The Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005, 15–42 ka. Part 2: comparison to other records

A new Greenland Ice Core Chronology (GICC05) based on multi-parameter counting of annual layers has been obtained for the last 42 ka. Here we compare the glacial part of the new time scale, which is based entirely on records from the NorthGRIP ice core, to existing time scales and reference horizons covering the same period. These include the GRIP and NorthGRIP modelled time scales, the Meese-Sowers GISP2 counted time scale, the Shackleton–Fairbanks GRIP time scale (SFCP04) based on ¹⁴C calibration of a marine core, the Hulu Cave record, three volcanic reference horizons, and the Laschamp geomagnetic excursion event occurring around Greenland Interstadial 10. GICC05 is generally in good long-term agreement with the existing Greenland ice core chronologies and with the Hulu Cave record, but on shorter time scales there are significant discrepancies. Around the Last Glacial Maximum there is a more than 1 ka age difference between GICC05 and SFCP04 and a more than 0.5 ka discrepancy in the same direction between GICC05 and the age of a recently identified tephra layer in the NorthGRIP ice core. Both SFCP04 and the tephra age are based on ¹⁴C-dated marine cores and fixed marine reservoir ages. For the Laschamp event, GICC05 agrees with a recent independent dating within the uncertainties.     

Coronal Density Structures and CMEs: Superior Solar Conjunctions of Mars Express, Venus Express, and Rosetta: 2004, 2006, and 2008

Coronal radio-sounding experiments were carried out using the S-band (2.3 GHz) and X-band (8.4 GHz) signals of the ESA Mars Express, Venus Express, and Rosetta spacecraft during five superior conjunctions occurring in 2004, 2006 (3×), and 2008/2009. Differential frequency and propagation delay (ranging) observations were recorded during these opportunities over the better part of a solar cycle, yielding information on the large-scale structure of the coronal electron-density distribution and its variations, including fluctuations on time scales from seconds to hours. These results concern primarily regions of slow solar wind because the radio propagation path is generally confined to the low heliolatitude regions by the conjunction. The mean frequency fluctuation and total electron content are determined as a function of heliocentric distance, and, with a few exceptions caused by streamers and CMEs, are found to be consistent with previous results from experiments on Ulysses. Dense coronal streamers and several coronal mass ejection (CME) events were identified in the radio-frequency data, some of which were observed in white light by the LASCO coronagraphs onboard SOHO. For those events with sufficient mutual coverage, good correlations are found between the electron-content fluctuations and structure imaged by the LASCO instrument.     

A noble gas and cosmogenic radionuclide analysis of two ordinary chondrites from Almahata Sitta

Abstract– We present the results of a noble gas (He, Ne, Ar) and cosmogenic radionuclide (¹⁰Be, ²⁶Al, ³⁶Cl) analysis of two chondritic fragments (#A100, L4 and #25, H5) found in the Almahata Sitta strewn field in Sudan. We confirm their earlier attribution to the same fall as the ureilites dominating the strewn field, based on the following findings: (1) both chondrite samples indicate a preatmospheric radius of approximately 300 g cm^?2, consistent with the preatmospheric size of asteroid 2008 TC₃ that produced the Almahata Sitta strewn field; (2) both have, within error, a ²¹Ne/²⁶Al‐based cosmic ray exposure age of approximately 20 Ma, identical to the reported ages of Almahata Sitta ureilites; (3) both exhibit hints of ureilitic Ar in the trapped component. We discuss a possible earlier irradiation phase for the two fragments of approximately 10–20 Ma, visible only in cosmogenic ³⁸Ar. We also discuss the approximately 3.8 Ga (⁴He) and approximately 4.6 Ga (⁴⁰Ar) gas retention ages, measured in both chondritic fragments. These imply that the two chondrite fragments were incorporated into the ureilite host early in solar system evolution, and that the parent asteroid from which 2008 TC₃ is derived has not experienced a large break‐up event in the last 3.8 Ga.     

Social integration matters: factors influencing natural hazard risk preparedness—a survey of Swiss households

Natural Hazards - Building a culture of risk is an essential objective within the integrated risk management paradigm. Challenges arise both due to increasing damage from natural hazards and the...     

Simultaneity as a challenge for development

Societies in the Global South are simultaneously confronted with various challenges that societies in the Global North faced over a long period of time. From the beginning of the 18th century the Global North has faced challenges in line with its industrialization and modernization processes including population growth with the necessity to feed that growing population, rapid urbanization or infrastructure development. Solving these challenges during past centuries has led to highly developed societies but produced new threats: environmental degradation and climate change—features of Beck’s ‘reflexive modernity’. Today, societies in the Global South not only face similar challenges such as population growth, malnutrition or lacking infrastructure, but also the consequences of the human-made environmental change and its related risks. Change in the Global South has reached a previously unseen pace and notable simultaneity. This paper aims to operationalise and visualise the challenge of simultaneity. By identifying six indicators for three main issues, the extent of simultaneity will be analysed using the examples of Kenya, India, Brazil and Germany. The findings show that simultaneity is a key challenge for current social, economic and ecological transformations in the Global South.     

