A probabilistic methodology to estimate future coastal flood risk due to sea level rise

In this paper we present a methodology to estimate the probability of future coastal flooding given uncertainty over possible sea level rise. We take as an example the range of sea level rise magnitudes for 2100 contained in the IPCC Third Assessment Report [Church, J.A., Gregory, J.M., Huybrechts, P., Kuhn, M., Lambeck, K., Nhuan, M.T., Qin, D., Woodworth, P.L., Anisimov, O.A., Bryan, F.O., Cazenave, A., Dixon, K.W., Fitzharris, B.B., Flato, G.M., Ganopolski, A., Gornitz, V., Lowe, J.A., Noda, A., Oberhuber, J.M., O'Farrell, S.P., Ohmura, A., Oppenheimer, M., Peltier, W.R., Raper, S.C.B., Ritz, C., Russell, G.L., Schlosser, E., Shum, C.K., Stocker, T.F., Stouffer, R.J., van de Wal, R.S.W., Voss, R., Wiebe, E.C., Wild, M., Wingham, D.J. and Zwally, H.J., 2001. Changes in sea level. In Houghton, J.T. et al. (eds), Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 881pp.] and infer a plausible probability distribution for this range. We then use a Monte Carlo procedure to sample from this distribution and use the resulting values as an additional boundary forcing for a two-dimensional model of coastal inundation used to simulate a 1 in 200 year extreme water level event. This yields an ensemble of simulations for an event of this magnitude occurring in 2100, where each member represents a different possible scenario of sea level rise by this time. We then develop a methodology to approximate the probability of flooding in each model grid cell over the ensemble and by combining these hazards maps with maps of land use values (consequence) we are able to estimate spatial contributions to flood risk that can aid planning and investment decisions. The method is then applied to a 32 km section of the UK coast in Somerset, South-West England and used to estimate the monetary losses and risk due a 1 in 200 year recurrence interval event under: (a) current conditions; (b) with the IPCC's most plausible value for sea level rise by 2100 (0.48 m) and (c) using the above methodology to fully account for uncertainty over possible sea level rise. The analysis shows that undertaking a risk assessment using the most plausible sea level rise value may significantly underestimate monetary losses as it fails to account for the impact of low probability, high consequence events. The developed method provides an objective basis for decisions regarding future defence spending and can be easily extended to consider other sources of uncertainty such as changing event frequency–magnitude distribution, changing storm surge conditions or model structural uncertainty, either singly or in combination as joint probabilities.     

The impact of scour processes on a smothered reef system in the Irish Sea

The Irish Sea, like many marine areas, is threatened by anthropogenic activities. In particular the Pisces Reef system, a series of smothered rocky reefs are subject to fishing pressures as a result of their position within a Nephrops norvegicus fishery. In an area of sediment deposition and retention the reefs modify the environment by increasing the energy of near-bottom currents which results in localised scouring. This is the first study to attempt to characterise and investigate the ecological functioning of the Pisces Reef system. A multidisciplinary approach was essential for accurate investigation of the area. To facilitate more effective management of the benthic habitats of the Reef system, this study integrates acoustic, seismic, grab sampling and video ground-truthing methods for benthic habitat discrimination. Orientation of the scour hollows also suggest that seabed features could be used to infer dominant flow regimes such as the Irish Sea Gyre. The data revealed significant geology–benthos relationships. A unique biotope was described for the reef habitat and it was demonstrated that scouring may influence community composition through disturbance mechanisms. This study provides preliminary information required for management of a unique habitat within a uniform region.     

