Warming permafrost in European mountains

Here we present the first systematic measurements of European mountain permafrost temperatures from a latitudinal transect of six boreholes extending from the Alps, through Scandinavia to Svalbard. Boreholes were drilled in bedrock to depths of at least 100 m between May 1998 and September 2000. Geothermal profiles provide evidence for regional-scale secular warming, since all are nonlinear, with near-surface warm-side temperature deviations from the deeper thermal gradient. Topographic effects lead to variability between Alpine sites. First approximation estimates, based on curvature within the borehole thermal profiles, indicate a maximum ground surface warming of +1 °C in Svalbard, considered to relate to thermal changes in the last 100 years. In addition, a 15-year time series of thermal data from the 58-m-deep Murtèl–Corvatsch permafrost borehole in Switzerland, drilled in creeping frozen ice-rich rock debris, shows an overall warming trend, but with high-amplitude interannual fluctuations that reflect early winter snow cover more strongly than air temperatures. Thus interpretation of the deeper borehole thermal histories must clearly take account of the potential effects of changing snow cover in addition to atmospheric temperatures.     

A new view of the He-Ar-CO2 degassing at mid-ocean ridges: Homogeneous composition of magmas from the upper mantle

Deep-sea exploration is rapidly improving our understanding of volatiles geochemistry in mid-ocean-ridge igneous products. It is also placing greater constraints on degassing processes of the Earth’s mantle, with the result that degassing models based on vapour-melt equilibrium are no longer able to explain the increasing number of data. In fact, such models force to postulate an upper mantle strongly heterogeneous at any scale, and cannot account for the widespread carbon supersaturation of the recovered igneous products. Here we review the global He-Ar-CO₂ dataset of fluid inclusions in mid-ocean-ridge glasses using the framework of advanced modelling of multicomponent bubble growth in magmas. We display that non-equilibrium fractionations among He, Ar and CO₂, driven by their different diffusivities in silicate melts, are common in most of the natural conditions of magma decompression and their signature strongly depends on pressure of degassing. Due to the comparable Ar and CO₂ diffusivity, magma degassing at low pressure fractionates both the He/Ar and He/CO₂ ratio by a similar extent, while the slower CO₂ diffusion at high pressure causes early kinetic effects on Ar/CO₂ ratio and dramatically changes the degassing path. On this ground, the very different geochemical signatures among suites of data coming from different ridge segments mainly depend on the depth of the magma chamber where the melt was stored. Besides, the variations inside a single suite highlight variable ascent speed and cooling rate of the emplaced lava. The large variations in both the He/CO₂ and Ar/CO₂ ratios at almost constant He/Ar, displayed in glasses coming from the Mid-Atlantic Ridge 24-30°N segment and the Rodriguez Triple Junction, are therefore interpreted as a high-pressure signature. In contrast, the simultaneous increase in both He/CO₂ and He/Ar of the East Pacific Rise, Pito Seamount and South-East Indian Ridge data sets suggests the dominance of low-pressure fractionation, implying that the shallow magma chambers are at a lower depth than those of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge 24-30°N and Rodriguez Triple Junction. Our conclusions support the presence of a relationship between spreading rate and depth of high-temperature zones below ridges, and are consistent with the depth of magma chambers as suggested from seismic studies. Non-equilibrium degassing explains the volatile systematics of mid-ocean-ridge basalts by starting from a single mantle-derived magma, dispensing with the supposed need for heterogeneities in abundance ratios of volatiles in the mantle below oceanic ridges.     

On some aspects of peaks-over-threshold modeling of floods under nonstationarity using climate covariates

This paper discusses some aspects of flood frequency analysis using the peaks-over-threshold model with Poisson arrivals and generalized Pareto (GP) distributed peak magnitudes under nonstationarity, using climate covariates. The discussion topics were motivated by a case study on the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on the flood regime in the Itajaí river basin, in Southern Brazil. The Niño3.4 (DJF) index is used as a covariate in nonstationary estimates of the Poisson and GP distributions scale parameters. Prior to the positing of parametric dependence functions, a preliminary data-driven analysis was carried out using nonparametric regression models to estimate the dependence of the parameters on the covariate. Model fits were evaluated using asymptotic likelihood ratio tests, AIC, and Q–Q plots. Results show statistically significant and complex dependence relationships with the covariate on both nonstationary parameters. The nonstationary flood hazard measure design life level (DLL) was used to compare the relative performances of stationary and nonstationary models in quantifying flood hazard over the period of records. Uncertainty analyses were carried out in every step of the application using the delta method.     

