SWAT-based hydrological modelling of tropical land-use scenarios

Abstract

The Hulu Langat basin, a strategic watershed in Malaysia, has in recent decades been exposed to extensive changes in land-use and consequently hydrological conditions. In this work, the impact of Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC) on hydrological conditions (water discharge and sediment load) of the basin were investigated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Four land-use scenarios were defined for land-use change impact analysis, i.e. past, present (baseline), future and water conservation planning. The land-use maps, dated 1984, 1990, 1997 and 2002, were defined as the past scenarios for LUCC impact analysis. The present scenario was defined based on the 2006 land-use map. The 2020 land-use map was simulated using a cellular automata-Markov model and defined as the future scenario. Water conservation scenarios were produced based on guidelines published by Malaysia’s Department of Town and Country Planning and Department of Environment. Model calibration and uncertainty analysis was performed using the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2) algorithm. The model robustness for water discharge simulation for the period 1997–2008 was good. However, due to uncertainties, mainly resulting from intense urban development in the basin, its robustness for sediment load simulation was only acceptable for the calibration period 1997–2004. The optimized model was run using different land-use maps over the periods 1997–2008 and 1997–2004 for water discharge and sediment load estimation, respectively. In comparison to the baseline scenario, SWAT simulation using the past and conservative scenarios showed significant reduction in monthly direct runoff and monthly sediment load, while SWAT simulation based on the future scenario showed significant increase in monthly direct runoff, monthly sediment load and groundwater recharge.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Perrin     

Fitting optimum order of Markov chain models for daily rainfall occurrences in Peninsular Malaysia

The analysis of the daily rainfall occurrence behavior is becoming more important, particularly in water-related sectors. Many studies have identified a more comprehensive pattern of the daily rainfall behavior based on the Markov chain models. One of the aims in fitting the Markov chain models of various orders to the daily rainfall occurrence is to determine the optimum order. In this study, the optimum order of the Markov chain models for a 5-day sequence will be examined in each of the 18 rainfall stations in Peninsular Malaysia, which have been selected based on the availability of the data, using the Akaike’s (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC). The identification of the most appropriate order in describing the distribution of the wet (dry) spells for each of the rainfall stations is obtained using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit test. It is found that the optimum order varies according to the levels of threshold used (e.g., either 0.1 or 10.0 mm), the locations of the region and the types of monsoon seasons. At most stations, the Markov chain models of a higher order are found to be optimum for rainfall occurrence during the northeast monsoon season for both levels of threshold. However, it is generally found that regardless of the monsoon seasons, the first-order model is optimum for the northwestern and eastern regions of the peninsula when the level of thresholds of 10.0 mm is considered. The analysis indicates that the first order of the Markov chain model is found to be most appropriate for describing the distribution of wet spells, whereas the higher-order models are found to be adequate for the dry spells in most of the rainfall stations for both threshold levels and monsoon seasons.     

A model of fish preference and mortality under hypoxic water in the coastal environment

Eutrophication and associated occurrence of hypoxic condition could cause significant damage to marine ecosystems, resulting in considerable economic losses to fisheries and aquaculture and is a major source of stress that fish often have to contend with in order to survive. This problem is likely to be exacerbated in the coming years, since the wastewater treatment facilities is unlikely to catch up with increasing human activities. Moreover, large-scale reclamation projects in coastal areas have recently been increased, and these activities certainly have adverse impacts on water quality and fisheries resources. Coastal construction has a significant role in the development of hypoxic water by changing the current and mixing pattern of water. Changes in species composition and decreases in species richness and diversity have been well documented in hypoxic systems. Hypoxia could cause endocrine disruption in fish and eliminate populations of sensitive species. Shallow coastal areas are of great importance for the special nursery of fish and shellfish and land reclamation in these areas cause strong damage to fisheries. Although the tolerance of aquatic life to hypoxia is known, there is no information about the mortality of fish caused by hypoxia because fish can swim around it and no modeling study has yet been carried out. Criteria that influence the movement of fish are: amounts of food, water temperature and depth, dissolved oxygen concentration and nature of seabed. However, among these, water temperature and dissolved oxygen are the most crucial parameters that affect survival, movement and growth of fish. In this paper, a model of fish preference and mortality for environmental conditions was developed and applied to the Hakata Bay where hypoxic water occurs every summer. For the purpose of this study, a field survey of fish behavior under hypoxic water was conducted by releasing marbled sale (Pleuronectes yokohamae) in the inner bay. Moreover, a series of preference tests for DO, salinity and temperature in the laboratory were conducted in order to decide preference parameters of fish. Using the results of both field and laboratory studies, a sub-module of fish preference and mortality was coded within an integrated hydrothermal and eutrophication model (CHEM) to predict the behavior and mortality of marbled sale when hypoxia would occur in the bay. The model could reasonably simulate the behavior of the fish under hypoxia. An assessment of the impact of the ongoing land reclamation project of about 401 ha in the Wajiro tidal flat zones at the head of the bay on the fisheries resources was also conducted using the model. The results showed that the artificial land lowered the mortality rate of fish under hypoxic condition in the bay during the summer period.     

