Forecasting annual precipitation to improve the operation of dams in the Comahue region,Argentina

ABSTRACT

This paper attempts to design statistical models to forecast annual precipitation in the Neuquen and Limay river basins in the Comahue region of Argentina. These forecasts are especially useful as they are used to better organize the operation of hydro-electric dams, the agriculture in irrigated valleys and the safety of the population. In this work, multiple linear regression statistical models are built to forecast mean annual rainfall over the two river basins. Since the maximum precipitation occurs in the winter (June–August), forecasting models have been developed for the beginning of March and for the beginning of June, just before the rainy season starts. The results show that the sea-surface temperatures of the Indian and Pacific oceans are good predictors for March models and explain 42.8% of the precipitation index variance. The efficiency of the models increases in June, adding more predictors related to the autumn circulation.     

Thermal behaviour of β-anhydrite CaSO<Subscript>4</Subscript> to 1,263 K

The thermal behaviour of β-anhydrite CaSO₄ has been investigated to 1,263 K in-situ real-time using laboratory parallel-beam X-ray powder diffraction data. The cell parameters expanded anisotropically, the c axis being the “softest”. This behaviour is due to the deformation of the CaO₈ polyhedron. In fact the two longest, independent, Ca–O bond distances show a significant component along the z direction.     

Susceptibility to oxidative stress of mussels (Mytilus galloprovincialis) in the Venice Lagoon (Italy)

The aim of this study was to evaluate the susceptibility to pollutant mediated oxidative stress of the Mediterranean mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis in the Venice lagoon (Italy).

In June 2003, mussels from a farm were transplanted to eight sites in the lagoon for five weeks. Oxidative stress responses were measured by: (i) total oxyradical scavenging capacity (TOSC) assay, for an overall evaluation of the oxidative stress response capability; (ii) catalase (CAT), as a key enzyme involved in the antioxidant defence system; (iii) malondialdehyde (MDA), as an indicator of lipid peroxidation, to evaluate an oxidative damage; (iv) metallothioneins (MTs), as they play a role in the antioxidant defence.

The TOSC analysis revealed a reduced capability to eliminate: (i) peroxyl radical in mussels transplanted at Palude della Rosa, Valle Millecampi and Chioggia; (ii) hydroxyl radical at Campalto and Valle Millecampi; (iii) peroxynitrite at Valle Millecampi.

Inhibition in CAT activity, observed in all the monitored sites, confirms the presence of an oxidative pressure in transplanted mussels.

In addition, Pearson correlation analysis was performed in order to observe possible links between the various parameters. The PCA was a powerful tool to discriminate impacted sites, suggesting that the mussels transplanted throughout the Venice lagoon were subjected to different levels of oxidative pressure. Furthermore, it provided an easy and useful tool to summarize the obtained results.     

Global and regional ocean carbon uptake and climate change: sensitivity to a substantial mitigation scenario

Under future scenarios of business-as-usual emissions, the ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon is anticipated to decrease because of ocean chemistry constraints and positive feedbacks in the carbon-climate dynamics, whereas it is still unknown how the oceanic carbon cycle will respond to more substantial mitigation scenarios. To evaluate the natural system response to prescribed atmospheric ??target?? concentrations and assess the response of the ocean carbon pool to these values, 2 centennial projection simulations have been performed with an Earth System Model that includes a fully coupled carbon cycle, forced in one case with a mitigation scenario and the other with the SRES A1B scenario. End of century ocean uptake with the mitigation scenario is projected to return to the same magnitude of carbon fluxes as simulated in 1960 in the Pacific Ocean and to lower values in the Atlantic. With A1B, the major ocean basins are instead projected to decrease the capacity for carbon uptake globally as found with simpler carbon cycle models, while at the regional level the response is contrasting. The model indicates that the equatorial Pacific may increase the carbon uptake rates in both scenarios, owing to enhancement of the biological carbon pump evidenced by an increase in Net Community Production (NCP) following changes in the subsurface equatorial circulation and enhanced iron availability from extratropical regions. NCP is a proxy of the bulk organic carbon made available to the higher trophic levels and potentially exportable from the surface layers. The model results indicate that, besides the localized increase in the equatorial Pacific, the NCP of lower trophic levels in the northern Pacific and Atlantic oceans is projected to be halved with respect to the current climate under a substantial mitigation scenario at the end of the twenty-first century. It is thus suggested that changes due to cumulative carbon emissions up to present and the projected concentration pathways of aerosol in the next decades control the evolution of surface ocean biogeochemistry in the second half of this century more than the specific pathways of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations.     

