Detecting changing river temperatures in England and Wales

Changes in water temperature can have important consequences for aquatic ecosystems, with some species being sensitive even to small shifts in temperature during some or all of their life cycle. While many studies report increasing regional and global air temperatures, evidence of changes in river water temperature has, thus far, been site specific and often from sites heavily influenced by human activities that themselves could lead to warming. Here we present a tiered assessment of changing river water temperature covering England and Wales with data from 2773 locations. We use novel statistical approaches to detect trends in irregularly sampled spot measurements taken between 1990 and 2006. During this 17‐year period, on average, mean water temperature increased by 0.03 °C per year (±0.002 °C), and positive changes in water temperature were observed at 2385 (86%) sites. Examination of catchments where there has been limited human influence on hydrological response shows that changes in river flow have had little influence on these water temperature trends. In the absence of other systematic influences on water temperature, it is inferred that anthropogenically driven climate change is driving some of this trend in water temperature. © 2014 The Authors. Hydrological Processes published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

The Rough Guide to the Moon and Mars

Mike Lockwood and Mike Hapgood rough out essential physics for the astronaut intending to arrive alive.     

Origin of the in situ stress field in south-eastern Australia

The in situ stress field of south‐eastern Australia inferred from earthquake focal mechanisms and bore‐hole breakouts is unusual in that it is characterised by large obliquity between the maximum horizontal compressive stress orientation (S_Hmax) and the absolute plate motion azimuth. The evolution of the neotectonic strain field deduced from historical seismicity and both onshore and offshore faulting records is used to address the origin of this unusual stress field. Strain rates derived from estimates of the seismic moment release rate (up to ～10^?16 s^?1) are compatible with Quaternary fault–slip rates. The record of more or less continuous tectonic activity extends back to the terminal Miocene or early Pliocene (10–5 Ma). Terminal Miocene tectonic activity was characterised by regional‐scale tilting and local uplift and erosion, now best preserved by unconformities in offshore basins. Plate‐scale stress modelling suggests the in situ stress field reflects increased coupling of the Australian and Pacific Plate boundary in the late Miocene, associated with the formation of the Southern Alps in New Zealand.     

Membrane Interface Probe Protocol for Contaminants in Low‐Permeability Zones

Accurate characterization of contaminant mass in zones of low hydraulic conductivity (low k) is essential for site management because this difficult‐to‐treat mass can be a long‐term secondary source. This study developed a protocol for the membrane interface probe (MIP) as a low‐cost, rapid data‐acquisition tool for qualitatively evaluating the location and relative distribution of mass in low‐k zones. MIP operating parameters were varied systematically at high and low concentration locations at a contaminated site to evaluate the impact of the parameters on data quality relative to a detailed adjacent profile of soil concentrations. Evaluation of the relative location of maximum concentrations and the shape of the MIP vs. soil profiles led to a standard operating procedure (SOP) for the MIP to delineate contamination in low‐k zones. This includes recommendations for: (1) preferred detector (ECD for low concentration zones, PID or ECD for higher concentration zones); (2) combining downlogged and uplogged data to reduce carryover; and (3) higher carrier gas flow rate in high concentration zones. Linear regression indicated scatter in all MIP‐to‐soil comparisons, including R² values using the SOP of 0.32 in the low concentration boring and 0.49 in the high concentration boring. In contrast, a control dataset with soil‐to‐soil correlations from borings 1‐m apart exhibited an R² of ≥0.88, highlighting the uncertainty in predicting soil concentrations using MIP data. This study demonstrates that the MIP provides lower‐precision contaminant distribution and heterogeneity data compared to more intensive high‐resolution characterization methods. This is consistent with its use as a complementary screening tool.     

Ecosystem-based marine spatial management: Review of concepts, policies, tools, and critical issues

Conventional sectoral management and piecemeal governance are considered less and less appropriate in pursuit of sustainable development. Ecosystem based marine spatial management (EB-MSM) is an approach that recognizes the full array of interactions within an ecosystem, including human uses, rather than considering single issues, species, or ecosystem services in isolation. Marine spatial planning and ocean zoning are emerging concepts that can support EB-MSM. EB-MSM is driven by high-level goals that managers aim to achieve through the implementation of measures. High-level goals and objectives need to be translated into more operational objectives before specific targets, limits and measures can be elaborated.Monitoring, evaluation and adaptation are necessary to ensure that marine management measures are both effective and efficient. Solid monitoring frameworks are the foundation of adaptive management, as they provide the necessary information to evaluate performance and the effectiveness of management actions. Marine protected areas (MPAs) - possibly set up in networks - constitute a key component in EB-MSM policies and practises and have been applied as a cornerstone in conservation of marine biodiversity, management of fish populations, development of coastal tourism, etc. Moreover, MPA experiences have provided methods and concepts (such as zoning) to a wider EB-MSM context. The assignment of values to biophysical features of the marine environment allows the direct assessment of related management choices and may assist EB-MSM.A range of monetary valuation techniques have been proposed to reduce attributes of goods and services to a single metric. However, in the marine environment such an approach is often over simplistic, and thus less reductive techniques may be necessary. Rather than producing a single metric, the results of non-monetary assessments guide policy allowing weight to be given as necessary to potential areas of conflict and consensus.Strategies to take into account climate change effects and geohazard risks in EB-MSM have been applied or proposed worldwide. EB-MSM regimes must be alert to such risks and flexible to account for changes.     

