Evolutionary status of T Tauri stars

The problem of determining the masses and ages of T Tauri star(TTS) using their evolutionary status is discussed. We test four pre-main sequence evolutionary models using well determined observational parameters of 12 binary TTSs and two binary red dwarfs. It is shown that the masses derived using the tracks of all models are in good agreement with the masses obtained from the observations of TTSs with masses M 0.7 M_⊙(mean error ε ~ 10%). Low-mass stars with M ≤ 0.7 M_⊙have significantly greater mean error: ε ~ 50% for the tracks of Bressan et al. and Chen et al., and ε ~ 30% for the other tracks. The isochrones of all tested evolutionary models diverge for stars with masses M ≤ 0.7 M_⊙. The difference increases with the mass decrease and can reach 10% of KelvinHelmholtz time for stars with mass M = 0.2 M_⊙. The ages of most of the considered TTSs are smaller than the Kelvin-Helmholtz time. This confirms their evolutionary status of being pre-main sequence stars.     

Martian cratering 12. Utilizing primary crater clusters to study crater populations and meteoroid properties

Images from Mars Global Surveyor and later images from Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter reveal that roughly half of the meteoroids striking Mars (at meter to few decameter crater diameters) fragment in the Martian atmosphere, producing small clusters of primary impact craters. Statistics of these “primary clusters” yield valuable information about important Martian phenomena and properties of interplanetary bodies, including meteoroid behavior in the Martian atmosphere, bulk strengths of bodies striking Mars, and the fraction of Martian “field secondary” craters, a datum that would improve crater count chronometry. Many Martian impactors fragment at altitudes significantly higher than 18 km above the mean surface of Mars, and we find that most bodies striking Mars and Earth have low bulk strengths, consistent with crumbly or highly fractured objects. Applying statistics of primary clusters at various elevations and independent diameter bins, we describe a technique to estimate the percentage of semirandomly scattered “field secondary” craters. Our provisional estimate of this percentage, in the diameter range ~250 m down to ~22 m, is ~40% to ~80% of the total impacts, with the higher percentages at smaller diameters. Our data argue against earlier suggestions of overwhelming dominance by either primaries or secondaries in this diameter range.     

Timing,magnitude and geochemistry of major Southeast Asian volcanic eruptions: identifying tephrochronologic markers

We review the current knowledge about Southeast Asian volcanoes and their eruption histories, and focus on identifying tephrochronologic markers representing major explosive eruptions in order to further future palaeoclimate and volcanological studies. Forty-one volcanic edifices in Southeast Asia have been classified as large calderas by Whelley et al. (2015) and thus have, or are likely to have, produced large explosive eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6–8. Unfortunately, only 20 such eruptions have known ages, spanning from 1.2 Ma to 1991 ad , and fewer have geochemical data that can be used for tephrostratigraphic correlations. Volcanic products from different geodynamic regions and different sources can generally be distinguished on major element plots (e.g. K₂O versus CaO) of matrix glass composition. However, the distinction of multiple eruptions from the same source often requires additional data such as trace element compositions of matrix glass and/or mineral compositions. Biotite, but also magnetite compositions (MgO and TiO₂ content in particular) appear to be very discriminating. Up to nine tuffs in addition to the three to four Toba tuffs can be utilised as widespread tephrochronologic markers and span a range from 1.2 to 1.6 Ma to recent. As only a few Holocene major eruptions have been well characterised and dated, many large calderas are still unstudied, and many distal tephra layers are still lacking a source, more tephrochronologic markers can certainly be defined in the future.     

Determination of Trace Elements (Ag, B, Ge, Mo, Sn, W, Tl) in Reference Samples of Soils and Bottom Sediments by Atomic Emission Spectrometry: A Traceability and Fitness-for-Purpose Study

Reference samples of soils from the Institute of Applied Physics, Irkutsk (RIAP), the Institute of Geochemistry, Irkutsk (IGI) and the United States Geological Survey, Reston (USGS) were analysed with the aim of determining Ag, B, Ge, Mo, Sn, Tl and W abundances by an atomic emission method with air-stabilised D.C. arc excitation. Two series of reference samples of soils and bottom sediments, GSS-1-8 and GSD-1-12 (IGGE), were used to ensure the traceability link for the analytical results. Traceability was also demonstrated through the comparison of measured results by AES and ICP-MS methods. It is shown that the reference samples GSS-1-8 and GSD-1-12 satisfied the "fitness-for-purpose" criterion (uncertainty U of the certified value should be one-third to one-tenth the magnitude of routine laboratory data uncertainty S (S/U > 3-10)) and can be applied for calibrating AES techniques.     

Recent changes in flood risk in the Gran La Plata,Buenos Aires province,Argentina: causes and management strategy

The paper analyses the causes of flood occurrence in the Gran La Plata, Buenos Aires Province, Argentina, and the changes that have occurred since the 1970s. The area is characterized by serious deficiencies in the use and management of water resources. The main factors are: (1) flood risk information is not updated; (2) urban building organization does not consider the flood risk; (3) the topography and other physical features are not taken into account in urban development. This research considers some specific problems, especially in data availability, and suggests ways to solve them, including improved analytical methodology. One of the main objectives is to analyse flood risk in social terms, producing a map of flood risk from the “human social vulnerability” point of view. The results suggest that flood risk has increased since the 1980s and that this is associated with changes in precipitation patterns that have also been aggravated by lack of controls on urban development. The poorer areas with the lowest level of infrastructure and public services, many of them developed over the last quarter-century, are especially vulnerable.     

