Reduction of future disaster damages by learning from disaster experiences

This paper examines the effect of a country’s own past disaster experiences and nearby countries’ past experiences on subsequent disaster damage. We use global disaster data from 1990 to 2010, which include disaster-related death tolls for both natural and technological disasters that are further divided into sub-categories. Overall, we find evidence of a reduction effect of past disaster damage on future disaster damage. More detailed analyses show that an adaptation effect seems to be present for certain combinations of disaster types and levels of economic development. The results show that a country’s own experiences reduce future damage for natural disasters but that the marginal effect is larger for lower-income countries. On the other hand, for technological disasters, a robust impact of experiences was found only in higher-income countries. In terms of the disaster experiences of nearby countries, the adaptation effect was found only for natural disasters, and the marginal impact was relatively higher for higher-income countries.     

Chemical weathering of carbonates and silicates in the Han River basin,South Korea

A detailed investigation of the fluvial geochemistry of the Han River system allows to estimate the rates of chemical weathering and the consumption of CO₂. The Han River drains approximately 26,000 km² and is the largest river system in South Korea in terms of both water discharge and total river length. It consists of two major tributaries: the North Han River (NHR) and the South Han River (SHR). Distinct differences in basin lithology (silicate vs. carbonate) between the NHR and SHR provide a good natural laboratory in which to examine weathering processes and the influence of basin geology on water quality. The concentrations of major elements and the Sr isotopic compositions were obtained from 58 samples collected in both summer and winter along the Han River system in both 2000 and 2006. The concentrations of dissolved loads differed considerably between the NHR and SHR; compared with the SHR, the NHR had much lower total dissolved solids (TDS), Sr, and major ion concentrations but a higher Si concentration and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio. A forward model showed that the dissolved loads in the NHR came primarily from silicate weathering (55 ± 11%), with a relatively small portion from carbonates (30 ± 14%), whereas the main contribution to the dissolved loads in the SHR was carbonate weathering (82 ± 3%), with only 11 ± 4% from silicates. These results are consistent with the different lithologies of the two drainage basins: silicate rocks in the NHR versus carbonate rocks in the SHR. Sulfuric acid derived from sulfide dissolution in coal-containing sedimentary strata has played an important role in carbonate weathering in the SHR basin, unlike in the NHR basin. The silicate weathering rate (SWR) was similar between the NHR and SHR basins, but the rate of CO₂ consumption in the SHR basin was lower than in the NHR basin due to an important role of sulfuric acid derived from pyrite oxidation.     

Simplified Method for the Assessment of the Stiffness Anisotropy of Rocks at Small Strains

Summary A new, practically applicable method for characterizing the stiffness anisotropy of rocks is presented. The anisotropy of geo-materials is often ignored in engineering applications, with potentially serious ramifications, because of the number of parameters required for characterization. The elastic anisotropy has often been considered to be a function of mathematical symmetry, and the restrictions due to layering, microcracking and granularity of the materials have not been considered in the assessment of the anisotropy. The practicality of the method proposed here is achieved by rationally reducing the number of independent anisotropy parameters, typically 9 for orthotropic anisotropy, to a system of 4 independent parameters through a systematic theoretical and experimental analysis of these structural restrictions. These 4 parameters are shown to be sufficient for describing the anisotropy of some rocks and sands at small strains, and parameter determination by back-analysis is demonstrated to be stable using appropriate measurement systems involving 9 elastic wave velocities even when the directions of anisotropic axes are unknown and the velocity data contains appreciable error.     

Internal Microanatomy and Zoological Affinity of the Early Cambrian Olivooides

The early Cambrian pentamerous microfossil Olivooides/Punctatus in South China, which is characterized by a diagnostic stellate tubular apex, has been well-known for its almost complete development sequence that can be confidently traced from embryos and hatched juveniles, to conical adults. However, its zoological affinity remains highly controversial. Here we describe the internal microanatomic structures of the soft-body inside the peridermal theca of Olivooides multisulcatus Qian, 1977, including interradial pairs of tentacles, adradial and perradial frenula, perradial oral marginal lappets and twins of perradial gastric saccule-like humps as well as a circular velarium with striated coronal muscles. Particularly, one specimen shows bifurcated velarial canals along the bell aperture. Both the components of the soft-body and the external theca (or cyst) are arranged in perfect pentaradial symmetry. These characteristics are more compatible with those of living cubomedusans and co-occurring Cambrian athecate embryonic cubozoans. Concerning the presence of peridermal theca, Olivooides most likely represents an extinct thecate stem-group cubomedusae but devoid of both perradial eyes and specialized pedalia. The well-grown soft body inside the peridermal tube displays a set of mixed features of both polyp and medusa.     

Mixing of magmatic CO2 into volcano groundwater flow at Aso volcano assessed combining carbon and water stable isotopes

To understand deep groundwater flow systems and their interaction with CO₂ emanated from magma at depth in a volcanic edifice, deep groundwater samples were collected from hot spring wells in the Aso volcanic area for hydrogen, oxygen and carbon isotope analyses and measurements of the stable carbon isotope ratios and concentrations of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). Relations between the stable carbon isotope ratio (δ¹³C_DIC) and DIC concentrations of the sampled waters show that magma-derived CO₂ mixed into the deep groundwater. Furthermore, groundwaters of deeper areas, except samples from fumarolic areas, show higher δ¹³C_DIC values. The waters' stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope ratios (δD and δ¹⁸O) reflect the meteoric-water origin of that region's deep groundwater. A negative correlation was found between the altitude of the well bottom and the altitude of groundwater recharge as calculated using the equation of the recharge-water line and δD value. This applies especially in the Aso-dani area, where deeper groundwater correlates with higher recharge. Groundwater recharged at high altitude has higher δ¹³C_DIC of than groundwater recharged at low altitude, strongly suggesting that magmatic CO₂ is present to a much greater degree in deeper groundwater. These results indicate that magmatic CO₂ mixes into deeper groundwater flowing nearer the magma conduit or chamber.     