Accretionary lapilli from the Sudbury impact event

Meteorite impact‐generated accretionary lapilli are not well studied. The recently discovered distal ejecta from the 1850 Ma Sudbury impact event contain abundant accretionary lapilli generated during the impact and deposited at great distances from the crater. We petrographically and geochemically examined lapilli from five sites (McClure, Connors Creek, Hwy 588, Pine River, and Grand Trunk Pacific, approximately 480–750 km from the center of the Sudbury structure). The compositions of quartz, K‐feldspar, calcite, biotite, and chlorite minerals are similar to each other in all of the samples, although the relative proportions of the minerals vary from site to site. The lapilli occur in a matrix of coarse‐grained quartz, carbonate, and feldspar grains. Zonation within lapilli appears to be due to grain size distribution rather than compositional variation. The inner zones are coarser grained than outer zones. The relative abundances of calcite, phyllosilicates, and feldspars are similar in each zone within individual lapilli. A meteoritic component is indicated by up to 1.8 ppb Ir in one lapillus from the Pine River site, and Ni and Cr ratios are on a chondritic trend line for many of the lapilli. Mechanisms previously proposed for accretionary lapilli formation seem inadequate to explain deposition of distal accretionary lapilli resulting from impact events. A new mechanism for upper atmospheric accretion is proposed, whereby ash ejected from impact events concentrates at altitudes of neutral buoyancy, where it then accretes and is deposited later than ballistically emplaced particles. Likely, multiple processes are taking place in the chaotic postimpact environment.     

Leachable particulate iron in the Columbia River,estuary, and near-field plume

This study examines the distribution of leachable particulate iron (Fe) in the Columbia River, estuary, and near-field plume. Surface samples were collected during late spring and summer of 2004–2006 as part of four River Influence on Shelf Ecosystems (RISE) cruises. Tidal amplitude and river flow are the primary factors influencing the estuary leachable particulate Fe concentrations, with greater values during high flow and/or spring tides. Near the mouth of the estuary, leachable particulate Fe [defined as the particulate Fe solubilized with a 25% acetic acid (pH 2) leach containing a weak reducing agent to reduce Fe oxyhydroxides and a short heating step to access intracellular Fe] averaged 770 nM during either spring tide or high flow, compared to 320 nM during neap tide, low flow conditions. In the near-field Columbia River plume, elevated leachable particulate Fe concentrations occur during spring tides and/or higher river flow, with resuspended shelf sediment as an additional source to the plume during periods of coastal upwelling and spring tides. Near-field plume concentrations of leachable particulate Fe (at a salinity of 20) averaged 660 nM during either spring tide or high flow, compared to 300 nM during neap tide, low flow conditions. Regardless of tidal amplitude and river flow, leachable particulate Fe concentrations in both the river/estuary and near-field plume are consistently one to two orders of magnitude greater than dissolved Fe concentrations. The Columbia River is an important source of reactive Fe to the productive coastal waters off Oregon and Washington, and leachable particulate Fe is available for solubilization following biological drawdown of the dissolved phase. Elevated leachable Fe concentrations allow coastal waters influenced by the Columbia River plume to remain Fe-replete and support phytoplankton production during the spring and summer seasons.     

Guiding ecological principles for marine spatial planning

The declining health of marine ecosystems around the world is evidence that current piecemeal governance is inadequate to successfully support healthy coastal and ocean ecosystems and sustain human uses of the ocean. One proposed solution to this problem is ecosystem-based marine spatial planning (MSP), which is a process that informs the spatial distribution of activities in the ocean so that existing and emerging uses can be maintained, use conflicts reduced, and ecosystem health and services protected and sustained for future generations. Because a key goal of ecosystem-based MSP is to maintain the delivery of ecosystem services that humans want and need, it must be based on ecological principles that articulate the scientifically recognized attributes of healthy, functioning ecosystems. These principles should be incorporated into a decision-making framework with clearly defined targets for these ecological attributes. This paper identifies ecological principles for MSP based on a synthesis of previously suggested and/or operationalized principles, along with recommendations generated by a group of twenty ecologists and marine scientists with diverse backgrounds and perspectives on MSP. The proposed four main ecological principles to guide MSP—maintaining or restoring: native species diversity, habitat diversity and heterogeneity, key species, and connectivity—and two additional guidelines, the need to account for context and uncertainty, must be explicitly taken into account in the planning process. When applied in concert with social, economic, and governance principles, these ecological principles can inform the designation and siting of ocean uses and the management of activities in the ocean to maintain or restore healthy ecosystems, allow delivery of marine ecosystem services, and ensure sustainable economic and social benefits.     

