The XMM Cluster Survey: forecasting cosmological and cluster scaling-relation parameter constraints

We forecast the constraints on the values of  σ₈, Ω_m  and cluster scaling-relation parameters which we expect to obtain from the XMM Cluster Survey (XCS). We assume a flat Λ cold dark matter Universe and perform a Monte Carlo Markov Chain analysis of the evolution of the number density of galaxy clusters that takes into account a detailed simulated selection function. Comparing our current observed number of clusters shows good agreement with predictions. We determine the expected degradation of the constraints as a result of self-calibrating the luminosity–temperature relation (with scatter), including temperature measurement errors, and relying on photometric methods for the estimation of galaxy cluster redshifts. We examine the effects of systematic errors in scaling relation and measurement error assumptions. Using only  ( T , z )  self-calibration, we expect to measure Ω_m to ±0.03 (and  Ω_Λ  to the same accuracy assuming flatness), and σ₈ to ±0.05, also constraining the normalization and slope of the luminosity–temperature relation to ±6 and ±13 per cent (at 1σ), respectively, in the process. Self-calibration fails to jointly constrain the scatter and redshift evolution of the luminosity–temperature relation significantly. Additional archival and/or follow-up data will improve on this. We do not expect measurement errors or imperfect knowledge of their distribution to degrade constraints significantly. Scaling-relation systematics can easily lead to cosmological constraints 2σ or more away from the fiducial model. Our treatment is the first exact treatment to this level of detail, and introduces a new 'smoothed ML' (Maximum Likelihood) estimate of expected constraints.     

Laboratory methods for evaluating migrated high molecular weight hydrocarbons in marine sediments at naturally occurring oil seeps

A laboratory study has been conducted to determine the best methods for the detection of C₁₀–C₄₀ hydrocarbons at naturally occurring oil seeps in marine sediments. The results indicate that a commercially available method using n-C₆ to extract sediments and gas chromatography–flame ionization detection (GC–FID) to screen the resulting extract is effective at recognizing the presence of migrated hydrocarbons at concentrations from 50 to 5000 ppm. When non-biodegraded, the amount of oil charge is effectively tracked by the sum of n-alkanes in the gas chromatogram. However, once the charge oil becomes biodegraded, with the loss of n-alkanes and isoprenoids, the amount of oil is tracked by the quantification of the unresolved complex mixture (UCM). Gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC–MS) was also found to be very effective for the recognition of petroleum related hydrocarbons and results indicate that GC–MS would be a very effective tool for screening samples at concentrations below 50 ppm oil charge.     

Development of methods to collect and analyze gasoline range (C5–C12) hydrocarbons from seabed sediments as indicators of subsurface hydrocarbon generation and entrapment

Gasoline range hydrocarbons (C₅–C₁₂) are usually associated with petroleum generation, yet few surface geochemical surveys have attempted to evaluate the gasoline range hydrocarbons in near-surface marine sediments. This is due to the difficulty in capturing and analyzing this volatile range of hydrocarbons with minimum loss and evaporative fractionation. In this study, a Headspace Solid Phase Microextraction (HSPME) method was developed and evaluated for the purpose of capturing the gasoline range of hydrocarbons within unconsolidated sediment using a solventless protocol.     

Atmospheric Aerosol Characterization Over Naples During 2000–2003 EARLINET Project: Planetary Boundary-Layer Evolution and Layering

The evolution of the planetary boundary layer and the influence of local circulation phenomena over Naples (southern Italy, 40.838° N, 14.183° E, 118 m above sea level) have been studied by systematic lidar measurements of aerosol optical properties and vertical distributions carried out from May 2000 to August 2003, in the course of the EARLINET project. In particular, our data show the development of aerosol layers typically located in the range between 1,000 and 2,300 m, with variable thickness. The optical properties of the observed layers have been determined. In order to analyse the evolution of the planetary boundary layer, detailed observations of complete diurnal cycles have also been performed. The analysis of lidar measurements of vertical profiles of wind speed and wind direction and air mass back-trajectories allowed us to characterize the sea-breeze circulation influence on both the planetary boundary-layer evolution and the observed aerosol vertical distribution.     

How to improve the representation of hydrological processes in SWAT for a lowland catchment – temporal analysis of parameter sensitivity and model performance

Model diagnostic analyses help to improve the understanding of hydrological processes and their representation in hydrological models. A detailed temporal analysis detects periods of poor model performance and model components with potential for model improvements, which cannot be found by analysing the whole discharge time series. In this study, we aim to improve the understanding of hydrological processes by investigating the temporal dynamics of parameter sensitivity and of model performance for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model applied to the Treene lowland catchment in Northern Germany. The temporal analysis shows that the parameter sensitivity varies temporally with high sensitivity for three groundwater parameters (groundwater time delay, baseflow recession constant and aquifer fraction coefficient) and one evaporation parameter (soil evaporation compensation factor). Whereas the soil evaporation compensation factor dominates in baseflow and resaturation periods, groundwater time delay, baseflow recession constant and aquifer fraction coefficient are dominant in the peak and recession phases. The temporal analysis of model performance identifies three clusters with different model performances, which can be related to different phases of the hydrograph. The lowest performance, when comparing six performance measures, is detected for the baseflow cluster. A spatially distributed analysis for six hydrological stations within the Treene catchment shows similar results for all stations. The linkage of periods with poor model performance to the dominant model components in these phases and with the related hydrological processes shows that the groundwater module has the highest potential for improvement. This temporal diagnostic analysis enhances the understanding of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model and of the dominant hydrological processes in the lowland catchment. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on flood risk in Mumbai

