. Annual sediment load in 2017 was an order of magnitude greater than during an average‐rainfall year, and 500‐fold greater than in a recent drought. These anomalous sediment inputs are critical to the coastal littoral system, delivering enough sediment, sometimes over only a few days, to maintain beaches for several years. Future projections of megadroughts punctuated by major atmospheric‐river storm activity suggest that interannual sediment‐yield variations will become more extreme than today in the western USA, with potential consequences for coastal management, ecosystems, and water‐storage capacity. The occurrence of two years with major sediment export over the past 35 years that were not associated with extremes of the El Niño Southern Oscillation or Pacific Decadal Oscillation suggests caution in interpreting climatic signals from marine sedimentary deposits derived from small, steep, coastal watersheds, to avoid misinterpreting the frequencies of those cycles. Published 2018. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

Time to leave: an analysis of travel times during the approach and landfall of Hurricane Irma

Hurricane Irma caused widespread evacuation activity across Florida and some of its neighboring states in September of 2017. The researchers gathered estimated travel times from the Google Distance Matrix API over about a month to identify and analyze evacuation periods on roads in Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina during this time. Travel time data were mathematically adjusted to show more realistic estimations. Both sets of travel times were then graphed, with the assumption that elevated travel times prior to and during hurricane landfall were indicative of evacuation activity. The study generally corroborated the well-established daytime evacuation preference. However, not all evacuation periods followed the daytime travel preference, and at least one nighttime evacuation may have been caused by flooding. In another case, later elevated travel coincided with significant power loss. Finally, the Florida data suggest that most of the evacuation traffic departed before local jurisdictions’ recommended evacuation start times.

     

A semi-empirical approach to model pressure dependence of elastic moduli in granular media accounting for variations of coordination-number and Poisson-ratio

The effective medium theory based on the Hertz–Mindlin contact law is the most popular theory to relate dynamic elastic moduli (or elastic velocities) and confining pressure in dry granular media. However, many experimental results proved that the effective medium theory predicts pressure trends lower than experimental ones and over-predicts the shear modulus. To mitigate these mispredictions, several evolutions of the effective medium theory have been presented in the literature. Among these, the model named modified grain contact theory is an empirical approach in which three parametric curves are included in the effective medium theory model. Fitting the parameters of these curves permits to adjust the pressure trends of the Poisson ratio and the bulk modulus. In this paper, we present two variations of the modified grain contact theory model. First, we propose a minor modification in the fitting function for the porosity dependence of the calibration parameters that accounts for non-linearity in the vicinity of the critical porosity. Second, we propose a major modification that reduces the three-step modified grain contact theory model to a two-step model, by skipping the calibration parameter–porosity fit in the model and directly modelling the calibration parameter–pressure relation. In addition to an increased simplicity (the fitting parameters are reduced from 10 to 6), avoiding the porosity fit permits us to apply the model to laboratory data that are not provided with accurate porosity measurements. For this second model, we also estimate the uncertainty of the fitting parameters and the elastic velocities. We tested this model on dry core measurements from literature and we verified that it returns elastic velocity trends as good as the original modified grain contact theory model with a reduced number of fitting parameters. Possible developments of the new model to add predictive power are also discussed.     

珠江三角洲世界工厂的非正规职业中介及其作用——以广东省东莞市塘厦镇为例

国内外现有研究认为,农民工的求职渠道非常单一,主要依赖社会关系网络。本文选取典型的珠江三角洲世界工厂所在地——广东省东莞市塘厦镇为案例,对非正规职业中介机构进行了深入调查研究。发现非正规中介机构在农民工的求职过程中发挥着重要作用,帮助农民工实现灵活、即时的就业,其存在是在我国转型期市场改革不断深入的背景下,企业/工厂的用工需求、农民工的求职需要、中介机构的逐利目的和地方政府的宽容态度共同作用的结果。非正规职业中介机构是市场动力作用下的新型农民工非正规求职渠道,是原有的社会关系网络求职渠道的延伸。研究表明,在现阶段中国城市化过程中,非正规的动力在解决农民工求职乃至城市化过程中具有重要的作用。     

On the planar motion in the full two-body problem with inertial symmetry

Relative motion of binary asteroids, modeled as the full two-body planar problem, is studied, taking into account the shape and mass distribution of the bodies. Using the Lagrangian approach, the equations governing the motion are derived. The resulting system of four equations is nonlinear and coupled. These equations are solved numerically. In the particular case where the bodies have inertial symmetry, these equations can be reduced to a single equation, with small nonlinearity. The method of multiple scales is used to obtain a first-order solution for the reduced nonlinear equation. The solution is shown to be sufficient when compared with the numerical solution. Numerical results are provided for different example cases, including truncated-cone-shaped and peanut-shaped bodies.     

Sampling Strategies for Estimation of Parameters Related to Ground Water Quality

Multiple theoretical sampling designs are studied to determine whether sampling designs can be identified that will provide for characterization of ground water quality in rural regions of developing nations. Sampling design in this work includes assessing sampling frequency, analytical methods, length of sampling period, and requirements of sampling personnel. The results answer a set of questions regarding whether using innovative sampling designs can allow hydrogeologists to take advantage of a range of characterization technologies, sampling strategies, and available personnel to develop high-value, water-quality data sets. Monte Carlo studies are used to assess different sampling strategies in the estimation of three parameters related to a hypothetical chemical observed in a ground water well: mean concentration (MeanC), maximum concentration (MaxC), and total mass load (TML). Five different scenarios are simulated. These scenarios are then subsampled using multiple simulated sampling instruments, time periods (ranging from 1 to 10 years), and sampling frequencies (ranging from weekly to semiannually to parameter dependent). Results are analyzed via the statistics of the resulting estimates, including mean square error, bias, bias squared, and precision. Results suggest that developing a sampling strategy based on what may be considered lower quality instruments can represent a powerful field research approach for estimating select parameters when applied at high frequency. This result suggests the potential utility of using a combination of lower quality instrument and local populations to obtain high frequency data sets in regions where regular monitoring by technicians is not practical.