On the relationships between catchment scale and streamwater mean residence time

The relationship between streamwater mean residence time (MRT) and landscape characteristics is poorly understood. We used tritium (³H) to define our MRT. We tested the hypothesis that baseflow water MRT increases with increasing absolute catchment size at the Maimai catchments. These catchments are simple hydrologic systems relative to many catchments around the world, with uniformly wet climatic conditions, little seasonality, uniform and nearly impermeable bedrock, steep short hillslopes, shallow soils, and well‐characterized hillslope and catchment hydrology. As a result, this is a relatively simple system and an ideal location for new MRT‐related hypothesis testing. Whilst hydrologists have used ³H to estimate water age since the 1960s nuclear testing spike, atmospheric ³H levels have now approached near background levels and are often complicated by contamination from the nuclear industry. We present results for ³H sampled from our set of nested catchments in nuclear‐industry‐free New Zealand. Because of high precision analysis, near‐natural atmospheric ³H levels, and well‐characterized rainfall ³H inputs, we were able to estimate the age of young (i.e. less than 3 years old) waters. Our results showed no correlation between MRT and catchment size. However, MRT was correlated to the median sub‐catchment size of the sampled watersheds, as shown by landscape analysis of catchment area accumulation patterns. These preliminary findings suggest that landscape organization, rather than total area, is a first‐order control on MRT and points the way forward for more detailed analysis of how landscape organization affects catchment runoff characteristics. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Changes in the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence ecosystem estimated by inverse modelling: Evidence of a fishery-induced regime shift?

Mass-balance models have been constructed using inverse methodology for the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence for the mid-1980s, the mid-1990s, and the early 2000s to describe ecosystem structure, trophic group interactions, and the effects of fishing and predation on the ecosystem for each time period. Our analyses indicate that the ecosystem structure shifted dramatically from one previously dominated by demersal (cod, redfish) and small-bodied forage (e.g., capelin, mackerel, herring, shrimp) species to one now dominated by small-bodied forage species. Overfishing removed a functional group in the late 1980s, large piscivorous fish (primarily cod and redfish), which has not recovered 14 years after the cessation of heavy fishing. This has left only marine mammals as top predators during the mid-1990s, and marine mammals and small Greenland halibut during the early 2000s. Predation by marine mammals on fish increased from the mid-1980s to the early 2000s while predation by large fish on fish decreased. Capelin and shrimp, the main prey in each period, showed an increase in biomass over the three periods. A switch in the main predators of capelin from cod to marine mammals occurred, while Greenland halibut progressively replaced cod as shrimp predators. Overfishing influenced community structure directly through preferential removal of larger-bodied fishes and indirectly through predation release because larger-bodied fishes exerted top-down control upon other community species or competed with other species for the same prey. Our modelling estimates showed that a change in predation structure or flows at the top of the trophic system led to changes in predation at all lower trophic levels in the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence. These changes represent a case of fishery-induced regime shift.     

A growth agenda without growth: English spatial policy,sustainable communities,and the death of the neo-liberal project?

The rapid onset of the recession in the UK in 2009 is likely to have profound implications for English spatial policy. The neo-liberal emphasis on supporting, and catering for, the expansion of the globally competitive London and the South East region is coming under strain as growth falters. The future of spatial policy seems uncertain as does the emphasis on what has been termed sustainable community-building. This paper explores and assesses the politics of assumption-building that have underpinned spatial policy practices and thinking in England under the Labour government. It examines and highlights some of the key challenges and difficulties that now face policy-makers and explores the possibility that we are witnessing the emergence of new forms of neo-Keynesianism. It shows that as the core assumptions of the 1990s and 2000s break down, so new opportunities are opened up for alternative, less growth-oriented agendas. The paper concludes by highlighting areas for further research and sketching out possible futures for the sustainable communities agenda.     

Bedload yields for sand‐bed streams in the Ngarradj Creek catchment,Northern Territory,Australia

Bedload yields were calculated by 39 methods at the East Tributary gauge, nine methods at Upper Swift Creek gauge and 11 methods at Swift Creek gauge in the Ngarradj Creek catchment in northern Australia. These methods involved combining various significant bedload rating curves determined for a measured bedload data set for a 4‐year period with either the hourly or daily hydrographs or flow duration curves for the same period, 1 September 1998 to 31 August 2002. Bedload ratings were both statistically significant (ρ ≤ 0.05) and explained at least 60% of the variance in bedload flux. Bias corrections were used with all methods based on log₁₀‐transformed ratings. Estimated mean annual bedload yields varied by three orders of magnitude at the East Tributary gauge and by two orders of magnitude at Upper Swift Creek and Swift Creek gauges. Hourly discharges usually produced higher estimated yields than daily discharges. The bedload rating‐flow duration curve technique overestimates yields and bias correction methods always produce even higher yields. Ratings using both immersed bedload weight and adjusted immersed bedload weight always under‐predicted yields because they contain an implicit threshold of motion condition that is at least four times greater than that predicted by Bagnold's threshold equation. Such a result questions the applicability of Bagnold's threshold equation to the Ngarradj Creek catchment. The best estimates of mean annual bedload yield at East Tributary, Upper Swift Creek and Swift Creek gauges are 600 ± 170 (SE), 1065 ± 150 and 1795 ± 270 t/year, respectively. © 2015 Commonwealth of Australia. Hydrological Processes © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.