The survey of climatic drought trend in Iran

Drought is one of the most important natural hazards in Iran. Therefore, drought monitoring has become a point of concern for most of the researchers. In the present study, the changes and trend of drought was surveyed, under the current global climate changes, by non parametric Mann–Kendall statistical test for 42 synoptic stations at different places of Iran. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was calculated to recognize the drought condition at different time scales (3, 6, 9, 12, 18 and 24 months’ time series) for analyzing the drought trend in the recent 30 years. The obtained results have indicated a significant negative trend of drought in many parts of Iran, especially the South-East, West and South-West regions of the country. According to the results, although some parts of Iran such as North (around the Caspian Sea) and Northeast show no significant trend but in other parts of country, the severity of drought has increased during the last 30 years.     

Post-2012 CDM multi-criteria analysis of industries in six Asian countries: Iranian case study

The prospects of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and for carbon income, up to and beyond 2012, in the industrial sectors of Iran and five other Asian countries are investigated. The attractiveness and suitability of each host country, the status of their industrial sectors (based on four post-2012 scenarios), and the post-2012 potential of the CDM (or similar carbon projects) in these sectors are all examined. A multi-criteria analysis of Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, China, and India, based on seven sets of criteria (institutional, regulatory, economic, political, social, CDM experience, and energy production/consumption), is conducted, and the post-2012 potential carbon incomes of each country – based on CO₂e emissions of industrial processes – are calculated. Finally, the Iranian industrial sector and the impact of deregulation of energy prices are examined. The post-2012 potential savings in the Iranian industrial sector are calculated based on energy savings, carbon income, and environmental savings. The results indicate that there is strong demand for investment and new technology in this sector to combat several-fold energy price increases. Moreover, high-priced carbon credits could play a meaningful role in post-2012 energy policies in this sector.

Policy relevance

This research is the first study to quantify the carbon market potentials in the industrial sectors of the selected Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) members. The Kyoto Protocol is considered by most OPEC countries to be a mixed bag of threats and opportunities and they have shown ambivalence towards it, mainly due to the threat a reduction of fossil fuel consumption poses to their economies. On the other hand, energy efficiency is a desirable goal for their industrial sectors. Iran, as an OPEC member country with vast energy resources, has mostly ignored the CDM during the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol and has performed poorly on CDM implementation. However, the current deregulation of energy prices in Iran, with profound cuts in energy subsidies, would definitely alter the perspective of its industrial decision makers on the post-2012 carbon potentials.     

Non-Poisson probabilistic seismic hazard assessment

The development of the new seismic hazard map of metropolitan Tehran is based on probabilistic seismic hazard computation using the non-Poisson recurrence time model. For this model, two maps have been prepared to indicate the earthquake hazard of the region in the form of iso-acceleration contour lines. They display the non-Poisson probabilistic estimates of peak ground accelerations over bedrock for 10 and 63 % probability of exceedance in 50 years. To carry out the non-Poisson seismic hazard analysis, appropriate distributions of interoccurrence times of earthquakes were used for the seismotectonic provinces which the study region is located and then the renewal process was applied. In order to calculate the seismic hazard for different return periods in the probabilistic procedure, the study area encompassed by the 49.5–54.5°E longitudes and 34–37°N latitudes was divided into 0.1° intervals generating 1,350 grid points. PGA values for this region are estimated to be 0.30–0.32 and 0.16–0.17 g for 10 and 63 % probability of exceedance, respectively, in 50 years for bedrock condition.     

Investigating the capability of deformation rate analysis method in stress estimation: a case study of water conveyance tunnel of Gotvand Dam

Knowledge of the magnitude and orientation of the initial in situ stress of rock mass in underground spaces in mining, construction, and oil projects are so vital; hence, putting it aside could not only cost a lot rather incur some irrecoverable damage. Various methods are available to estimate in situ stress in rock mass. However, the most commonly used one, i.e., hydraulic fracturing (HF) method is considered expensive and time consuming. As a matter of fact, laboratory methods based on drilled “core” have become prevalent these days considering them simple, cheap, and quick. Taking into account one such procedure, i.e., deformation rate analysis (DRA), the current research tries to review the DRA capability in determining the magnitude of initial in situ stress is in different parts of stress–strain curve. Further, an investigation was made about the usage of DRA method for both brittle and ductile rocks. To compare the DRA and hydraulic fracturing methods in in situ stress measurement, the water conveyance tunnel of Gotvand Dam was selected as a case study. The DRA tests were conducted on core samples prepared from blocks of tuff (as brittle) and soft sandstones (as ductile) from shallow quarry. The results show that the DRA method is suitable for all types of intact rock and that this could easily estimate in situ stress values. A comparison between in situ stress values obtained by DRA and those of HF method show the feasibility of geotechnical project, simplicity, speed, and low cost.     

