Global energy security under different climate policies,GDP growth rates and fossil resource availabilities

Energy security is one of the main drivers of energy policies. Understanding energy security implications of long-term scenarios is crucial for informed policy making, especially with respect to transformations of energy systems required to stabilize climate change. This paper evaluates energy security under several global energy scenarios, modeled in the REMIND and WITCH integrated assessment models. The paper examines the effects of long-term climate policies on energy security under different assumptions about GDP growth and fossil fuel availability. It uses a systematic energy security assessment framework and a set of global and regional indicators for risks associated with energy trade and resilience associated with diversity of energy options. The analysis shows that climate policies significantly reduce the risks and increase the resilience of energy systems in the first half of the century. Climate policies also make energy supply, energy mix, and energy trade less dependent upon assumptions of fossil resource availability and GDP growth, and thus more predictable than in the baseline scenarios.     

Gravity field error analysis for pendulum formations by a semi-analytical approach

Many geoscience disciplines push for ever higher requirements on accuracy, homogeneity and time- and space-resolution of the Earth’s gravity field. Apart from better instruments or new observables, alternative satellite formations could improve the signal and error structure compared to Grace. One possibility to increase the sensitivity and isotropy by adding cross-track information is a pair of satellites flying in a pendulum formation. This formation contains two satellites which have different ascending nodes and arguments of latitude, but have the same orbital height and inclination. In this study, the semi-analytical approach for efficient pre-mission error assessment is presented, and the transfer coefficients of range, range-rate and range-acceleration gravitational perturbations are derived analytically for the pendulum formation considering a set of opening angles. The new challenge is the time variations of the opening angle and the range, leading to temporally variable transfer coefficients. This is solved by Fourier expansion of the sine/cosine of the opening angle and the central angle. The transfer coefficients are further applied to assess the error patterns which are caused by different orbital parameters. The simulation results indicate that a significant improvement in accuracy and isotropy is obtained for small and medium initial opening angles of single polar pendulums, compared to Grace. The optimal initial opening angles are \(45^\circ \) and \(15^\circ \) for accuracy and isotropy, respectively. For a Bender configuration, which is constituted by a polar Grace and an inclined pendulum in this paper, the behaviour of results is dependent on the inclination (prograde vs. retrograde) and on the relative baseline orientation (left or right leading). The simulation for a sun-synchronous orbit shows better results for the left leading case.     

Hydrogeological controls of variable microbial water quality in a complex subtropical karst system in Northern Vietnam

Karst aquifers are particularly vulnerable to bacterial contamination. Especially in developing countries, poor microbial water quality poses a threat to human health. In order to develop effective groundwater protection strategies, a profound understanding of the hydrogeological setting is crucial. The goal of this study was to elucidate the relationships between high spatio-temporal variability in microbial contamination and the hydrogeological conditions. Based on extensive field studies, including mapping, tracer tests and hydrochemical analyses, a conceptual hydrogeological model was developed for a remote and geologically complex karst area in Northern Vietnam called Dong Van. Four different physicochemical water types were identified; the most important ones correspond to the karstified Bac Son and the fractured Na Quan aquifer. Alongside comprehensive investigation of the local hydrogeology, water quality was evaluated by analysis for three types of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB): Escherichia coli, enterococci and thermotolerant coliforms. The major findings are: (1) Springs from the Bac Son formation displayed the highest microbial contamination, while (2) springs that are involved in a polje series with connections to sinking streams were distinctly more contaminated than springs with a catchment area characterized by a more diffuse infiltration. (3) FIB concentrations are dependent on the season, with higher values under wet season conditions. Furthermore, (4) the type of spring capture also affects the water quality. Nevertheless, all studied springs were faecally impacted, along with several shallow wells within the confined karst aquifer. Based on these findings, effective protection strategies can be developed to improve groundwater quality.     

