Experimental superensemble forecasts of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal

This study entails the implementation of an experimental real time forecast capability for tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal basin of North Indian Ocean. This work is being built on the experience gained from a number of recent studies using the concept of superensemble developed at the Florida State University (FSU). Real time hurricane forecasts are one of the major components of superensemble modeling at FSU. The superensemble approach of training followed by real time forecasts produces the best forecasts for tracks and intensity (up to 5 days) of Atlantic hurricanes and Pacific typhoons. Improvements in track forecasts of about 25–35% compared to current operational forecast models has been noted over the Atlantic Ocean basin. The intensity forecasts for hurricanes are only marginally better than the best models. In this paper, we address tropical cyclone forecasts over the Bay of Bengal for the years 1996–2000. The main result from this study is that the position and intensity errors for tropical cyclone forecasts over the Bay of Bengal from the multimodel superensemble are generally less than those of all of the participating models during 1- to 3-day forecasts. Some of the major tropical cyclones, such as the November 1996 Andhra Pradesh cyclone and October 1999 Orissa super cyclone were well handled by this superensemble approach. A conclusion from this study is that the proposed approach may be a viable way to construct improved forecasts of Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone positions and intensity.     

Long-period oscillations of the line-of-sight velocities in and near sunspots at various levels in the photosphere

New observational data on long-period oscillations of the line-of-sight velocities detected via the Doppler shifts of spectral lines observed at various heights in and near sunspots are presented. The sunspots and nearby magnetic elements oscillate with periods ranging from 40 to 80 min. The oscillations in the line-of-sight velocities persist over the entire observation session (up to four hours). These results support theoretical models in which this phenomenon represents natural long-period oscillations (vertical-radial displacements) of entire magnetic elements (sunspots, pores, and magnetic knots) about some stable equilibrium positions.     

Hydrocarbons and other volatile components in alkaline rocks from the Ukrainian shield and Kola Peninsula

Gas chromatography and other analytical techniques (EMR, PMR, and IR spectroscopy) were used to examine volatile components (CH₄, C₂-C₃, CO₂, CO, H₂, H₂O, and others) in alkaline rocks and minerals from the Ukrainian Shield (eight massifs and dikes of grorudites) and from the Khibina and Lovozero massifs in the Baltic Shield. The alkaline rocks from the Ukrainian Shield are mostly of Proterozoic (1.7–2.1 Ga) age. The alkaline rocks from the Kola Peninsula were confirmed to be rich in methane (21 ± 14 μl/g on average) and other hydrocarbons, whereas the analogous rocks from the Ukrainian Shield are poor in methane (2.1 ± 1.6 μl/g on average at a maximum of 14 μl/g). The latter rocks are richer in CO₂, which is one of the major volatile components of alkaline rocks, including agpaitic nepheline syenites from the Kola Peninsula. The rocks from the Ukrainian Shield often have elevated contents of nitrogen (up to 20 μl/g). The reasons for the differences in the composition of volatile components of rocks from the Kola Peninsula and Ukrainian Shield are as follows: the agpaitic crystallization trends of large massifs in the Kola Peninsula and much less clearly pronounced agpaitic trends in the small massifs in the Ukrainian Shield, the affiliation of these rocks with different complexes, the deeper erosion levels of the Ukrainian alkaline massifs, different ages of these rocks, etc.     

Geodynamics of the Early Precambrian,Part 1: Volcanism and associated mantle processes

The work is dedicated to most important abiotic processes of the Early Precambrian, effect of which is recorded in continental crust, and to complementary processes in subcontinental mantle. We intend to figure out when a certain process was triggered first in the past and what indications suggest its further activity, evolution and possible cessation in subsequent geological history. Considerations are based on described natural objects characterizing particular geological events and enabling the cause-and-effect interpretation in order to understand different viewpoints known from publications. Considered in the work are the early Precambrian greenstone belts and ophiolites, island-arc systems and ecologites, magmatism unconnected with subduction zones (rifting-related, plateau basalts, dykes, kimberlites) and anorthosites representing a group of heterochronous intrusions of complicated genesis. Main considerations are premised with a brief review of the earliest geodynamic phenomena associated with meteorite impacts by termination of the planetary accretion.     

Principal stages in evolution of Precambrian organic world: Communication 1. Archean and Early Proterozoic

Expounded in this work are the results of critical consideration of published and original data on biologic nature and appearance chronology of different groups of Archean and Lower Proterozoic (3.5–1.65 Ga) paleontological remains known from geological record. Conclusions are substantiated by morphological analysis of structurally preserved microfossils, their facies distribution, and by inferable genesis and principal evolutionary trends of Archean stromatolites. A special attention is paid to variations of organic and carbonate carbon isotope composition in sedimentary successions with paleontological remains and to recent information about discovered, most ancient biomarkers of large groups of organic world. As a result of this approach, a detailed model of Precambrian organic world evolution is suggested.