Statistical tools for maximum possible earthquake magnitude estimation

Several procedures for the statistical estimation of the region-characteristic maximum possible earthquake magnitude, m _max, are currently available. This paper aims to introduce and compare the 12 existing procedures. For each of the procedures given, there are notes on its origin, assumptions made in its derivation, condition for validity, weak and strong points, etc. The applicability of each particular procedure is determined by the assumptions of the model and/or the available information on seismicity of the area.     

Stability evaluation of hill cut slopes along national highway-13 near Hospet,Karnataka, India

The road networks are backbone of a nation for the economic growth and safe communication. A shortest road design shall always be encouraged, but in hilly terrain, railway crossings and road crossings are constraints for the highway designers. The same problem was faced while planning a new design of National Highway-13 near the Hospet city in Karnataka, India. To resolve that problem, a twin tunnel was proposed to overcome steep gradient, sharp curve and a railway crossing. The field investigation was carried out to measure the joint parameters, lithology and ground water condition to establish the tunnel and tunnel portal stability along with hill cuttings. In the present study, the basic rock mass rating (RMR_Basic) and continuous slope mass rating (CSMR) of the slope outside tunnel portal were computed based on the field investigation for different rocks of Sandur schist belt viz. metabasics, phyllite/chlorite schist and banded iron formation. The support measures were proposed based on the computed CSMR.     

El Niño Modoki connection to extremely-low streamflow of the Paranaíba River in Brazil

Extremely-low discharge events of the Paranaíba River basin during the austral summer season (December–February, DJF), are found to be associated with the Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies resembling the recently identified El Niño Modoki phenomenon. Extreme discharge events are identified based on their persistent flow for 7 days and more after taking retention time into consideration. Ninety percent of the extremely low discharge events during peak streamflow seasons of DJF, are found to occur during the El Niño Modoki years. A diagnostics study of atmospheric anomalies has shown a clear connection between the modified Walker circulation, associated with the El Niño Modoki, and the precipitation anomalies over the Paranaíba River basin. The climate variations have direct relationship with the rainfall. Streamflow variations are considered as the surrogates to rainfalls. Thus, El Niño Modoki phase is important component to understand and predict the streamflow variations in the Paranaíba River basin.     

Eddy fluxes and sensitivity of the water cycle to spatial resolution in idealized regional aquaplanet model simulations

A multi-scale moisture budget analysis is used to identify the mechanisms responsible for the sensitivity of the water cycle to spatial resolution using idealized regional aquaplanet simulations. In the higher resolution simulations, moisture transport by eddy fluxes dry the boundary layer enhancing evaporation and precipitation. This effect of eddies, which is underestimated by the physics parameterizations in the low-resolution simulations, is found to be responsible for the sensitivity of the water cycle both directly, and through its upscale effects on the transport of mean moisture by the mean circulation. Correlations among moisture transport by eddies at adjacent ranges of scales provides a potential for reducing this sensitivity by representing the unresolved eddies by their marginally resolved counterparts.     

Assessing future changes in seasonal climatic extremes in the Ganges river basin using an ensemble of regional climate models

Using an ensemble of four high resolution (~25 km) regional climate models, this study analyses the future (2021–2050) spatial distribution of seasonal temperature and precipitation extremes in the Ganges river basin based on the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The model validation results (1989–2008) show that the models simulate seasonality and spatial distribution of extreme temperature events better than precipitation. The models are able to capture fine topographical detail in the spatial distribution of indices based on their ability to resolve processes at a higher regional resolution. Future simulations of extreme temperature indices generally agree with expected warming in the Ganges basin, with considerable seasonal and spatial variation. Significantly warmer summers in the central part of the basin along with basin-wide increase in night temperature are expected during the summer and monsoon months. An increase in heavy precipitation indices during monsoon, coupled with extended periods without precipitation during the winter months; indicates an increase in the incidence of extreme events.     

Predicting Wheat Grain and Biomass Yield Using Canopy Reflectance of Booting Stage

Field experiment was conducted in a sandy loam soil of Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi during the year 2011–13 to see the effect of irrigation, mulch and nitrogen on canopy spectral reflectance indices and their use in predicting the grain and biomass yield of wheat. The canopy reflectances were measured using a hand held ASD FieldSpec Spectroradiometer at booting stage of wheat. Four spectral reflectance indices (SRIs) viz. RNDVI (Red Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), GNDVI (Green Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), SR (Simple Ratio) and WI (Water Index) were computed using the spectral reflectance data. Out of these four indices, RNDVI, GNDVI and SR were significantly and positively related with the grain and biomass yield of wheat whereas WI was significantly and negatively related with the grain and biomass yield of wheat. Calibration with the second year data showed that among the SRIs, WI could account for respectively, 85 % and 86 % variation in grain and biomass yield of wheat with least RMSE (395 kg ha^?1 (15 %) for grain yield and 1609 kg ha^?1 (20 %) for biomass yield) and highest d index (0.95 for grain yield and 0.91 for biomass yield). Therefore it can be concluded that WI measured at booting stage can be successfully used for prediction of grain and biomass yield of wheat.     

Tree ring inferred summer temperature variations over the last millennium in western Himalaya, India

We report the first millennium-long reconstruction of mean summer (May–June–July–August) temperature extending back to AD 940 derived from tree-ring width data of Himalayan pencil juniper (Juniperus polycarpos C. Koch) from the monsoon-shadow zone in the western Himalaya, India. Centennial-scale variations in the reconstruction reveal periods of protracted warmth encompassing the 11–15th centuries. A decreasing trend in mean summer temperature occurred since the 15th century with the 18–19th centuries being the coldest interval of the last millennium, coinciding with the expansion of glaciers in the western Himalaya. Since the late 19th century summer temperatures increased again. However, current warming may be underestimated due to a weakening in tree growth-temperature relationship noticeable in the latter part of the 20th century. Mean summer temperature over the western Himalaya shows a positive correlation with summer monsoon intensity over north central India. Low-frequency variations in mean summer temperature anomalies over northwestern India are consistent with tree-ring inferred aridity in western North America. These far-distance linkages reported here for the first time underscore the utility of long-term temperature records from the western Himalayan region in understanding global-scale climatic patterns.