A polygon-based modeling approach to assess exposure of resources and assets to wildfire

Spatially explicit burn probability modeling is increasingly applied to assess wildfire risk and inform mitigation strategy development. Burn probabilities are typically expressed on a per-pixel basis, calculated as the number of times a pixel burns divided by the number of simulation iterations. Spatial intersection of highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs) with pixel-based burn probability estimates enables quantification of HVRA exposure to wildfire in terms of expected area burned. However, statistical expectations can mask variability in HVRA area burned across all simulated fires. We present an alternative, polygon-based formulation for deriving estimates of HVRA area burned. This effort enhances investigations into spatial patterns of fire occurrence and behavior by overlaying simulated fire perimeters with mapped HVRA polygons to estimate conditional distributions of HVRA area burned. This information can be especially useful for assessing risks where cumulative effects and the spatial pattern and extent of area burned influence HVRA response to fire. We illustrate our modeling approach and demonstrate application across real-world landscapes for two case studies: first, a comparative analysis of exposure and area burned across ten municipal watersheds on the Beaverhead-Deerlodge National Forest in Montana, USA, and second, fireshed delineation and exposure analysis of a geographically isolated and limited area of critical wildlife habitat on the Pike and San Isabel National Forests in Colorado, USA. We highlight how this information can be used to inform prioritization and mitigation decisions and can be used complementarily with more traditional pixel-based burn probability and fire intensity metrics in an expanded exposure analysis framework.     

Mineralogical and spectroscopic investigation of the Tagish Lake carbonaceous chondrite by X‐ray diffraction and infrared reflectance spectroscopy

Abstract– We have carried out a sample‐correlated spectroscopic and mineralogical investigation of samples from seven different collection sites of the Tagish Lake C2 chondrite. Rietveld refinement of high‐resolution powder X‐ray diffraction (XRD) data was used to determine quantitative major mineral abundances. Thermal infrared (400–4500 cm⁻¹, 2.2–25.0 μm) spectra of the same samples were obtained using diffuse (biconical) reflectance infrared Fourier transform spectroscopy (DRIFTS). Our results are in good agreement with previous studies of the mineralogy of the Tagish Lake meteorite; we find however that Tagish Lake is more varied in major mineralogy than has previously been reported. In particular, we observed two new distinct lithologies, an inclusion‐poor magnetite‐ and sulfide‐rich lithology, and a carbonate‐rich, siderite‐dominated lithology in addition to the previously documented carbonate‐rich and carbonate‐poor lithologies. Grain density for each Tagish Lake sample was calculated from the measured mineral modal abundances and known mineral densities. For powders from three originally intact inclusion‐rich samples, the calculated grain density is 2.77 ± 0.05 g cm⁻³, in excellent agreement with those reported in the literature for other intact inclusion‐rich Tagish Lake samples. Tagish Lake disaggregated samples have a significantly higher calculated grain density due to their lower saponite‐serpentine content, likely a result of mineral separation in the meltwater holes from which they were collected; the disaggregated samples may not therefore adequately represent bulk samples of the Tagish Lake meteorite. The predominance of very fine‐grained material in the Tagish Lake samples investigated in this study is expected to produce infrared spectra representative of asteroidal regolith. Gypsum and talc have been found by XRD in powders from the inclusion‐rich, intact Tagish Lake samples in this study, and may have been present in the parent body; if present, these hydrous sulfates would complicate the interpretation of possible hydrated mineral features in asteroid infrared spectra.     

Collapse and recovery in a remote small island—A tale of adaptive cycles or downward spirals?

Few studies consider how social-ecological systems recover from disturbance. We consider the small semi-autonomous island of Rodrigues (Indian Ocean). Based on semi-structured interviews (n = 70), a fisher survey (n = 73), weather data and official records we build a timeline of key events. We tabulate local perceptions (5+ mentions) of changes (social, economic and natural capital) and look for signs of adaptive cycles in the island's social-ecological past. Rising human pressure and extreme weather event impacts are reported since first settlement. We propose a recent “collapse” phase catalysed in the 1970s by severe drought, based on respondents’ perceptions of still-ongoing changes in farming and fishing, water, external dependence, migration and inter-island political change. Connectivity (flows of people, goods, information, money, power) appear to have strengthed local island recovery, but degradation continued, not least due to water scarcity and a lack of shared political vision as Rodrigues became more tied into the wider world.Overall, our findings suggest social-ecological systems may get stuck in a post-collapse recovery without any new structure emerging, presuming adaptive cycles can even be detected. Data gaps and global change redefining spatial and temporal scales could mean the adaptive cycle's usefulness is limited in development policy-making contexts.     