Seasonal temperature variations and energy demand

This paper presents an empirical study of the relationship between residential energy demand and temperature. Unlike previous studies in this field, the data sample has a global coverage and special emphasis is given to the heterogeneous response of different regions and to the contrasting effects on energy demand for cooling and heating purposes. To account for this we distinguish between different regions, seasons, and energy sources. Short- and long-run temperature demand elasticities are estimated. These features make the model results especially valuable in the analysis of climate change impacts as they provide an empirical basis for the study of the impact of climate change on energy demand. To illustrate the potential of the results as a basis for the study of climate change impacts, the estimates are used in a simple exercise that projects changes in energy demand due to temperatures increase in 2085.     

Modeling climate change feedbacks and adaptation responses: recent approaches and shortcomings

This paper offers a critical review of modeling practice in the field of integrated assessment of climate change and ways forward. Past efforts in integrated assessment have concentrated on developing baseline trajectories of emissions and mitigation scenario analyses. A key missing component in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) is the representation of climate impacts and adaptation responses. In this paper, we identify key biases that are introduced when climate impacts and adaptation responses are omitted from the analysis and review the state of modeling studies that attempt to capture these feedbacks. A common problem in these IAM studies is the lack of connection with empirical studies. We therefore also review the state of the empirical work on climate impacts and identify ways that this connection could be improved.     

Terrestrial planet formation surrounding close binary stars

Most stars reside in binary/multiple star systems; however, previous models of planet formation have studied growth of bodies orbiting an isolated single star. Disk material has been observed around both components of some young close binary star systems. Additionally, it has been shown that if planets form at the right places within such disks, they can remain dynamically stable for very long times. Herein, we numerically simulate the late stages of terrestrial planet growth in circumbinary disks around ‘close’ binary star systems with stellar separations 0.05 AU?aB?0.4 AU and binary eccentricities 0?eB?0.8. In each simulation, the sum of the masses of the two stars is 1 M_⊙, and giant planets are included. The initial disk of planetary embryos is the same as that used for simulating the late stages of terrestrial planet formation within our Solar System by Chambers [Chambers, J.E., 2001. Icarus 152, 205-224], and around each individual component of the α Centauri AB binary star system by Quintana et al. [Quintana, E.V., Lissauer, J.J., Chambers, J.E., Duncan, M.J., 2002. Astrophys. J. 576, 982-996]. Multiple simulations are performed for each binary star system under study, and our results are statistically compared to a set of planet formation simulations in the Sun-Jupiter-Saturn system that begin with essentially the same initial disk of protoplanets. The planetary systems formed around binaries with apastron distances QB≡aB(1+eB)?0.2 AU are very similar to those around single stars, whereas those with larger maximum separations tend to be sparcer, with fewer planets, especially interior to 1 AU. We also provide formulae that can be used to scale results of planetary accretion simulations to various systems with different total stellar mass, disk sizes, and planetesimal masses and densities.     