Managing risks from extreme events will be a crucial component of climate change adaptation. In this study, we demonstrate an approach to assess future risks and quantify the benefits of adaptation options at a city-scale, with application to flood risk in Mumbai. In 2005, Mumbai experienced unprecedented flooding, causing direct economic damages estimated at almost two billion USD and 500 fatalities. Our findings suggest that by the 2080s, in a SRES A2 scenario, an ??upper bound?? climate scenario could see the likelihood of a 2005-like event more than double. We estimate that total losses (direct plus indirect) associated with a 1-in-100 year event could triple compared with current situation (to $690?C$1,890 million USD), due to climate change alone. Continued rapid urbanisation could further increase the risk level. The analysis also demonstrates that adaptation could significantly reduce future losses; for example, estimates suggest that by improving the drainage system in Mumbai, losses associated with a 1-in-100 year flood event today could be reduced by as much as 70%.,We show that assessing the indirect costs of extreme events is an important component of an adaptation assessment, both in ensuring the analysis captures the full economic benefits of adaptation and also identifying options that can help to manage indirect risks of disasters. For example, we show that by extending insurance to 100% penetration, the indirect effects of flooding could be almost halved. We conclude that, while this study explores only the upper-bound climate scenario, the risk-assessment core demonstrated in this study could form an important quantitative tool in developing city-scale adaptation strategies. We provide a discussion of sources of uncertainty and risk-based tools could be linked with decision-making approaches to inform adaptation plans that are robust to climate change.     

Solute transport scales in an unsaturated stony soil

Solute transport parameters are known to be scale-dependent due mainly to the increasing scale of heterogeneities with transport distance and with the lateral extent of the transport field examined. Based on a transect solute transport experiment, in this paper we studied this scale dependence by distinguishing three different scales with different homogeneity degrees of the porous medium: the observation scale, transport scale and transect scale. The main objective was to extend the approach proposed by van Wesenbeeck and Kachanoski to evaluating the role of textural heterogeneities on the transition from the observation scale to the transport scale. The approach is based on the scale dependence of transport moments estimated from solute concentrations distributions. In our study, these moments were calculated starting from time normalized resident concentrations measured by time domain reflectometry (TDR) probes at three depths in 37 soil sites 1 m apart along a transect during a steady state transport experiment. The Generalized Transfer Function (GTF) was used to describe the evolution of apparent solute spreading along the soil profile at each observation site by analyzing the propagation of the moments of the concentration distributions. Spectral analysis was used to quantify the relationship between the solid phase heterogeneities (namely, texture and stones) and the scale dependence of the solute transport parameters. Coupling the two approaches allowed us to identify two different transport scales (around 4-5 m and 20 m, respectively) mainly induced by the spatial pattern of soil textural properties. The analysis showed that the larger transport scale is mainly determined by the skeleton pattern of variability. Our analysis showed that the organization in hierarchical levels of soil variability may have major effects on the differences between solute transport behavior at transport scale and transect scale, as the transect scale parameters will include information from different scales of heterogeneities.     

Timescales and the role of inheritance in long-term landscape evolution,northern New England,Australia

Landscape evolution in northern New England is characterized by the persistence of landforms over long time periods. The topography in the study area was initiated by Paleozoic diapiric intrusion of granitic rocks as highs within metasedimentary and volcanic rocks. This framework was probably reinforced by differences in the resistance of the massive igneous and the fractured metasedimentary rocks to erosion. As a result, both the Tertiary and present-day relief of the area consists of uplands developed on granitic rocks partly overlain by Paleozoic volcanic rocks, and lowlands developed on Paleozoic metasediments. Extensive volcanism in the Tertiary had only a minimal effect on this relationship. A significant impact of Tertiary volcanism, however, was the diversion of major streams across topographic highs. Despite 19-35 Ma of incision, these streams are still far from establishing equilibrium profiles and dissecting the highs. The persistence of topography for a timescale of the same order of magnitude as that conventionally thought to be required for planation is due to reduced denudation rates in a passive tectonic setting and the presence of erosion-resistant Paleozoic igneous units. The latter influence is indicated by knickpoint persistence for 19-35 Ma on streams diverted across these rocks. Since it is generally considered that such disequilibria are short-lived features formed by Quaternary or ongoing deformation, this knickpoint persistence has important implications for landscape analyses that use disequilibria to assess recent tectonism in a landscape.     

Geomorphological study of the Fadalto landslide, Venetian Prealps, Italy

This research deals with the Fadalto landslide (Lapisina Valley, Venetian Prealps), which took place in the Lateglacial and has continued its activity until today. Our aim is to recognize how the landslide failed, the causes of such failure and the activity of this landslide. The study of this landslide is important not only to understand the geomorphological history of this alpine area, and why the Piave River modified its course in the Late Pleistocene, but also the links with human activities, and specifically with the road and rail network.The geomorphological study, carried out by the interpretation of aerial photos and by a detailed field survey, has been integrated with a geological survey, geophysical investigations and a morphometric analysis (DTM). The Fadalto landslide is considered to be a rockslide reactivated in various phases, with different dimensions and with different characters (slides, slumps and flows). The landslides have been provoked by natural causes, both external and internal; the fundamental external causes are the retreat of the Würmian glacier and tectonic activity; the internal factors that decrease the shear resistance are the bedding planes and joints of the bedrock, the attitude of the rocks dipping towards the valley bottom and, as regards more recent failures, the presence of glacial deposits underlying the landslide debris. Besides, in recent times, we must also consider human activity as a cause of slope instability.As to the activity, the Fadalto landslide is defined “dormant”. This means that in this area there is a geomorphological risk connected with the important road and rail network of the Lapisina Valley.