Method for the determination of residual carbon dioxide saturation using reactive ester tracers

The mechanisms for storage of CO₂ in rock formations include structural/stratigraphic, mineral, solubility and residual trapping. Residual trapping is very important in terms of both containment security and storage capacity. However, to date, the contribution from residual trapping (i.e. immobilisation of supercritical fluid via capillarity in pore spaces) is still relatively difficult to quantify accurately. Using a laboratory-based testing program, this study demonstrates the feasibility of using reactive ester tracers (i.e. triacetin, propylene glycol diacetate and tripropionin), which partition between a mobile water phase and a stationary supercritical CO₂ phase, to quantify the residual CO₂ saturation, S_gr, of a rock formation. The proposed single-well test involves injecting these tracers into the subsurface, followed by CO₂ saturated water, where the ester tracers slowly hydrolyse to form products with differing partition coefficients. After a suitable period of time, allowing for partial hydrolysis, water containing the tracer mixture is produced from the subsurface and analysed using gas chromatography mass spectrometry (GCMS). A numerical simulator of the tracer behaviour in a reservoir is used to explain the differential breakthrough of these tracer compounds during water production to estimate S_gr. Computer modelling suggests that the use of esters tracers to determine CO₂ residual saturation is a potentially robust method. The supercritical CO₂/water partition coefficients directly dictate the amount of time that each tracer spends in the CO₂ and water phases. As such for modelling of tracer behaviour and estimating S_gr, knowing the tracer partition coefficient is essential; in this paper, the first laboratory study to determine the partition coefficients of these reactive ester tracers is described.     

An Investigation on Erodibility and Geotechnical Characteristics of Fine Grained Fluvial Soils from Lower Michigan

Scour and erosion potential of a soil are closely related to each other. Similarities or differences between them have not been defined fully and the terms are often used interchangeably or in association with one another. Erodibility is a property of soil that describes erosion potential. Therefore, a proper understanding of erodibility should help predict scour more accurately. In the past, researchers have looked into erosion of soils with the ultimate objective of understanding the erodibility with respect to the standard geotechnical properties. Most research has shown the difficulties associated with correlating erodibility to any one or more soil properties. The research described in this paper is mainly focused on the relationship between erodibility and dry unit weight of soil with varying fractions of fines. Soils tested using laboratory Jet Erosion Test (JET) indicated that the logarithm of erodibility makes a linear inverse relationship with the dry unit weight. In situ JETs confirmed the range of erodibilities established by the laboratory JETs. The best correlations between erodibility and dry unit weight appeared within a single category of soil as classified by the Unified Soil Classification System. In addition, it was also determined that the logarithm of erodibility is inversely related to the angle of internal friction of the fluvial soils tested during this investigation.     

The brightening of Saturn’s F ring

Image photometry reveals that the F ring is approximately twice as bright during the Cassini tour as it was during the Voyager flybys of 1980 and 1981. It is also three times as wide and has a higher integrated optical depth. We have performed photometric measurements of more than 4800 images of Saturn’s F ring taken over a 5-year period with Cassini’s Narrow Angle Camera. We show that the ring is not optically thin in many observing geometries and apply a photometric model based on single-scattering in the presence of shadowing and obscuration, deriving a mean effective optical depth τ ≈ 0.033. Stellar occultation data from Voyager PPS and Cassini VIMS validate both the optical depth and the width measurements. In contrast to this decades-scale change, the baseline properties of the F ring have not changed significantly from 2004 to 2009. However, we have investigated one major, bright feature that appeared in the ring in late 2006. This transient feature increased the ring’s overall mean brightness by 84% and decayed with a half-life of 91 days.     

Observations of the Sediment-Water Interface: Marine and Fresh Water Environments

The sediment at the interface immediately beneath the water column is distinct from deeper-lying sediments in its properties and, at least quantitatively, in the processes driving diagenesis. Progress in understanding the sediment-water interface can be based on consideration of fundamentals of biogeochemical particle / fluid interactions and on application of certain biological techniques especially suited to this challenging portion of the sediment column. This article reports results achieved by combining theoretical fundamentals and specialized experimental techniques in the study of the interface from selected depositional environments. For fine-grained and sandy deposits from fresh-water to coastal marine environments, the interface is characterized by exaggerated microrelief, great porosity, and significant biological alteration. Additional application of this research approach is poised to further our understanding of engineering, and acoustic and xenochemical responses of sedimentary materials, with special emphasis on the influence of the bio-organic phase of the interface upon its fabric and physical properties.     

