Tsunami risk reduction for densely populated Southeast Asian cities: analysis of vehicular and pedestrian evacuation for the city of Padang, Indonesia, and assessment of interventions

A major tsunamigenic earthquake is expected in the near future along the coast of West Sumatra Province of Indonesia. In the city of Padang, the arrival time of the tsunami is expected to be ~30 min. Currently, there are approximately 400,000 people in the city living within the potential inundation zone. This study aimed to complement the existing research in appraising possible risk reduction interventions, specifically looking at enabling the timely evacuation of the area. This research, developed in consultation with national and local authorities, emergency planners and NGOs, analysed interventions for tsunami risk reduction in Padang through the development of a pedestrian and vehicular evacuation model and the appraisal of possible solutions to enhance the evacuation rates. Some of the conclusions from this research can be applied to other areas in Southeast Asia where the traffic patterns are similar to those in Padang and where the distance to safety is greater than 4–5 km. For the case of Padang, the results show that pedestrian evacuation is strongly preferable to vehicular evacuation due to the limited road capacity and the high population density. In the present situation, however, 70–80 % of the population in Padang could not evacuate within 30 min, even by foot. Common interventions such as widening roads and building bridges prove to be relatively ineffective in this case due to the large distance that has to be covered in a short time. These interventions would only have a decisive impact if a longer evacuation time was available (more than 60 min). In the case of Padang, the evacuation rate in the first 30 min is strongly dependent on the presence/absence of evacuation shelters, whose effectiveness is limited by the capacity of the structures. Building a few high-capacity and high-resilience structures such as evacuation hills is a more effective and robust evacuation strategy than constructing many small high-raised buildings. Even with evacuation structures, wider roads and bridges, about 20 % of the population would still be unable to reach safety by the time the tsunami arrives. This means about 70,000 people of Padang’s current population, which is rapidly increasing. The building of evacuation shelters may be a viable option for saving lives in the short term, but it is not a sustainable option in the medium to long term. It is therefore also necessary to set up and enforce regulations for land use planning that take into account the tsunami risk and prevent further urban development for the areas that may be affected by a tsunami.     

Impact of single inclined faults on the fluid flow and heat transport: results from 3-D finite element simulations

The impact of inclined faults on the hydrothermal field is assessed by adding simplified structural settings to synthetic models. This study is innovative in carrying out numerical simulations because it integrates the real 3-D nature of flow influenced by a fault in a porous medium, thereby providing a useful tool for complex geothermal modelling. The 3-D simulations for the coupled fluid flow and heat transport processes are based on the finite element method. In the model, one geological layer is dissected by a dipping fault. Sensitivity analyses are conducted to quantify the effects of the fault’s transmissivity on the fluid flow and thermal field. Different fault models are compared with a model where no fault is present to evaluate the effect of varying fault transmissivity. The results show that faults have a significant impact on the hydrothermal field. Varying either the fault zone width or the fault permeability will result in relevant differences in the pressure, velocity and temperature field. A linear relationship between fault zone width and fluid velocity is found, indicating that velocities increase with decreasing widths. The faults act as preferential pathways for advective heat transport in case of highly transmissive faults, whereas almost no fluid may be transported through poorly transmissive faults.     

Evidence for an abrupt climatic change at 8700 14C yr B.P. in rockshelters and caves of Gebel Qara (Dhofar‐Oman): Palaeoenvironmental implications

Geoarchaeological research on the sedimentary fill of rockshelters and caves in the Gebel Qara (Dhofar, Southern Oman) has revealed the onset of heavy rains at 8700 yr B.P. These rains, produced by strengthening of the Southwest monsoon, abruptly altered the dry environment dominant in the area since the Pleistocene‐Holocene transition. Comparison of cave fills from the southern and northern fringes of the Gebel Qara indicates that the monsoon effects were limited to the southern and central part of the mountain range, directly facing the sea, and did not penetrate into the Nejd Desert. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Discriminating the long distance dispersal of fine ash from sustained columns or near ground ash clouds: The example of the Pomici di Avellino eruption (Somma-Vesuvius,Italy)

