A comparison between cokriging and ordinary kriging: Case study with a polymetallic deposit

Cokriging is applied to the estimation of mineral resources in a polymetallic deposit. Several major steps, which should be taken in using cokriging, are highlighted as necessary practical considerations. The case study is related to an ultramafic copper-nickel deposit. Six elements, Cu, Ni, Au, Ag, Pt, and Pd, occurring in the deposit, are partitioned into three subgroups and the elements within each group are simultaneously estimated on the basis of over 4000 drill assays. A comparison was made between ordinary kriging and cokriging methods through cross-validation. The results show that cokriging has significantly improved the estimates of resources by reducing the overall estimation error by over 15% and the variance of error by over 20%.     

Water quality condition and trend in North Queensland waterways

The Queensland Environmental Protection Agency monitored water quality at 133 sites in North Queensland waterways between Cooktown and Bundaburg from 1992 to 2001. Condition of the waterways was rated by comparing recent data with the Queensland Water Quality Guidelines. Long-term trends were analysed using a censored regression technique that incorporates the effects of flow, temperature, seasonality and allows for long-term non-linear trends. Many sites were in good condition; those in poor condition were usually impacted by point source discharges; those in moderate condition were usually impacted by agricultural land use. There were no consistent long-term trends across the whole region. Recommendations for future programs include incorporating pressure indicators, ensuring high standards of quality assurance, including covariates such as rainfall in trend assessment and continuing programs over more than 10 years to allow detection of trends due to changes in land-use.     

A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities

In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario “thread” through the different climate research communities (climate change – vulnerability, impact, and adaptation - and mitigation) in order to support assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impacts. The scenario framework is organized around a matrix with two main axes: radiative forcing levels and socio-economic conditions. The radiative forcing levels (and the associated climate signal) are described by the new Representative Concentration Pathways. The second axis, socio-economic developments comprises elements that affect the capacity for mitigation and adaptation, as well as the exposure to climate impacts. The proposed scenarios derived from this framework are limited in number, allow for comparison across various mitigation and adaptation levels, address a range of vulnerability characteristics, provide information across climate forcing and vulnerability states and span a full century time scale. Assessments based on the proposed scenario framework would strengthen cooperation between integrated-assessment modelers, climate modelers and vulnerability, impact and adaptation researchers, and most importantly, facilitate the development of more consistent and comparable research within and across these research communities.     

Grand Minima of Solar Activity and the Mean-Field Dynamo

We demonstrate that a simple solar dynamo model, in the form of a Parker migratory dynamo with random fluctuations of the dynamo governing parameters and algebraic saturation of dynamo action, can at least qualitatively reproduce all the basic features of solar Grand Minima as they are known from direct and indirect data. In particular, the model successfully reproduces such features as an abrupt transition into a Grand Minimum and the subsequent gradual recovery of solar activity, as well as mixed-parity butterfly diagrams during the epoch of the Grand Minimum. The model predicts that the cycle survives in some form during a Grand Minimum, as well as the relative stability of the cycle inside and outside of a Grand Minimum. The long-term statistics of simulated Grand Minima appears compatible with the phenomenology of the Grand Minima inferred from the cosmogenic isotope data. We demonstrate that such ability to reproduce the Grand Minima phenomenology is not a general feature of the dynamo models but requires some specific assumption, such as random fluctuations in dynamo governing parameters. In general, we conclude that a relatively simple and straightforward model is able to reproduce the Grand Minima phenomenology remarkably well, in principle providing us with a possibility of studying the physical nature of Grand Minima.     

Parity fluctuations in stellar dynamos

Observations of the solar butterfly diagram from sunspot records suggest persistent fluctuations in parity, away from the overall, approximately dipolar pattern. A simple mean-field dynamo model is used with a solar-like rotation law and perturbed α effect. The parity of the magnetic field relative to the rotational equator can demonstrate can be described as resonance behavior, while the magnetic energy behaves in a more or less expected way. Possible applications of this effect are discussed in the context of various deviations of the solar magnetic field from dipolar symmetry, as reported from analyses of archival sunspot data. The model produces fluctuations in field parity, and hence in the butterfly diagram, that are consistent with observed fluctuaions in solar behavior.     

Simple laminar dynamos: from two rolls to one

The study of laminar flows with simple streamlines in conducting fluids that might support kinematic dynamo action has a long history. Early successful examples include the Gailitis (1970 Gailitis, A. 1970. Self-excitation of a magnetic field by a pair of annular vortices. Mag. Gidrod, 6: 19–22. (English translation: Magnetohydrodynamics, 6:14–17) [Google Scholar]) dynamo, which has two meridional rolls. We show here that a single meridional roll, considered as a limit of a modified Gailitis-like dynamo, can also support kinematic dynamo action in a deep spherical shell. This flow has a claim to be the simplest such flow possible.     

Stellar Dynamo Waves: Asymptotic Configurations

We investigate the parameter space of a Parker dynamo with a simple alpha quenching nonlinearity, taking as governing parameters the dynamo number D (D<0) and the ratio of diffusion times in the radial and latitudinal directions in the convective zone. The latter parameter, μ, is connected with the aspect ratio (dimensionless thickness) of the convective zone. We isolate two asymptotic configuration of the dynamo waves excited by the Parker dynamo in the limiting case of strong generation. Apart from the standard case with the solar type dynamo wave travelling from mid-latitudes to the equator, we describe a form of dynamo activity which is basically an anharmonic standing wave. The first situation occurs when μ increases with |D|. With μ fixed and |D| increasing, the second asymptotic configuration occurs. We discuss possibilities of identifying these asymptotic configurations with various types of stellar activity as traced by stellar CaII data.