Evidence for estrogenic endocrine disruption in an offshore flatfish, the dab (Limanda limanda L.)

Dab (Limanda limanda) caught in UK offshore waters show evidence of being exposed to estrogenic endocrine disrupters at a relatively low level. Two of 449 males caught between June and July 2005 had markedly elevated levels of vitellogenin (VTG; 21 and 750 microg/ml) and the remainder ranged from <0.01 to 8.6 microg/ml. Omitting the two outliers, there was a very significant positive relationship with the mass of individual males (a feature noted in previous studies on cod). Mean VTG concentrations in males differed significantly between sites. The site with the highest mean (1.6 microg/ml) was North East of the Dogger Bank and the site with the lowest (0.04 microg/ml) was in Cardigan Bay. Mean VTG concentrations in all North Sea fish were significantly higher than English Channel and Irish Sea fish, but this difference disappeared when fish mass was taken into account. VTG concentrations showed no relationship to water depth, stage of sexual maturity or age of the males. Sixty selected male plasmas were assayed for 17beta-estradiol but only two had measurable amounts (assay limit 0.04 ng/ml). Despite being the start of summer, the gonads of many of the males and females (especially those caught in the North Sea) showed signs of sexual maturity (presence of sperm in males and vitellogenic eggs in females). Many females had high VTG concentrations (up to 14 mg/ml) and 78 out of 80 had measurable concentrations of 17beta-estradiol. The cause of elevated VTG levels in male dab is unknown. As seen in cod, the presence of affected males does not appear to be linked to proximity to land or to known point sources of endocrine disrupters. However, our data, showing that larger fish are more likely to have elevated VTG concentrations, suggests a gradual accumulation by marine fish, probably through feeding, of persistent (probably relatively weak) estrogenic compounds.     

Ingress of Brachyuran Crab Post-larvae to the Newport River Estuary

Planktonic larvae of estuarine species often develop in the coastal ocean and return to estuaries using favorable currents. This study investigated spatial distributions of brachyuran crab post-larvae during ingress to the Newport River estuary, North Carolina, USA (34°41′ N, 76°40′ W). Nearshore plankton tows were conducted across the inlet to the estuary. Settlement on passive ‘hog’s hair’ collectors was simultaneously monitored in each of four estuarine channels. Callinectes sapidus density was highest east of the inlet, whereas relative estuarine abundance was higher in western channels. In separate sampling with collectors at coastal and estuarine locations, spatial distributions of post-larvae were consistent through time but differed for C. sapidus, Uca spp., and Pachygrapsus transversus. The diel timing of C. sapidus settlement on collectors was determined at the coast and compared to previous studies of settlement in the estuary. Behavioral responses to environmental cues may alter transport pathways from those predicted by hydrodynamic models.     

The variation of ENSO characteristics associated with atmospheric parameter perturbations in a coupled model

We analyse the differences in the properties of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a set of 17 coupled integrations with the flux-adjusted, 19-level HadCM3 model with perturbed atmospheric parameters. Within this ensemble, the standard deviation of the NINO3.4 deseasonalised SSTs ranges from 0.6 to 1.3 K. The systematic changes in the properties of the ENSO with increasing amplitude confirm that ENSO in HadCM3 is prevalently a surface (or SST) mode. The tropical-Pacific SST variability in the ensemble of coupled integrations correlates positively with the SST variability in the corresponding ensemble of atmosphere models coupled with a static mixed-layer ocean (“slab” models) perturbed with the same changes in atmospheric parameters. Comparison with the respective coupled ENSO-neutral climatologies and with the slab-model climatologies indicates low-cloud cover to be an important controlling factor of the strength of the ENSO within the ensemble. Our analysis suggests that, in the HadCM3 model, increased SST variability localised in the south-east tropical Pacific, not originating from ENSO and associated with increased amounts of tropical stratocumulus cloud, causes increased ENSO variability via an atmospheric bridge mechanism. The relationship with cloud cover also results in a negative correlation between the ENSO activity and the model’s climate sensitivity to doubling CO₂.