Spatial and temporal dynamics of suspended particles and E. coli in a complex surface-water and karst groundwater system as a basis for an adapted water protection scheme,northern Vietnam

Karst aquifers in subtropical regions are characterized by high variability of water availability and quality due to changes associated with rainy and dry seasons. An additional challenge for water management is the combination of surface-water and karst groundwater systems since high spatiotemporal dynamics cause high variability of water quality. In these cases, adapted protection strategies are required. In this study, a protection approach for the catchment of a river-water diversion point in a rural area in northern Vietnam is developed. The variability of water quality was evaluated by rainy and dry season synoptic surveys of suspended particles and microbial contamination at 49 sites and time series at three sets of paired sites under constant hydraulic conditions. The anthropogenic land-use activities in the catchment were mapped to identify potential contamination sources and to highlight the challenging combination of surface-water and karst groundwater management. The analyzed data indicate differences in water quality between the dry and rainy seasons and a higher influence on water quality from land use than from hydrologic conditions. Furthermore, the results suggest a high risk of contamination resulting from residential areas, agriculture, and livestock farming, and reveal the necessity of implementation of appropriate measures such as restricted farming and the hook-up of buildings to municipal sewage disposal. Finally, the data show that water quality can be improved by adjusting water withdrawals by the time of day. The applied methods can be transferred to other surface-water and karst groundwater systems in similar subtropical environments.

     

Solute and colloid transport in karst conduits under low- and high-flow conditions

Solute and colloid transport in karst aquifers under low and high flows was investigated by tracer tests using fluorescent dyes (uranine) and microspheres of the size of pathogenic bacteria (1 microm) and Cryptosporidium cysts (5 microm), which were injected into a cave stream and sampled at a spring 2.5 km away. The two types of microspheres were analyzed using an epifluorescence microscope or a novel fluorescence particle counter, respectively. Uranine breakthrough curves (BTCs) were regular shaped and recovery approached 100%. Microsphere recoveries ranged between 27% and 75%. During low flow, the 1-microm spheres displayed an irregular BTC preceding the uranine peak. Only a very few 5-microm spheres were recovered. During high flow, the 1-microm-sphere BTC was regular and more similar to the uranine curve. BTCs were modeled analytically with CXTFIT using a conventional advection dispersion model (ADM) and a two-region nonequilibrium model (2RNE). The results show that (1) colloids travel at higher velocities than solutes during low flow; (2) colloids and solutes travel at similar velocities during high flow; (3) higher maximum concentrations occur during high flow; and (4) the 2RNE achieves a better fit, while the ADM is more robust, as it requires less parameters.     

Comparison of methods for a 3-D density inversion from airborne gravity gradiometry

In this study, we apply Tikhonov’s regularization algorithm for a 3-D density inversion from the gravity-gradiometry data. To reduce the non-uniqueness of the inverse solution (carried out without additional information from geological evidence), we implement the depth-weighting empirical function. However, the application of an empirical function in the inversion equation brings the bias problem of the regularization factor when a traditional Tikhonov’s algorithm is applied. To solve the bias problem of regularization factor selection, we present a standardized solution that comprises two parts for solving a 3-D constrained inversion equation, specifically the linear matrix transformation and Tikhonov’s regularization algorithm. Since traditional regularization techniques become numerically inefficient when dealing with large number of data, we further apply methods which include the Simultaneous Iterative Reconstruction Technique (SIRT) and the wavelet compression combined with Least Squares QR-decomposition (LSQR). In our simulation study, we demonstrate that SIRT as well as the wavelet compression plus LSQR algorithm improve the computation efficiency, while provide results which closely agree with that obtained from applying Tikhonov’s regularization. In particular, the algorithm of wavelet compression plus LSQR shows the best computing efficiency, because it combines the advantages of coefficients compression of big matrix and fast solution of sparse matrix. Similar findings are confirmed from the vertical gravity gradient data inversion for detecting potential deposits at the Kauring (near Perth, Western Australia) testing site.     