Geohazards analysis of Pisa tunnel in a fractured incompetent rocks in Zagros Mountains, Iran

The Pisa 2 tunnel with 740 m in length and 20° N trend is located along the Kazerun fault zone in Simply Folded Belt of Zagros, Iran. This tunnel has been excavated in the fractured incompetent marl layers with high expansive pressure of up to 2 kg/cm². In this study, the geological hazards along the tunnel have been recognized and categorized. This study revealed that, in the long-term usage of the tunnel, the lining did not endure against the loading and the secondary leakages. It is mainly attributed due to the non-efficiencies of drainage and isolation systems in the tunnel site. Therefore, it caused asphalt damage, drainage damage, and wall distortion. FLAC^3D software has been used in this research. We conducted various analyses for pre-excavation stress states, syn-excavation, and post-excavation strain states. The results showed no indication of instability and critical deformations during the excavation time. It also revealed that due to the non-efficiencies of drainage and isolation systems against secondary leakages and consequently marl expansion, the volumetric and shear strains (i.e., expansions and displacements) have exceeded from the critical states of strain along the tunnel. For various remedy purpose, this paper attempted several measures that can be taken in order to modify the drainage and isolation systems along the tunnel area. The reconstruction of drainage systems with suitable reinforced concrete and adequate slope has been proposed. The width of channel and isolation of backside of lining and implementation of multi-order outlets (i.e., backside of lining) for draining of groundwater into where the main drainage systems are located in the tunnel gallery were suggested.     

High-K calc-alkaline plutonism in Zouzan, NE of Lut block, Eastern Iran: An evidence for arc related magmatism in Cenozoic

The Zouzan pluton is one of the intrusive bodies in the NE of Lut block enclosed by Cenozoic volcanic and sedimentary rocks. It consists of two distinct mafic and felsic magmas which are genetically unrelated. All studied rocks are calc-alkaline in nature, with LILE/REE and HFSE/REE ratios compatible with arc related magmatism. Mafic phase has dioritic composition emplaced as small stocks in felsic rocks. Geochemical characteristics in dioritic rocks (relatively high contents of incompatible elements, low Na₂O and Mg#>44) suggest they were derived from partial melting of metabasalt sources in a subduction settings. Felsic phase composed of granodiorite to granite rocks with high-K calcalkaline metaluminous to slightly peraluminous signature. Major and trace element data exclude high pressure melting and metasedimentary parental in the formation of Zouzan felsic rocks. They have been formed by partial melting of mantle-derived mafic rocks. Field relation, petrographical evidences and chemical composition show that partial melting of a mantle wedge in conjunction with magma mixing and crystal fractionation would have led to generation of Zouzan pluton.     

Automatic Method for Identifying Photospheric Bright Points and Granules Observed by Sunrise

In this study, we propose methods for the automatic detection of photospheric features (bright points and granules) from ultra-violet (UV) radiation, using a feature-based classifier. The methods use quiet-Sun observations at 214 nm and 525 nm images taken by Sunrise on 9 June 2009. The function of region growing and mean shift procedure are applied to segment the bright points (BPs) and granules, respectively. Zernike moments of each region are computed. The Zernike moments of BPs, granules, and other features are distinctive enough to be separated using a support vector machine (SVM) classifier. The size distribution of BPs can be fitted with a power-law slope ?1.5. The peak value of granule sizes is found to be about 0.5 arcsec². The mean value of the filling factor of BPs is 0.01, and for granules it is 0.51. There is a critical scale for granules so that small granules with sizes smaller than 2.5 arcsec² cover a wide range of brightness, while the brightness of large granules approaches unity. The mean value of BP brightness fluctuations is estimated to be 1.2, while for granules it is 0.22. Mean values of the horizontal velocities of an individual BP and an individual BP within the network were found to be 1.6 km?s^?1 and 0.9 km?s^?1, respectively. We conclude that the effect of individual BPs in releasing energy to the photosphere and maybe the upper layers is stronger than what the individual BPs release into the network.     

Comparison of different gravity field implied density models of the topography

Density within the Earth crust varies between 1.0 and 3.0 g/cm³. The Bouguer gravity field measured in south Iran is analyzed using four different regional-residual separation techniques to obtain a residual map of the gravity field suitable for density modeling of topography. A density model of topography with radial and lateral distribution of density is required for an accurate determination of the geoid, e.g., in the Stokes-Helmert approach. The apparent density mapping technique is used to convert the four residual Bouguer anomaly fields into the corresponding four gravity im-plied subsurface density (GRADEN) models. Although all four density models showed good correlation with the geological density (GEODEN) model of the region, the GRADEN models obtained by high-pass filter-ing and GGM high-pass filtering show better numerical correlation with GEODEN model than the other models.     

Slow-Mode Oscillations and Damping of Hot Solar Coronal Loops

The effect of temperature inhomogeneity on the periods, their ratios (fundamental versus first overtone), and the damping times of the standing slow modes in gravitationally stratified solar coronal loops are studied. The effects of optically thin radiation, compressive viscosity, and thermal conduction are considered. The linearized one-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations (under low-?? condition) were reduced to a fourth-order ordinary differential equation for the perturbed velocity. The numerical results indicate that the periods of nonisothermal loops (i.e., temperature increases from the loop base to apex) are smaller compared to those of isothermal loops. In the presence of radiation, viscosity, and thermal conduction, an increase in the temperature gradient is followed by a monotonic decrease in the periods (compared with the isothermal case), while the period ratio turns out to be a sensitive function of the temperature gradient and the loop lengths. We verify that radiative dissipation is not a main cooling mechanism in both isothermal and nonisothermal hot coronal loops and has a small effect on the periods. Thermal conduction and compressive viscosity are primary mechanisms in the damping of slow modes of the hot coronal loops. The periods and damping times in the presence of compressive viscosity and/or thermal conduction dissipation are consistent with the observed data in specific cases. By tuning the dissipation parameters, the periods and the damping times could be made consistent with the observations in more general cases.