Yields of suspended sediment and dissolved solids from the Andean basins of Ecuador

Abstract

Water discharge and suspended and dissolved sediment data from three rivers (Napo, Pastaza and Santiago) in the Ecuadorian Amazon basin and a river in the Pacific basin (Esmeraldas) over a 9-year period, are presented. This data set allows us to present: (a) the chemical weathering rates; (b) the erosion rates, calculated from the suspended sediment from the Andean basin; (c) the spatio-temporal variability of the two regions; and (d) the relationship between this variability and the precipitation, topography, lithology and seismic activity of the area. The dissolved solids load from the Esmeraldas basin was 2 × 10⁶ t year^-1, whereas for the Napo, Pastaza and Santiago basins, it was 4, 2 and 3 × 10⁶ t year^-1, respectively. For stations in the Andean piedmont of Ecuador, the relationship between surface sediment and the total sediment concentration was found to be close to one. This is due to minimal stratification of the suspended sediment in the vertical profile, which is attributed to turbulence and high vertical water speeds. However, during the dry season, when the water speed decreases, sediment stratification appears, but this effect can be neglected in the sediment flux calculations due to low concentration rates. The suspended sediment load in the Pacific basin was 6 × 10⁶ t year^-1, and the total for the three Amazon basins was 47 × 10⁶ t year^-1. The difference between these contributions of the suspended sediment load is likely due to the tectonic uplift and the seismic and volcanic dynamics that occur on the Amazon side.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Armijos, E., Laraque, A., Barba, S., Bourrel, L., Ceron, C., Lagane, C., Magat, P., Moquet, J.-S., Pombosa, R., Sondag, F., Vauchel, P., Vera, A., and Guyot, J.L., 2013. Yields of suspended sediment and dissolved solids from the Andean basins of Ecuador. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (7), 1478–1494.     

Subsurface thermal conductivity assessment in Calabria (southern Italy): a regional case study

Determining the suitability of a local area at a regional or local scale for the geothermal application of low enthalpy systems requires the knowledge of rock thermal conductivity values to evaluate the possibility of low-enthalpy heat exchange. A digital cartographic tool is also needed to synthesize the thermal properties of the underground. This tool should be easily accessible and upgradeable and thus suitable for territorial planning and environmental control. In order to address these key issues, a methodological approach was developed within the framework of the national VIGOR Project, dedicated to evaluating the geothermal potential in southern Italy. In this paper the region of Calabria was selected as a case study. Around 70 samples that were representative of the main geological formations were collected from all over the area. Thermal property tests were carried out both in dry and wet conditions, using a thermal device in accordance with the modified transient plane source method. The thermal conductivity values were then compared with data from the international literature. In order to consider the influence of the entire stratigraphic sequence on the thermal conductivity parameters, a geostatistical analysis of the available lithostratigraphic data was performed using the MATLAB toolbox Modalstrata, specially developed for this purpose. A comprehensive geothermal subsurface characterization of Calabria was thus obtained.     

r.massmov: an open-source landslide model for dynamic early warning systems

This paper illustrates the main characteristics of the newly developed landslide model r.massmov, which is based on the shallow water equations, and is capable of simulating the landslide propagation over complex topographies. The model is the result of the reimplementation of the MassMov2D into the free and open-source GRASS GIS with a series of enhancements aiming at allowing its possible integration into innovative early warning monitoring systems and specifically into Web processing services. These improvements, finalized at significantly reducing computational times, include the introduction of a new automatic stopping criterion, fluidization process algorithm, and the parallel computing. Moreover, the results of multi-spatial resolution analysis conducted on a real case study located in the southern Switzerland are presented. In particular, this analysis, composed by a sensitivity analysis and calibration process, allowed to evaluate the model capabilities in simulating the phenomenon at different input data resolution. The results illustrate that the introduced modifications lead to important reductions in the computational time (more than 90 % faster) and that, using the lower dataset resolution capable of guaranteeing reliable results, the model can be run in about 1 s instead of the 3.5 h required by previous model with not optimized dataset resolution. Aside, the results of the research are a series of new GRASS GIS modules for conducting sensitivity analysis and for calibration. The latter integrates the automated calibration program “UCODE” with any GRASS raster module. Finally, the research workflow presented in this paper illustrates a best practice in applying r.massmov in real case applications.