Flood risk perceptions and spatial multi-criteria analysis: an exploratory research for hazard mitigation

The conventional method of risk analysis (with risk as a product of probability and consequences) does not allow for a pluralistic approach that includes the various risk perceptions of stakeholders or lay people within a given social system. This article introduces a methodology that combines the virtues of three different methods: the quantifiable conventional approach to risk; the taxonomic analysis of perceived risk; and the analytical framework of a spatial multi-criteria analysis. This combination of methods is applied to the case study ‘Ebro Delta’ in Spain as part of the European sixth framework project ‘Floodsite’. First, a typology for flood hazards is developed based on individual and/or stakeholders’ judgements. Awareness, worry and preparedness are the three characteristics that typify a community to reflect various levels of ignorance, perceived security, perceived control or desired risk reduction. Applying ‘worry’ as the central characteristic, a trade-off is hypothesized between Worry and the benefits groups in society receive from a risky situation. Second, this trade-off is applied in Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis (SMCA). MCA is the vehicle that often accompanies participatory processes, where governmental bodies have to decide on issues in which local stakeholders have a say. By using risk perception-scores as weights in a standard MCA procedure a new decision framework for risk assessment is developed. Finally, the case of sea-level rise in the Ebro Delta in Spain serves as an illustration of the applied methodology. Risk perception information has been collected with help of an on-site survey. Risk perception enters the multi-criteria analysis as complementary weights for the criteria risk and benefit. The results of the survey are applied to a set of scenarios representing both sea-level rise and land subsidence for a time span of 50 years. Land use alternatives have been presented to stakeholders in order to provide the regional decision maker with societal preferences for handling risk. Even with limited resources a characteristic ‘risk profile’ could be drawn that enables the decision maker to develop a suitable land use policy.     

Pulsating strains

Pulsating strains are modelled analytically using a continuum model with a well defined heterogeneous rheology. The mechanical continuum comprises single circular cylindrical inclusions of isotropic homogeneous viscosity hosted in a less viscous matrix. The analysis concentrates on the behaviour of the competent inclusion and demonstrates that the progressive deformation of the inclusion is entirely controlled by its viscosity ratio to the host and the orientation of the far field stress. The rate of deformation is determined by the stress magnitude and the viscosity of the inclusion, but does not affect the deformation path followed. An extreme case is provided by pure shear deformations where, by definition, the shear rate vanishes from the deformation tensor. Vorticity will then be zero, and strains will develop coaxially without pulsation.     

Application of infrared thermography for temperature distributions in fluid-saturated porous media

Infrared thermography has increasingly gained importance because of environmental and technological advancements of this method and is applied in a variety of disciplines related to non-isothermal flow. However, it has not been used so far for quantitative thermal analysis in saturated porous media. This article suggests infrared thermographic approach to obtain the entire surface temperature distribution(s) in water-saturated porous media. For this purpose, infrared thermal analysis is applied with in situ calibration for a better understanding of the heat transfer processes in porous media. Calibration is achieved with a combination of invasive sensors which are inserted into the medium and non-invasive thermal sensors in which sensors are not inserted to measure temperatures but it works through the detection of infrared radiation emitted from the surface. Thermocouples of relatively thin diameter are used to minimize the disturbance for flow. Thermocouples give the temperature values at specified positions inside the porous medium, and these values are compared with the values suggested by the infrared thermographic device at the same positions, in the calibration exercise. The calibration process was repeated for different temperatures and flow rates to get the temperature distributions of the whole material inside the system. This technique enables us to measure accurate two-dimensional temperature distributions, which is not possible by using thermocouples only. Continuous point heat sources at different flow rates and temperatures are studied experimentally. Additionally, it offers numerical simulations of the experiments utilizing a finite element-based model. A two-dimensional density and viscosity-dependent flow and transport model accounting for thermal dispersion is utilized to simulate the experimental results. Possible small heat losses from the surface are incorporated in the model according to the properties and thickness of the Plexiglass material used for the construction of the experiment tank. The numerical results agree well with the experimental observations.     

The polar spirals of Mars may be due to glacier surges deflected by Coriolis forces

All previous accounts of the spiral patterns at the Martian poles emphasize that the north polar spiral is centered about the geographic pole, whereas that of the south polar region is off-set by about 4°. This paper demonstrates that the patterns near both poles are centered on topographic highs rather than the spin poles themselves. This is circumstantial evidence in favour of the relatively unexplored mechanism of radial outflow of viscous rock by gravity spreading.The hypothesis developed here is that the spiral patterns are essentially due to crevasse patterns formed perpendicular to flow lines which are perturbed by Coriolis forces. In order to account for a crevasse pattern that has a form concave to the east the angular deflection of an hypothetical ice flow emanating from the topographic high centered about the geographical north pole, must be about 40° or 0.7 radians in a westward direction at 85°N latitude.The polar cap rock has previously been assumed to consist mainly of either frozen carbondioxide or water ice. Corresponding viscosities (at 190 K) allow for the occurrence of radial outflow or gravity driven tectonics at a maximum rate of 1 cm a⁻¹, but the flow pattern remains unaffected by Coriolis forces.The spiral patterns of the Martian poles can be explained if the flowing mass has an occasional effective kinematic viscosity as low as about 7 × 10⁶ m² s⁻¹, because gravity tectonics will then be deflected by Coriolis forces resulting in appropriately curved flowlines. A tensile fracture pattern, resembling an anticlockwise spiral pattern perpendicular to the clockwise deflected flowlines may subsequently form by local brittle failure.The occasional kinematic viscosity 7 × 10⁶ m² s⁻¹ would cause flow rates of 0.2 m s⁻¹ along the slopes of the topographic highs. This velocity and the corresponding viscosity is tentatively thought to be possible when thermal and pressure runaway occurs in the polar layered deposits. This would mean glacier surges on the Martian poles are two orders of magnitude faster than those hitherto observed on Earth.     