Ash samples from tephra layers correlated with the Pomici di Avellino (Avellino Pumice) eruption of Somma-Vesuvius were collected in distal archives and their composition and particle morphology investigated in order to infer their behaviour of transportation and deposition. Differences in composition and particle morphologies were recognised for ash particles belonging to the magmatic Plinian and final phreatomagmatic phases of the eruption. The ash particles were dispersed in opposite directions during the two different phases of the eruption, and these directions are also different from that of coarse-grained fallout deposits. In particular, ash generated during magmatic phase and injected in the atmosphere to form a sustained column shows a prevailing SE dispersion, while ash particles generated during the final phreatomagmatic phase and carried by pyroclastic density currents show a general NW dispersion. These opposite dispersions indicate an ash dispersal influenced by both high and low atmosphere dynamics. In particular, the magmatic ash dispersal was first driven by stratospheric wind towards NE and then the falling particles encountered a variable wind field during their settling, which produced the observed preferential SE dispersal. The wind field encountered by the rising ash clouds that accompanied the pyroclastic density currents of the final phreatomagmatic phase was different with respect to that encountered by the magmatic ash, and produced a NW dispersal. These data demonstrate how ash transportation and deposition are greatly influenced by both high and low atmosphere dynamics. In particular, fine-grained particles transported in ash clouds of small-scale pyroclastic density currents may be dispersed over distances and cover areas comparable with those injected into the stratosphere by Plinian, sustained columns. This is a point not completely addressed by present day mitigation plans in case of renewal of activity at Somma-Vesuvius, and can yield important information also for other volcanoes potentially characterised by explosive activity.     

Tafoni development in a cryotic environment: an example from Northern Victoria Land,Antarctica

Tafoni are a type of cavernous weathering widespread around the world. Despite the extensive distribution of the tafoni, their genesis is not clear and is still a matter of debate, also because they occur in such different climatic conditions and on so many different types of substrate. Geomorphological characterization of more than 60 tafoni in three different Antarctic sites (two coastal and one inland) between 74 and 76° S with sampling of weathering products and salt occurrences are described together with thermal data (on different surfaces) and wind speed recorded in different periods of the year in a selected tafone close to the Italian Antarctic station. The aim of this present study is to provide further information to help understand the processes involved in the growth of tafoni in a cryotic environment, and the relationship of these processes to climate, with particular attention to the thermal regime and the role of wind. The new data presented in this paper suggest that there is no single key factor that drives the tafoni development, although thermal stress seems the most efficient process, particularly if we consider the short‐term fluctuations. The data also confirm that other thermal processes, such as freezing–thawing cycles and thermal shock, are not really effective for the development of tafoni in this area. The wind speed measured within the tafoni is half that recorded outside, thus favouring snow accumulation within the tafoni and therefore promoting salt crystallization. On the other hand, the wind effect on the thermal regime within the tafoni seems negligible. While both salt weathering and thermal stress appear active in this cryotic environment, these are azonal processes and are therefore active in other climatic areas where tafoni are widespread (such as the Mediterranean region). Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Weathering of granite in Antarctica: II. Thermal stress at the grain scale

Granular disintegration has long been recognized and referred to in weathering texts from all environments, including the Antarctic. Despite this universal identification and referral, few to no data exist regarding thermal conditions at this scale and causative mechanisms remain little more than conjecture. Here, as part of a larger weathering study, thermal data of individual grains (using infrared thermometry and ultra‐fine thermocouples) composing a coarse granite, as well as the thermal gradients in the outer 10 cm (using thermistors), were collected from a north‐facing exposure. Measurements were also made regarding the surface roughness of the rock. Based on recorded temperatures, the nature of the rock surface and the properties of the minerals, an argument is made for complex stress fields that lead to granular disintegration. Mineral to mineral temperature differences found to occur were, in part, due to the changing exposure to solar radiation through the day (and through seasons). Because the thermal conductivity and the coefficient of thermal expansion of quartz are not equal in all directions, coupled with the vagaries of heating, this leads to inter‐granular stresses. Although fracture toughness increases with a decrease in temperature, it is suggested that the tensile forces resulting from falling temperatures are able to exceed this and produce granular disassociation. The lack of equality with respect to crystal axis of both thermal conductivity and expansion in quartz further exacerbates the propensity to failure. Grain size and porosity also influence the thermal stresses and may help explain why some grains are held in place despite disassociation near the surface. While the data presented here appear to beg more questions than providing answers, they do provide a basis for better, more detailed studies of this important weathering scale. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Monitored Natural Attenuation of Manufactured Gas Plant Tar Mono- and Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in Ground Water: A 14-Year Field Study

