The effect of climate and land use change on flow duration in the Maryland Piedmont region

This paper describes the use of a continuous streamflow model to examine the effects of climate and land use change on flow duration in six urbanizing watersheds in the Maryland Piedmont region. The hydrologic model is coupled with an optimization routine to achieve an agreement between observed and simulated streamflow. Future predictions are made for three scenarios: future climate change, land use change, and jointly varying climate and land use. Future climate is modelled using precipitation and temperature predictions for the Canadian Climate Centre (CCC) and Hadley climate models. Results show that a significant increase in temperature under the CCC climate predictions produces a decreasing trend in low flows. A significant increasing trend in precipitation under the Hadley climate predictions produces an increasing trend in peak flows. Land use change by itself, as simulated by an additional 10% increase in imperviousness (from 20·5 to 30·5%), produces no significant changes in the simulated flow durations. However, coupling the effects of land use change with climate change leads to more significant decreasing trends in low flows under the CCC climate predictions and more significant increasing trends in peak flows under Hadley climate predictions than when climate change alone is employed. These findings indicate that combined land use and climate change can result in more significant hydrologic change than either driver acting alone. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Smoothed minima baseflow separation tool for perennial and intermittent streams

The United Kingdom Institute of Hydrology (UKIH) smoothed minima baseflow separation method originally developed for the daily flow data of perennial streams and adopted for intermittent streams is presented. The adopted method (AdUKIH) is the generalized version of the UKIH and hence applicable not only to intermittent streams but also to perennial streams. The AdUKIH method is applied on three daily streamflow gauging stations from the European part of Turkey, the Thrace region. The AdUKIH enables one to change the parameter 0·9 in the UKIH method and also introduces different block sizes, which is limited to five days in the original UKIH method. The AdUKIH method is considered a useful tool in helping practitioners and researchers to separate continuous baseflow from the daily flow in perennial and intermittent streams. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimation of compaction parameters of fine‐grained soils in terms of compaction energy using artificial neural networks

The determination of the compaction parameters such as optimum water content (w_opt) and maximum dry unit weight (γ_dmax) requires great efforts by applying the compaction testing procedure which is also time consuming and needs significant amount of work. Therefore, it seems more reasonable to use the indirect methods for estimating the compaction parameters. In recent years, the artificial neural network (ANN) modelling has gained an increasing interest and is also acquiring more popularity in geotechnical engineering applications. This study deals with the estimation of the compaction parameters for fine‐grained soils based on compaction energy using ANN with the feed‐forward back‐propagation algorithm. In this study, the data including the results of the consistency tests, standard and modified Proctor tests, are collected from the literature and used in the analyses. The optimum structure of a network is determined for each ANN models. The analyses showed that the ANN models give quite reliable estimations in comparison with regression methods, thus they can be used as a reliable tool for the prediction of w_opt and γ_dmax. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Application of probabilistic-based frequency ratio model in groundwater potential mapping using remote sensing data and GIS

The main goal of this study is to investigate the application of the probabilistic-based frequency ratio (FR) model in groundwater potential mapping at Langat basin in Malaysia using geographical information system. So far, the approach of probabilistic frequency ratio model has not yet been used to delineate groundwater potential in Malaysia. Moreover, this study includes the analysis of the spatial relationships between groundwater yield and various hydrological conditioning factors such as elevation, slope, curvature, river, lineament, geology, soil, and land use for this region. Eight groundwater-related factors were collected and extracted from topographic data, geological data, satellite imagery, and published maps. About 68 groundwater data with high potential yield values of ≥11 m³/h were randomly selected using statistical software of SPSS. Then, the groundwater data were randomly split into a training dataset 70 % (48 borehole data) for training the model and the remaining 30 % (20 borehole data) was used for validation purpose. Finally, the frequency ratio coefficients of the hydrological factors were used to generate the groundwater potential map. The validation dataset which was not used during the FR modeling process was used to validate the groundwater potential map using the prediction rate method. The validation results showed that the area under the curve for frequency model is 84.78 %. As far as the performance of the FR approach is concerned, the results appeared to be quite satisfactory, i.e., the zones determined on the map being zones of relative groundwater potential. This information could be used by government agencies as well as private sectors as a guide for groundwater exploration and assessment in Malaysia.     