Neural network based daily precipitation generator (NNGEN-P)

Daily weather generators are used in many applications and risk analyses. The present paper explores the potential of neural network architectures to design daily weather generator models. Focusing this first paper on precipitation, we design a collection of neural networks (multi-layer perceptrons in the present case), which are trained so as to approximate the empirical cumulative distribution (CDF) function for the occurrence of wet and dry spells and for the precipitation amounts. This approach contributes to correct some of the biases of the usual two-step weather generator models. As compared to a rainfall occurrence Markov model, NNGEN-P represents fairly well the mean and standard deviation of the number of wet days per month, and it significantly improves the simulation of the longest dry and wet periods. Then, we compared NNGEN-P to three parametric distribution functions usually applied to fit rainfall cumulative distribution functions (Gamma, Weibull and double-exponential). A data set of 19 Argentine stations was used. Also, data corresponding to stations in the United States, in Europe and in the Tropics were included to confirm the results. One of the advantages of NNGEN-P is that it is non-parametric. Unlike other parametric function, which adapt to certain types of climate regimes, NNGEN-P is fully adaptive to the observed cumulative distribution functions, which, on some occasions, may present complex shapes. On-going works will soon produce an extended version of NNGEN to temperature and radiation.     

Composition and Flux of Holocene Sediments on the Eastern Laptev Sea Shelf, Arctic Siberia

A 467-cm-long core from the inner shelf of the eastern Laptev Sea provides a depositional history since 9400 cal yr. B.P. The history involves temporal changes in the fluvial runoff as well as postglacial sea-level rise and southward retreat of the coastline. Although the core contains marine fossils back to 8900 cal yr B.P., abundant plant debris in a sandy facies low in the core shows that a river influenced the study site until 8100 cal yr B.P. As sea level rose and the distance to the coast increased, this riverine influence diminished gradually and the sediment type changed, by 7400 cal yr B.P., from sandy silt to clayey silt. Although total sediment input decreased in a step-like fashion from 7600 to 4000 cal yr B.P., this interval had the highest average sedimentation rates and the greatest fluxes in most sedimentary components. While this maximum probably resulted from middle Holocene climate warming, the low input of sand to the site after 7400 cal yr B.P. probably resulted from further southward retreat of the coastline and river mouth. Since about 4000 cal yr B.P., total sediment flux has remained rather constant in this part of the Laptev Sea shelf due to a gradual stabilization of the depositional regime after completion of the Holocene sea-level rise.     

Observed precipitation in the Paraná-Plata hydrological basin: long-term trends, extreme conditions and ENSO teleconnections

The Paraná-Plata basin is the second largest hydrological basin in South America and is of great importance for the countries of the region (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay). The present study focuses on the long-term trends in basin-scale precipitation with special emphasis on the role of distribution changes in extreme large-scale precipitation events and on the characteristics and evolution of ENSO teleconnections over the last 50 years. First, we defined a Paraná-Plata basin total precipitation index (PTPI) as the precipitations spatially averaged over the hydrological basin. On interannual time scales, such an index is mainly representative of anomalous monsoon precipitations in the northern part of the basin and large convective precipitation anomalies in the center of the basin (Paraguay-southern Brazil-Uruguay-northern Argentina) typical of the canonical ENSO teleconnection pattern. Our major findings clearly highlight a positive trend in yearly averaged PTPI mainly from the late 1960s to the early 1980s with a strong dependence from month-to-month. The largest precipitation increase is observed from November to May in southern Brazil and Argentina. A close examination of PTPI distributions during the two halves of the period 1950–2001 shows that the changes in the mean state from 1950–1975 to 1976–2001 result from significant changes in each calendar month mean state and in the tails of the PTPI anomaly distributions in May with lesser and weaker large-scale dry events and stronger large-scale wet events. Further studies will be needed to assess whether the observed trend in large-scale extreme precipitation conditions can be related to natural climate variability or anthropogenic activities and whether it is associated to changes in local/regional extreme events. The stronger wet conditions in different months seem to be associated to changes in ENSO characteristics (amplitude, propagation, spatial structure, ...) since the 1982–1983 El Niño. Indeed, spatial ENSO teleconnections (stronger in November and April–May) have greatly evolved from 1950–1975 to 1976–2001. Moreover, we demonstrate that there is a strong modulation and displacement of the teleconnection patterns from one event to another, impeding the definition of robust statistical relationship between ENSO and precipitation in the Paraná-Plata basin (except maybe over a very limited area near the common border between Paraguay, Argentina and Brazil). Finally, the non-antisymmetrical patterns of precipitation between El Niño and La Niña conditions and the non-linear relationship between precipitation and either Niño3.4 or Niño1+2 sea surface temperature indices show that linear statistical forecast systems are actually of very limited use for impact predictions on society on a local or regional scale.