Probabilistic assessment of the impact of coal seam gas development on groundwater: Surat Basin,Australia

Modelling cumulative impacts of basin-scale coal seam gas (CSG) extraction is challenging due to the long time frames and spatial extent over which impacts occur combined with the need to consider local-scale processes. The computational burden of such models limits the ability to undertake calibration and sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. A framework is presented that integrates recently developed methods and tools to address the computational burdens of an assessment of drawdown impacts associated with rapid CSG development in the Surat Basin, Australia. The null space Monte Carlo method combined with singular value decomposition (SVD)-assisted regularisation was used to analyse the uncertainty of simulated drawdown impacts. The study also describes how the computational burden of assessing local-scale impacts was mitigated by adopting a novel combination of a nested modelling framework which incorporated a model emulator of drawdown in dual-phase flow conditions, and a methodology for representing local faulting. This combination provides a mechanism to support more reliable estimates of regional CSG-related drawdown predictions. The study indicates that uncertainties associated with boundary conditions are reduced significantly when expressing differences between scenarios. The results are analysed and distilled to enable the easy identification of areas where the simulated maximum drawdown impacts could exceed trigger points associated with legislative ‘make good’ requirements; trigger points require that either an adjustment in the development scheme or other measures are implemented to remediate the impact. This report contributes to the currently small body of work that describes modelling and uncertainty analyses of CSG extraction impacts on groundwater.     

Analysis of change in relative uncertainty in GHG emissions from stationary sources for the EU 15

Total uncertainty in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions changes over time due to “learning” and structural changes in GHG emissions. Understanding the uncertainty in GHG emissions over time is very important to better communicate uncertainty and to improve the setting of emission targets in the future. This is a diagnostic study divided into two parts. The first part analyses the historical change in the total uncertainty of CO₂ emissions from stationary sources that the member states estimate annually in their national inventory reports. The second part presents examples of changes in total uncertainty due to structural changes in GHG emissions considering the GAINS (Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies) emissions scenarios that are consistent with the EU’s “20-20-20” targets. The estimates of total uncertainty for the year 2020 are made under assumptions that relative uncertainties of GHG emissions by sector do not change in time, and with possible future uncertainty reductions for non-CO₂ emissions, which are characterized by high relative uncertainty. This diagnostic exercise shows that a driving factor of change in total uncertainty is increased knowledge of inventory processes in the past and prospective future. However, for individual countries and longer periods, structural changes in emissions could significantly influence the total uncertainty in relative terms.     

Uncertainty in an emissions-constrained world

Our study focuses on uncertainty in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from anthropogenic sources, including land use and land-use change activities. We aim to understand the relevance of diagnostic (retrospective) and prognostic (prospective) uncertainty in an emissions-temperature setting that seeks to constrain global warming and to link uncertainty consistently across temporal scales. We discuss diagnostic and prognostic uncertainty in a systems setting that allows any country to understand its national and near-term mitigation and adaptation efforts in a globally consistent and long-term context. Cumulative emissions are not only constrained and globally binding but exhibit quantitative uncertainty; and whether or not compliance with an agreed temperature target will be achieved is also uncertain. To facilitate discussions, we focus on two countries, the USA and China. While our study addresses whether or not future increase in global temperature can be kept below 2, 3, or 4 °C targets, its primary aim is to use those targets to demonstrate the relevance of both diagnostic and prognostic uncertainty. We show how to combine diagnostic and prognostic uncertainty to take more educated (precautionary) decisions for reducing emissions toward an agreed temperature target; and how to perceive combined diagnostic and prognostic uncertainty-related risk. Diagnostic uncertainty is the uncertainty contained in inventoried emission estimates and relates to the risk that true GHG emissions are greater than inventoried emission estimates reported in a specified year; prognostic uncertainty refers to cumulative emissions between a start year and a future target year, and relates to the risk that an agreed temperature target is exceeded.     

Gas migration through Opouawe Bank at the Hikurangi margin offshore New Zealand

This study presents 2D seismic reflection data, seismic velocity analysis, as well as geochemical and isotopic porewater compositions from Opouawe Bank on New Zealand’s Hikurangi subduction margin, providing evidence for essentially pure methane gas seepage. The combination of geochemical information and seismic reflection images is an effective way to investigate the nature of gas migration beneath the seafloor, and to distinguish between water advection and gas ascent. The maximum source depth of the methane that migrates to the seep sites on Opouawe Bank is 1,500–2,100 m below seafloor, generated by low-temperature degradation of organic matter via microbial CO₂ reduction. Seismic velocity analysis enabled identifying a zone of gas accumulation underneath the base of gas hydrate stability (BGHS) below the bank. Besides structurally controlled gas migration along conduits, gas migration also takes place along dipping strata across the BGHS. Gas migration on Opouawe Bank is influenced by anticlinal focusing and by several focusing levels within the gas hydrate stability zone.