A diverse Pleistocene marsupial trackway assemblage from the Victorian Volcanic Plains,Australia

A diverse assemblage of late Pleistocene marsupial trackways on a lake bed in south-western Victoria provides the first information relating to the gaits and morphology of several megafaunal species, and represents the most speciose and best preserved megafaunal footprint site in Australia. The 60–110 ka volcaniclastic lacustrine sedimentary rocks preserve trackways of the diprotodontid Diprotodon optatum, a macropodid (probably Protemnodon sp.) and a large vombatid (perhaps Ramsayia magna or ‘Phascolomys’ medius) and possible prints of the marsupial lion, Thylacoleo carnifex. The footprints were imprinted within a short time period, demonstrating the association of the taxa present, rather than the time-averaged accumulations usually observed in skeletal fossil deposits. Individual manus and pes prints are distinguishable in some trackways, and in many cases some digital pad morphology is also present. Several parameters traditionally used to differentiate ichnotaxa, including trackway gauge and the degree of print in-turning relative to the midline, are shown to be subject to significant intraspecific variation in marsupials. Sexual dimorphism in the trackway proportions of Diprotodon, and its potential for occurrence in all large bodied, quadrupedal marsupials, is identified here for the first time.     

Impact of artificial subsurface drainage on groundwater travel times and baseflow discharge in an agricultural watershed,Iowa (USA)

Pollutant delivery through artificial subsurface drainage networks to streams is an important transport mechanism, yet the impact of drainage tiles on groundwater hydrology at the watershed scale has not been well documented. In this study, we developed a two‐dimensional, steady‐state groundwater flow model for a representative Iowa agricultural watershed to simulate the impact of tile drainage density and incision depth on groundwater travel times and proportion of baseflow contributed by tile drains. Varying tile drainage density from 0 to 0.0038 m^?1, while maintaining a constant tile incision depth at 1.2 m, resulted in the mean groundwater travel time to decrease exponentially from 40 years to 19 years and increased the tile contribution to baseflow from 0% to an upper bound of 37%. In contrast, varying tile depths from 0.3 to 2.7 m, while maintaining a constant tile drainage density of 0.0038 m^?1, caused mean travel times to decrease linearly from 22 to 18 years and increased the tile contribution to baseflow from 30% to 54% in a near‐linear manner. The decrease in the mean travel time was attributed to decrease in the saturated thickness of the aquifer with increasing drainage density and incision depth. Study results indicate that tile drainage affects fundamental watershed characteristics and should be taken into consideration when evaluating water and nitrate export from agricultural regions. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

High‐ to ultrahigh‐temperature metamorphism in the lower crust: An example resulting from Hikurangi Plateau collision and slab rollback in New Zealand

Lower crustal xenoliths erupted from an intraplate diatreme reveal that a portion of the New Zealand Gondwana margin experienced high‐temperature (HT) to ultrahigh‐temperature (UHT) granulite facies metamorphism just after flat slab subduction ceased at c. 110–105 Ma. P–T calculations for garnet–orthopyroxene‐bearing felsic granulite xenoliths indicate equilibration at ~815 to 910°C and 0.7 to 0.8 GPa, with garnet‐bearing mafic granulite xenoliths yielding at least 900°C. Supporting evidence for the attainment of HT and UHT conditions in felsic granulite comes from re‐integration of exsolution in feldspar (~900–950°C at 0.8 GPa), Ti‐in‐zircon thermometry on Y‐depleted overgrowths on detrital zircon grains (932°C ± 24°C at aTiO₂ = 0.8 ± 0.2), and correlation of observed assemblages and mineral compositions with thermodynamic modelling results (≥850°C at 0.7 to 0.8 GPa). The thin zircon overgrowths, which were mainly targeted by drilling through the cores of grains, yield a U–Pb pooled age of 91.7 ± 2.0 Ma. The cause of Late Cretaceous HT‐UHT metamorphism on the Zealandia Gondwana margin is attributed to collision and partial subduction of the buoyant oceanic Hikurangi Plateau in the Early Cretaceous. The halt of subduction caused the fore‐running shallowly dipping slab to rollback towards the trench position and permitted the upper mantle to rapidly increase the geothermal gradient through the base of the extending (former) accretionary prism. This sequence of events provides a mechanism for achieving regional HT–UHT conditions in the lower crust with little or no sign of this event at the surface.