Site 24 was the subject of a 14-year (5110-day) study of a ground water plume created by the disposal of manufactured gas plant (MGP) tar into a shallow sandy aquifer approximately 25 years prior to the study. The ground water plume in 1988 extended from a well-defined source area to a distance of approximately 400 m down gradient. A system of monitoring wells was installed along six transects that ran perpendicular to the longitudinal axis of the plume centerline. The MGP tar source was removed from the site in 1991 and a 14-year ground water monitored natural attenuation (MNA) study commenced. The program measured the dissolved mono- and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (MAHs and PAHs) periodically over time, which decreased significantly over the 14-year period. Naphthalene decreased to less than 99% of the original dissolved mass, with mass degradation rates of 0.30 per year (half-life 2.3 years). Bulk attenuation rate constants for plume centerline concentrations over time ranged from 0.33 ± 0.09 per year (half-life 2.3 ± 0.8 years) for toluene and 0.45 ± 0.06 per year (half-life 1.6 ± 0.2 years) for naphthalene. The hydrogeologic setting at Site 24, having a sandy aquifer, shallow water table, clay confining layer, and aerobic conditions, was ideal for demonstrating MNA. However, these results demonstrate that MNA is a viable remedial strategy for ground water at sites impacted by MAHs and PAHs after the original source is removed, stabilized, or contained.     

Solar activity and life: a review

During the early stages of the study of the origin of life, not enough attention was paid to the question of the correlation of chemical evolution on Earth and the all-important evolution of the still-to-be understood early Sun. Today, due to the advent of a significant fleet of space missions and the possibility of performing experiments in the International Space Station (ISS), a meaningful study begins to be possible concerning factors that led to an early onset of life on Earth. We wish to review and update recent work concerning the frontier between Space Weather (SpW) and Astrobiology. We argue that the present robust programs of various space agencies reinforce our hope for a better understanding of the bases of Astrobiology. Eventually, with a more realistic model of the Sun, more reliable discussions of all the factors influencing the origin of life on Earth, and hence Astrobiology, will be possible.     

The Afragola settlement near Vesuvius,Italy: The destruction and abandonment of a Bronze Age village revealed by archaeology,volcanology and rock-magnetism

Public works in progress in the Campanian plain north of Somma-Vesuvius recently encountered the remains of a prehistoric settlement close to the town of Afragola. Rescue excavations brought to light a Bronze Age village partially destroyed and buried by pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) of the Vesuvian Pomici di Avellino eruption (3.8 ¹⁴C ka BP) and subsequently sealed by alluvial deposits. Volcanological and rock-magnetic investigations supplemented the excavations.Careful comparison between volcanological and archaeological stratigraphies led to an understanding of the timing of the damage the buildings suffered when they were struck by a series of PDCs. The first engulfed the village, located some 14 km to the north of the inferred vent, and penetrated into the dwellings without causing major damage. The buildings were able to withstand the weak dynamic pressure of the currents and deviate their path, as shown by the magnetic fabric analyses. Some later collapsed under the load of the deposits piled up by successive currents. Stepwise demagnetization of the thermal remanent magnetization (TRM) carried by potsherds embedded in the deposits yields deposition temperatures in the order of 260–320 °C, fully consistent with those derived from pottery and lithic fragments from other distal and proximal sites. The fairly uniform temperature of the deposits is here ascribed to the lack of pervasive air entrainment into the currents. This, in turn, resulted from the lack of major topographical obstacles along the flat plain.The coupling of structural damage and sedimentological analyses indicates that the currents were not destructive in the Afragola area, but TRM data indicate they were still hot enough to cause death or severe injury to humans and animals. The successful escape of the entire population is apparent from the lack of human remains and from thousands of human footprints on the surface of the deposits left by the first PDCs. People were thus able to walk barefoot across the already emplaced deposits and escape the subsequent PDCs. The rapid cooling of the deposits was probably due to both their thinness and heat dissipation due to condensation of water vapour released in the mixture by magma–water interaction.