Comparisons of modelled and observed climate for impact assessments

Summary Comparisons between observed and modelled values of surface temperature, surface precipitation and 500 hPa height for the current climate were made for the southeast United States. Daily values and analyses pertinent to impact assessment, were emphasized. For the model, the time-independent 10-year series of values developed by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory general circulation model were used. Observations were drawn from records for various stations and decades within the model grid-cell. Cumulative frequency distributions of temperature indicated both more clustering close to the mean and greater extremes for the model. The model reproduced the seasonal cycle of day-to-day temperature variability, but introduced a phase shift of about four months. One result was an apparent overabundance of hot spells in the model results. For precipitation the model indicated twice as many raindays as were observed, about the same number of days when precipitation exceeded 5 mm, and fewer days with amounts exceeding 10 mm, effectively decreasing the probability of heavy precipitation while enhancing annual totals. In winter the model appeared to represent the results from an aggregation of stations within the grid-cell, but in summer it was closer to individual station results. The model reproduced the seasonal cycle in the height and standard deviation of the 500 hPa surface, with a damped amplitude in both cases.With 9 Figures     

Spatial distributions of the softstem bulrush,Scirpus validus,across a salinity gradient

Spatial distribution patterns ofScirpus validus were studied in tidal marshes of the lower Savannah River. The hypothesis that changes in spatial pattern forS. validus would accompany differences in environmental parameters was tested by sampling densities and biomass along environmental gradients of salinity and elevation. Coefficients of dispersion were calculated forS. validus and used to compare spatial patterns among freshwater, midly oligohaline, strongly oligohaline, and mesohaline tidal marshes. Results indicated significantly greater clumping ofS. validus in mesohaline marsh than in freshwater marsh. Only the mildly oligohaline site supported a random population ofS. validus, while the strongly oligohaline marsh supported a uniform spatial distribution. Spatial pattern and relative importance ofS. validus, as well as composition of co-occurring species, changed significantly with changing salinity. The relations between changes in relative importance ofS. validus and differences in soil organic matter and elevation were also significant.     

The latitudinal distribution of carbon monoxide across the pacific from California to Antarctica

The results of a research study of the carbon monoxide concentration from California to 90° S, Antarctica are presented. The data both extend and support other research studies of the latitudinal distribution of carbon monoxide in that higher concentrations are evident over the Northern Hemisphere than over the Southern Hemisphere. Carbon monoxide concentrations range between 50 to 60 ppb with a few peaks into the 60s in the latitudinal area south of the ITCZ and values of 80 ppb or higher at latitudes north of Hawaii. A comparison is also made of carbon monoxide and ozone concentrations along the flight tract between California and Antarctica, over the Ellsworth Mountains of Antarctica, and between 78° S and the South Pole. These ozone-carbon monoxide data show statistically significant negative correlations in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere over Antarctica. It is believed that this is a good indication of mixing across the tropopause.     

Deglaciation and postglacial timberline in the San Juan Mountains,Colorado

Lake Emma, which no longer exists because of a mining accident, was a tarn in a south-facing cirque near the headwaters of the Animas River in the San Juan Mountains of southwestern Colorado. During the Pinedale glaciation, this area was covered by a large transection glacier centered over the Lake Emma region. Three radiocarbon dates on basal organic sediment from Lake Emma indicate that by ca. 15,000 yr B.P. this glacier, one of the largest in the southern Rocky Mountains, no longer existed. Twenty-two radiocarbon dates on Picea and Abies krummholz fragments in the Lake Emma deposits indicate that from ca. 9600 to 7800 yr B.P., from 6700 to 5600 yr B.P., and at 3100 yr B.P. the krummholz limit was at least 70 m higher than present. These data, in conjunction with Picea:Pinus pollen ratios from both the Lake Emma site and the Hurricane Basin site of J. T. Andrews, P. E. Carrara, F. B. King, and R. Struckenrath (1975, Quaternary Research 5, 173–197) suggest than from ca. 9600 to 3000 yr B.P. timberline in the San Juan Mountains was higher than present. Cooling apparently began ca. 3000 yr B.P. as indicated by decreases in both the percentage of Picea pollen and Picea:Pinus pollen ratios at the Hurricane Basin site (Andrews et al., 1975). Cooling is also suggested by the lack of Picea or Abies fragments younger than 3000 yr B.P. at either the Lake Emma or the Hurricane Basin site.     

An erosion criterion for gravel-bed rivers

A theoretically-based erosion criterion is developed for gravel-bed rivers which incorporates the effect of both grain geometry and turbulent velocity fluctuations. It is derived from a balance of instantaneous drag, lift, and gravity forces operating on individual grains and is calculated for spherical grains arranged in three distinct geometries. To accommodate the temporal variation in bed shear stress, the model includes a stochastic element based on the characteristics of turbulence derived from the flume evidence of McQuivey (1973a, b). In terms of the Shields parameter, results show reasonable agreement with the range of observations quoted from the field and with the experimental data of Fenton and Abbott (1977). Finally, the argument is generalized to cover applications in the wider context of field conditions including a range of grain sizes and flow conditions.     

Two diamond-bearing peridotite xenoliths from the finsch kimberlite,South Africa

Two diamond bearing xenoliths found at Finsch Mine are coarse garnet lherzolites, texturally and chemically similar to the dominant mantle xenoliths in that kimberlite. A total of 46 diamonds weighing 0.053 carats have been recovered from one and 53 diamonds weighing 0.332 carats from the other. The diamonds are less corroded than diamonds recovered from the kimberlite. Geothermobarometric calculations indicate that the xenoliths equilibrated at 1,130° C and pressures 50 kb which is within the diamond stability field; this corresponds to depths of 160 km and would place the rocks on a shield geotherm at slightly greater depths than most coarse garnet lherzolites from kimberlite. The primary minerals in the two rocks are very similar to each other but distinctly different to the majority of mineral inclusions in Finsch diamonds. This suggests a different origin for the diamonds in the kimberlite and the diamonds in the xenoliths although the equilibration conditions for both suites are approximately coincident and close to the wet peridotite solidus.