Active crustal shortening in NE Syria revealed by deformed terraces of the River Euphrates

The Africa–Arabia plate boundary comprises the Red Sea oceanic spreading centre and the left‐lateral Dead Sea Fault Zone (DSFZ); however, previous work has indicated kinematic inconsistency between its continental and oceanic parts. The Palmyra Fold Belt (PFB) splays ENE from the DSFZ in SW Syria and persists for ～400 km to the River Euphrates, but its significance within the regional pattern of active crustal deformation has hitherto been unclear. We report deformation of Euphrates terraces consistent with Quaternary right‐lateral transpression within the PFB, indicating anticlockwise rotation (estimated as 0.3° Ma^?1 about 36.0°N 39.8°E) of the block between the PFB and the northern DSFZ relative to the Arabian Plate interior. The northern DSFZ is shown to be kinematically consistent with the combination of Euler vectors for the PFB and the Red Sea spreading, resolving the inconsistency previously evident. The SW PFB causes a significant earthquake hazard, previously unrecognized, to the city of Damascus.     

Groundwater discharge mechanism in semi‐arid regions and the role of evapotranspiration

The present study examined groundwater recharge/discharge mechanisms in the regional Central Sudan Rift Basins (CSRB). Aquifers in CSRB constitute poorly sorted silisiclastics of sand, clay and gravels deposited in closed hydrologic systems of the Cretaceous–Pleistocene fluviolacustrine environments. CSRB are bounded to the north by the highlands of the Central African Shear Zone (CAZS) that represents the surface and groundwater divides. Sporadic recharge in the peripheries of the basins along the CASZ occurs subsequent to decadal and centennial storm events. Inflow from the Nile into the aquifers represents an additional source of recharge. Thus, groundwater resources cannot be labelled fossil nor can they be readily recharged. Closed hydrologic troughs located adjacent to the influent Nile system mark areas of main groundwater discharge characterized by lower hydraulic heads. This study has examined mechanisms that derive the discharge of the groundwater in these closed basins and concluded that only evapotranspirative discharge can provide a plausible explanation. Groundwater abstraction is mainly through deep‐rooted trees and effective evaporation. The increase of TDS along the flow indicates local recharge at the peripheries of basins and shows the influence of evaporation and rock/water interaction. The decline in groundwater level along a flow path was calculated using Darcy's law to estimate average recharge and evapotranspirative discharge, which are equal under natural equilibrium and make the only fluxes in CSRB. Steady‐state 2D flow modelling has demonstrated that an average recharge of 4–8 mm yr^?1 and evapotranspirative discharge of 1–22 mm yr^?1 will maintain natural equilibrium in CSRB. Sporadic storms provide recharge in the highlands to preserve the current hydraulic gradient and maintain aquifer dynamics. Simulated recharge from the Nile totals about 17·5 mm yr^?1 and is therefore a significant contributor to the water balance. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Boltzmann Equilibrium of Endothermic Heavy Nuclear Synthesis in the Universe and a Quark Relation to the Magic Numbers

As laser–plasma interactions access ever-increasing ranges of plasma temperatures and densities, it is interesting to consider whether they will some day shed light on questions concerning nuclear synthesis. One such open question is the process of endothermic nuclear synthesis for elements with A > 60, thought to have taken place at a point in time during the big bang, or currently in supernovae. We present an explanation based on a Boltzmann equilibrium condition, in combination with the change of the Fermi-statistics from the relativistic branch for hadrons from higher than nuclear densities to the lower density subrelativistic branch. The Debye length confinement of nuclei breaks down at the relativistic change, thus leading to the impossibility of nucleation of the quark-gluon state at higher than nuclear densities. Taking the increment for the proton number Z as Z′ = 10 of the measured standard abundance distribution (SAD) of the elements for a Boltzmann probability for heavy element synthesis, a sequence 3 ⁿ was found with the exponent n for the sequence of the magic numbers. The jump between the magic numbers 20 and 28 does not need then the usual spin-orbit explanation.     

Infinitesimal Orbits Around the Libration Points in the Elliptic Restricted Three Body Problem

The objective of the present work is to develope explicit analytical expressions for the small amplitude orbits of the infinitesimal mass about the equilibrium points in the elliptic restricted three body problem. To handle this dynamical problem, the Hamiltonian for the elliptic problem is formed with the true anomaly and then with the eccentric anomaly as independent variables. The origin is then transformed to a fixed point and the Hamiltonian is developed up to O(4) in the eccentricity, e, (which plays the role of the small parameter of the problem) of the primaries. The integration of the model problem under consideration is undertaken by means of a perturbation technique based on Lie series developments, which leads to the solution of the canonical equations of motion.