The upper crust low velocity layer; a Rayleigh (Rg) phase velocity study from SE Norway

A recent surge of interest in short-period fundamental mode Rayleigh waves (Rg) propagation is motivated by their usefulness for structural mapping and estimation of attenuation (Q) properties of the uppermost crust, their importance in scattering studies and as a nuisance (false alarms) in detection seismology. We have investigated Rg phase velocity dispersion characteristics, using recordings from 16 out of 22 subarrays of the NORSAR array of aperture 100 km. The observed phase velocity in combination with a one-layer and two-layers model over halfspace models were inverted using a maximum likelihood scheme. In view of the smoothness and simplicity of the dispersion curves, the number of unknowns were limited to three parameters, namely shear velocities and thickness, using a Poisson's ratio of 0.25 for P-S velocity coupling and density fixed. In the general array siting area the derived low velocity layer has an average thickness of 1.02 km, and the associated shear velocity is 2.82 km s^-1. The underlying model half space appears to be uniform, and its derived shear velocity is 3.55 km s^-1, which is typical of the upper crust. In contrast to other similar studies, no obvious correlation was found with local geology, which mainly consists of Precambrian crystalline rock sequences. Group velocities were calculated from the structural models and compared to the observational ones. The agreement between calculated and observed group velocities was reasonable.     

A revision of the Eurasian-African plate boundary in the western Mediterranean

The current picture of the plate configuration in the western Mediterranean suggests that Africa and Europe are separated by a transcurrent fault striking east-west through the Strait of Gibraltar and the Alboran Sea. Such a fault has been generally assumed because the Azores transform fault approaches the Horseshoe Seamounts north of Madeira and therefore could possibly extend through the Strait of Gibraltar. However, detailed geological studies in the Arc of Gibraltar and the Alboran Sea reveal no major east-west fault transecting the crust there. This finding is used here to revise the boundary between the African and Eurasian plates. It is suggested that the northern boundary of the African plate in the western Mediterranean is formed by the Hayes-Atlas Fault instead of the Azores transform.

---

Zusammenfassung Nach gegenwärtiger Auffassung der Plattenkonfiguration im westlichen Mittelmeergebiet werden Afrika und Europa durch eine Ost-West verlaufende Transformverwerfung durch die Straße von Gibraltar und die Alboran See getrennt. Eine solche Verwerfung wird allgemein angenommen, da die Azoren-Transformverwerfung bis zum Horseshoe Seamount reicht und möglicherweise durch die Straße von Gibraltar fortgesetzt ist. Detailierte geologische Untersuchungen im Gibraltarbogen und der Alboran-See weisen jedoch nicht auf eine größere Ost-West Verwerfung hin, die dort die Kruste durchziehen könnte. Auf Grund dieses Befundes wird die Grenze zwischen der afrikanischen und der eurasischen Platte rediviert. Es wird vorgeschlagen, daß nicht die Azoren-Transformverwerfung, sondern die Hayes-Atlas-Verwerfung die nördliche Begrenzung der afrikanischen Platte im westlichen Mittelmeergebiet bildet.

---

Résumé Le modèle habituellement admis des plaques dans la partie ouest de la Mediterranée suggère que l'Afrique et l'Europe sont séparées par une faille transcurrente est-ouest passant par le détroit de Gibraltar et la mer d'Alboran. Cette conception se base sur le fait que la faille transformante des Açores atteint le »Horseshoe Seamount« au nord de Madère et qu'elle pourrait se prolonger au travers du détroit de Gibraltar. Toutefois, des études géologiques détaillées dans l'Arc de Gibraltar et la mer d'Alboran ne révèlent pas de faille majeure (est-ouest) qui affecterait la croûte dans cette région. Cette observation amène une nouvelle interprétation du contact entre les plaques africaine et eurasiatique: il est suggéré que la bordure nord de la plaque africaine dans la partie ouest de la Méditerranée est formée par la faille de «Hayes-Atlas» et non par celle des Açores.

---

, . , «» (Horseshoe Seamounts), , , . , - . . , , Hayes-Atlas.

     

2D surface topography boundary conditions in seismic wave modelling

New formulations of boundary conditions at an arbitrary two-dimensional (2D) free-surface topography are derived. The top of a curved grid represents the free-surface topography while the grid's interior represents the physical medium. The velocity–stress version of the viscoelastic wave equations is assumed to be valid in this grid. However, the rectangular grid version attained by grid transformation is used to model wave propagation in this work in order to achieve the numerical discretization. We show the detailed solution of the particle velocities at the free surface resulting from discretizing the boundary conditions by second-order finite-differences (FDs). The resulting system of equations is spatially unconditionally stable. The FD order is gradually increased with depth up to eighth order inside the medium. Staggered grids are used in both space and time, and the second-order leap-frog and Crank–Nicholson methods are used for time-stepping. We simulate point sources at the surface of a homogeneous medium with a plane free surface containing a hill and a trench. Applying parameters representing exploration surveys, we present examples with a randomly realized surface topography generated by a 1D von Kármán function of order 1. Viscoelastic simulations are presented using this surface with a homogeneous medium and with a layered, randomized medium realization, all generating significant scattering.