Holocene seasonal sea‐surface temperature variations in the southern Adriatic Sea inferred from a multiproxy approach

Holocene cooling events have been reconstructed for the southern Adriatic Sea (central Mediterranean) by means of analyses of organic walled dinoflagellate cysts, planktonic foraminifera, oxygen isotopes, calcareous nanoplankton, alkenones and pollen from a sediment core. Two cooling events have been detected, during which sea‐surface temperatures (SSTs) were ca. 2°C lower. Unravelling the SST signal into dominant seasonal components suggests maximum winter cooling of 2°C at around 6.0 ka, whereas the cooling at ca. 3.0 ka might be the result of a spring temperature cooling of 2–3°C. The events, lasting several hundred years, are apparently synchronous with those in the Aegean Sea, where they have been related to known cooling events from the Greenland ice‐core record. A distinct interruption in Adriatic Sea sapropel S1 is not clearly accompanied by a local drop in winter temperatures, but seems to be forced by ventilation, which probably occurred earlier in the Aegean Sea and was subsequently transmitted to the Adriatic Sea. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of soil-engineering properties on the failure mode of shallow landslides

Some landslides mobilize into flows, while others slide and deposit material immediately down slope. An index based on initial dry density and fine-grained content of soil predicted failure mode of 96 landslide initiation sites in Oregon and Colorado with 79% accuracy. These material properties can be used to identify potential sources for debris flows and for slides. Field data suggest that loose soils can evolve from dense soils that dilate upon shearing. The method presented herein to predict failure mode is most applicable for shallow (depth <5?m), well-graded soils (coefficient of uniformity >8), with few to moderate fines (fine-grained content <18%), and with liquid limits <40.     

Limestone Provenance in Roman Lime‐Volcanic Ash Mortars from the Villa dei Quintili,Rome

Roman mortars were collected from the Villa dei Quintili in Rome, an archaeological site consisting of numerous edifices from nine construction phases dating from the 2nd century A.D. to modern times. A multianalytical approach was used on 34 mortar samples to infer the evolution of production techniques over time and to identify the source area of calcareous raw materials used in the preparation of the lime. Optical microscopy, scanning electron microscopy coupled with an energy‐dispersive system, and laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry were used to study the samples. The major and trace element data were compared with the compositions of two types of limestone samples (Calcare Massiccio and Calcare Maiolica) collected from the Cornicolani Mountains. The results suggest that the technological practices and the calcareous raw materials used for lime production remained unchanged over the time period considered (2nd century A.D. to 3rd century A.D.). The compositions of lime‐related particles in the mortars match those of Calcare Maiolica, which suggests its use as raw material for lime production. On the whole, the results are in agreement with data from existing literature regarding both the use by Roman builders of specific raw materials for the mortars’ production and the relative supply area.     

Fossil mollusc-faunas: Their bearing on the Holocene evolution of the Lower Central Plain of Bangkok (Thailand)

In this work, fossil molluscan assemblages are analyzed in order to reconstruct the evolution of the Northern Gulf of Thailand during the Holocene. The marine sediments (Bangkok Clay Formation) of the Lower Central Plain of Bangkok and the coastal plain of Phetchaburi were sampled at 16 localities, obtaining fossil shells and mangrove peat whose ¹⁴C ages range from 9000 to 2000 CYBP. A statistical treatment of abundance data returned four major groups, namely the Dendostrea rosacea association (intertidal mud), the Corbula fortisulcata–Mactra luzonica association (shallow infralittoral sandy mud), the Nuculana mauritiana–Timoclea scabra association (infralittoral sand spit) and the Timoclea scabra–Arcopagia pudica association (infralittoral mud). The data allowed both a stratigraphic correlation along two transects covering all of the Holocene basin and the creation of digitalized maps showing the presumable extension of the Thai paleogulf around the apex of Flandrian transgression event (about 5500 CYBP).     

A comparison of seismic risk maps for Italy

National seismic risk maps are an important risk mitigation tool as they can be used for the prioritization of regions within a country where retrofitting of the building stock or other risk mitigation measures should take place. The production of a seismic risk map involves the convolution of seismic hazard data, vulnerability predictions for the building stock and exposure data. The seismic risk maps produced in Italy over the past 10 years are compared in this paper with recent proposals for seismic risk maps based on state-of-the-art seismic hazard data and mechanics-based vulnerability assessment procedures. The aim of the paper is to open the discussion for the way in which future seismic risk maps could be produced, making use of the most up-to-date information in the fields of seismic hazard evaluation and vulnerability assessment.