Temperature trends in the skin/surface, mid-troposphere and low stratosphere near Korea from satellite and ground measurements

Various types of satellite (AIRS/AMSU, MODIS) and ground measurements are used to analyze temperature trends in the four vertical layers (skin/surface, mid-troposphere, and low stratosphere) around the Korean Peninsula (123–132°E, 33–44°N) during the period from September 2002 to August 2010. The ground-based observations include 72 Surface Meteorological Stations (SMSs), 6 radiosonde stations (RAOBs), 457 Automatic Weather Stations (AWSs) over the land, and 5 buoy stations over the ocean. A strong warming (0.052 K yr^?1) at the surface, and a weak warming (0.004～0.010 K yr^?1) in the mid-troposphere and low stratosphere have been found from satellite data, leading to an unstable atmospheric layer. The AIRS/AMSU warming trend over the ocean surface around the Korean Peninsula is about 2.5 times greater than that over the land surface. The ground measurements from both SMS and AWS over the land surface of South Korea also show a warming of 0.043～0.082 K yr^?1, consistent with the satellite observations. The correlation average (r = 0.80) between MODIS skin temperature and ground measurement is significant. The correlations between AMSU and RAOB are very high (0.91～0.95) in the anomaly time series, calculated from the spatial averages of monthly mean temperature values. However, the warming found in the AMSU data is stronger than that from the RAOB at the surface. The opposite feature is present above the mid-troposphere, indicating that there is a systematic difference. Warming phenomena (0.012～0.078 K yr^?1) are observed from all three data sets (SMS, AWS, MODIS), which have been corroborated by the coincident measurements at five ground stations. However, it should also be noted that the observed trends are subject to large uncertainty as the corresponding 95% confidence intervals tend to be larger than the observed signals due to large thermal variability and the relatively short periods of the satellitebased temperature records. The EOF analysis of monthly mean temperature anomalies indicates that the tropospheric temperature variability near Korea is primarily linked to the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and secondarily to ENSO (El Niño and Southern Oscillation). However, the low stratospheric temperature variability is mainly associated with Southern Oscillation and then additionally with Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Uncertainties from the different spatial resolutions between satellite data are discussed in the trends.     

A linear projection for the timing of unprecedented climate in Korea

Recently we have had abnormal weather events worldwide that are attributed by climate scientists to the global warming induced by human activities. If the global warming continues in the future and such events occur more frequently and someday become normal, we will have an unprecedented climate. This study intends to answer when we will have an unprecedented warm climate, focusing more on the regional characteristics of the timing of unprecedented climate. Using an in-situ observational data from weather stations of annual-mean surface air temperature in Korea from 1973 to 2015, we estimate a timing of unprecedented climate with a linear regression method. Based on the in-situ data with statistically significant warming trends at 95% confidence level, an unprecedented climate in Korea is projected to occur first in Cheongju by 2043 and last in Haenam by 2168. This 125-year gap in the timing indicates that a regional difference in timing of unprecedented climate is considerably large in Korea. Despite the high sensitivity of linear estimation to the data period and resolution, our findings on the large regional difference in timing of unprecedented climate can give an insight into making policies for climate change mitigation and adaptation, not only for the central government but for provincial governments.     

Real Data Assimilation Using the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) System for a Global Non-hydrostatic NWP model on the Cubed-sphere

An ensemble data assimilation system using the 4-dimensional Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter is implemented to a global non-hydrostatic Numerical Weather Prediction model on the cubed-sphere. The ensemble data assimilation system is coupled to the Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems Package for Observation Processing, for real observation data from diverse resources, including satellites. For computational efficiency in a parallel computing environment, we employ some advanced software engineering techniques in the handling of a large number of files. The ensemble data assimilation system is tested in a semi-operational mode, and its performance is verified using the Integrated Forecast System analysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. It is found that the system can be stabilized effectively by additive inflation to account for sampling errors, especially when radiance satellite data are additionally used.     

Past,present and future vegetation-cloud feedbacks in the Amazon Basin

To begin exploring the underlying mechanisms that couple vegetation to cloud formation processes, we derive the lifting condensation level (LCL) to estimate cumulus cloud base height. Using a fully coupled land–ocean–atmosphere general circulation model (HadCM3LC), we investigate Amazonian forest feedbacks on cloud formation over three geological periods; modern-day (a.d. 1970–1990), the last glacial maximum (LGM; 21 kya), and under a future climate scenario (IS92a; a.d. 2070–2090). Results indicate that for both past and future climate scenarios, LCL is higher relative to modern-day. Statistical analyses indicate that the 800 m increase in LCL during the LGM is related primarily to the drier atmosphere promoted by lower tropical sea surface temperatures. In contrast, the predicted 1,000 m increase in LCL in the future scenario is the result of a large increase in surface temperature and reduced vegetation cover.     

K台网简介

前言Ｋ－ＮＥＴ（ＫｙｏｓｈｉｎＮｅｔ）是１９９５年兵库县南部地震后,科学技术厅防灾科学技术研究所在全国１０００个地点（现为１００１个地点）布设的强震仪台网。由于是在全日本以约２５ｋｍ的间隔布设同一规格的加速度型强震仪,故能进行非常均匀的观测。该台网是...