On the influence of the ground track on the gravity field recovery from high–low satellite-to-satellite tracking missions: CHAMP monthly gravity field recovery using the energy balance approach revisited

In this paper, the influence of the ground track coverage on the quality of a monthly gravity field solution is investigated for the scenario of a high–low satellite- to-satellite tracking mission. Data from the CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload (champ) mission collected in the period April 2002 to February 2004 has been used to recover the gravity field to degree and order 70 on a monthly basis. The quality is primarily restricted by the accuracy of the instruments. Besides, champ passed through a 31/2 repeat mode three times during the period of interest resulting in an insufficient spatial sampling and a degraded solution. Contrary to the rule of thumb by Colombo (The global mapping of gravity with two satellites, Publications on Geodesy, vol 7(3), Netherlands Geodetic Commission, The Netherlands, 263 pp, 1984), see also Wagner (J Geod 80(2): 94–103, 2006), we found that the monthly solutions themselves could be recovered to about degree 30, not 15. In order to improve the monthly gravity solutions, two strategies have been developed: the restriction to a low degree, and the densification of the sampling by the introduction of additional sensitive measurements from contemporaneous satellite missions. The latter method is tested by combining the champ measurements with data from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (grace). Note that the two grace satellites are considered independent here, i.e. no use is made of the K-band ranging data. This way, we are able to almost entirely remove the influence of the ground track leaving the accuracy of the instruments as the primary restriction on the quality of a monthly solution. These findings are especially interesting for the upcoming swarm-mission since it will consist of a similar configuration as the combined champ and (grace) missions.     

Evaluating the reliability of time series analysis to estimate variable riparian travel times by numerical groundwater modelling

The transition zones between rivers and adjacent riparian aquifers are locations of high biogeochemical activities that contribute to a removal of potentially hazardous substances in the aquatic system. The potential of the removal processes depends highly on subsurface water travel times, which can be determined by using the propagation of electrical conductivity (EC) signal from the river into the riparian aquifer. Although this method has been applied and verified in many studies, we observe possible limitations for the usage of EC fluctuation analysis. Our findings are based on EC time series analyses during storm events and artificial hydropeaks induced by watermill operations. Travel times derived by cross‐correlation analysis were compared with travel times calculated based on backward particle tracking of a calibrated transient numerical groundwater flow model. The cross‐correlation method produced only reasonable travel times for the artificial hydropeaks. In contrast, cross‐correlation analysis of the EC data during natural storm events resulted in implausibly negative or unrealistically low travel times for the bulk of the data sets. We conclude that the reason for this behaviour is, first, the low EC contrast between river and groundwater in connection with a strong damping of the infiltrating river EC signal into the subsurface during storm events. Second, the existence of old and less‐mineralized riparian water between the river and the monitoring well resulted in bank‐storage‐driven EC breakthrough curves with earlier arrival times and the subsequent estimation of implausible riparian travel times.     

Global analysis of land-use changes in karst areas and the implications for water resources

Karst areas contain valuable groundwater resources and high biodiversity, but are particularly vulnerable to climate change and human impacts. Land-use change is the cause and consequence of global environmental change. The releases of the Climate Change Initiative-Land Cover (CCI-LC) and World Karst Aquifer Map (WOKAM) datasets have made it possible to explore global land-use changes in karst areas. This paper firstly analyses the global karst land-use distribution in 2020, as well as the land-use transition characteristics between 1992 and 2020. Then, two indicators, proportion of land-use change and dominant type of land-use change, are proposed to identify the spatial characteristics of land-use change in global karst areas. Finally, three examples of land-use change in karst areas are analyzed in detail. Land-use types and proportions of the global karst areas from large to small are as follows: forest (31.78%), bare area (27.58%), cropland (19.02%), grassland (10.87%), shrubland (7.21%), wetland (1.67%), ice and snow (1.16%) and urban (0.71%). The total area of global karst land-use change is 1.30 million km², about 4.85% of global karst surface. The land-use change trend of global karst is dominated by afforestation, supplemented by scattered urbanization and agricultural reclamation. The tropical climate has a higher intensity of land-use change. Regions of agricultural reclamation are highly consistent with the population density. These results reflect the impact of human activities and climate change on land-use changes in global karst areas, and serve as a basis for further research and planning of land resource management.