Spatiotemporal variation and mechanisms of temperature inversion in the Bay of Bengal and the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean

In the northern Bay of Bengal, the existence of intense temperature inversion during winter is a widely accepted phenomenon. However, occurrences of temperature inversion during other seasons and the spatial distribution within and adjacent to the Bay of Bengal are not well understood. In this study, a higher resolution spatiotemporal variation of temperature inversion and its mechanisms are examined with mixed layer heat and salt budget analysis utilizing long-term Argo（2004 to 2020） and RAMA（2...     

Recent insights into the dissolved and particulate fluxes from the Himalayan tributaries to the Ganga River

The Ganga River plays a major role in the transfer of materials from the Indian sub-continent to the Bay of Bengal, both in dissolved and particulate forms. To understand the present elemental dynamics of the Ganga River system, it is important to assess the hydrogeochemical contribution of its tributaries. In this paper, we present an updated database on dissolved and particulate fluxes and denudation rates of the Himalayan tributaries of the Ganga River (Ramganga, Ghaghara, Gandak and Kosi). Dissolved trace element concentrations, their fluxes and suspended sediment-associated elemental fluxes of the Himalayan tributaries have been reported for the first time. Total dissolved flux of the Ramganga, Ghaghara, Gandak and Kosi was estimated as 4, 19.1, 10.3 and 8.8 million tons year^?1 accounting for ~?5.7, ~?27.3, ~?14.7 and ~?12.6%, respectively, of the total annual dissolved load carried by the Ganga River. The total particulate flux of the Ramganga, Ghaghara, Gandak and Kosi was computed as 8.2, 81.6, 30.9 and 19.5 million tons year^?1, respectively. Compared to earlier studies, we have found a significant increase in the total dissolved flux and chemical denudation rate of the studied tributaries. The estimated particulate fluxes were found to be low in comparison to the previous studies. We suggest that a significant increase in the dissolved fluxes and a decrease in the particulate fluxes are an indication of the increasing anthropogenic disturbances in the catchment of these tributaries.     

Application of advanced technology to build a vibrant environment on planet mars

In order to make Mars a better planet, in this paper, photo-dissociation technology, mathematical modeling, and a series of chemical reaction methodology have been proposed to create a vibrant ecosystem and balance the atmosphere on Mars. Since CO₂ is a stable compound, breaking it down into C and O₂ always is challenging, but exciting thought. Interestingly, my recent research revealed that photo-dissociation by utilizing UVV (laser) could be an exciting technology to split CO₂ into C + O₂ since the theoretical reaction suggested that the production of C + O₂ channel from CO₂ photo-exciting technology releases the energetic level threshold of C(³P₂) + O₂(X³∑ _g ^? ) that can be detected by ultraviolet laser pump-probe spectroscopy. Subsequently, a mathematical model for creating of ocean on Mars by breaking its substantial polar ice has been performed considering algorithms for surface and coordinate between the barotropic momentum and continuity equations, and interestingly the calculation suggested that it is very much possible to flow ocean on Mars surface to meet its water demand. Subsequently, proposed series of chemical reaction technology suggested that implementation of carbonator looping and plasma reaction paths can convert photo-dissociated carbon (C) into N₂ and NH₃ to enrich Mars’ soil in order to grow vegetation as well as to create a balance ecosystem in Mars eventually. Finally, sustainable green technology has been proposed for the development of Mars to be a complete balanced planet to deliver all basic and modern needs to run daily life smoothly. Thus, implication of chemical reaction technologies along with sustainable development plans can indeed make the Mars a vibrant environment to live there in clean and green.     

Study of isotopic seasonality to assess the water source of proglacial stream in Chhota Shigri Glaciated Basin,Western Himalaya

The impact of surface melt patterns and the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is examined on the varying contributions of end member (snow, glacier ice, and rain) to proglacial streamflow during the ablation period (June–October) in the Chhota Shigri glaciated basin, Western Himalaya. Isotopic seasonality observed in the catchment precipitation was generally reflected in surface runoff (supraglacial melt and proglacial stream) and shows a shift in major water source during the melt season. Isotopically correlated (δ¹⁸O–δD) high deuterium intercept in the surface runoff suggests that westerly precipitation acts as the dominant source, augmenting the other snow- and ice-melt sources in the region. The endmember contributions to the proglacial stream were quantified using a three-component mixing. Overall, glacier ice melt is the major source of proglacial discharge. Snowmelt is the predominant source during the early ablation season (June) and the peak ISM period (August and September), whereas ice melt reaches a maximum in the peak melt period (July). The monthly contribution of rain is on the lower side and shows a steady rise and decline with onset and retreat of the monsoon. These results are persistent with the surface melt pattern observed in Chhota Shigri glacier, Upper Chandra basin. Moreover, the role of the ISM in Chhota Shigri glacier is unvarying to that observed in other glacierized catchments of Upper Ganga basin. Thus, this study augments the significant role of the ISM in glacier mass balance up to the boundary of the central-western Himalayan glaciated region.